EugeneF
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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5 pm advisory is out........
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.3 N...76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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I've put up a topic for closures, etc.
Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here
Please, that type of information should go there.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Also...the Forecast advisory at 5pm does NOT bring the storm back to hurricane status before hitting florida, but reintensifies the storm over the atlantic hitting the Carolinas as a CAT 1
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
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TS watch extended up the Florida west coast to Englewood now.
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Yes the intensity of the storm is the major difference. However, we should all keep in mind that while the is good in most instances with tracks, they aren't so hot at predicting intensity. So keep your eyes open.. Anything can and will happen.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 724
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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I don't see how this could NOT get stronger.To me it looks like it will soon be in an area that is almost perfect for it to intensify,I would like someone to explain the thinking on this downgrade.They do admit that they are not good at intensity,But this seems very strange to me.No shear and SST's in the uper 80's?????
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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They may think the max winds are much lower then 40mph, but could not make it offical because of lack of recon.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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The discussion is not up yet and that may explain what/why they are thinking. Give it time.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The hurricane center has it getting stronger..just not to 74 mph..but it is very disorganized and the winds are probably below 40 mph now.. it has seperated from most of the convection to the east....in their opinion it probably needs to organize a good structure and move away from Cuba, but if it hugs the coast it may run out of time.....
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Mon Aug 28 2006 04:54 PM)
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WPBLU
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: west palm beach FL
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Have to agree with Bob. Very suprised that the would downgrade the impact to South Florida as a TS once it makes landfall. It should be noted however that there is still a Hurricane Watch up so perhaps they are trying to cover all bases. I wouldn't let my guard down yet. Waters are warm, sheer is nill and I think there could be some suprises on the horizon in the very early morning hours tomorrow. Would really appreciate the experts opinions on the downgrade. Thanks for all the useful info on this site..
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1088
Loc: fl
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Thats simple....lack of time to generate up to H status....12 hrs-24hrs ..it wont go from1007mb-989....can it? yeah...but unlikely..thats why H watch is still inaffect....
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WYATT
Unregistered
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NO OBSERVABLE DATA CAN BE COLLECTED FROM FLIGHTS WHILE THE STORM IS OVER CUBA. NO FLY ZONE! THIS MAY EXPLAINE THE CONFUSION COMING FROM . I HAVE A FRIEND THERE IN THE BUNKER NOW AND THEY SAID DON'T CONNT ON ANY REAL INFO UNTIL IT GETS OVER WATER.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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They are going to wait and see what happens once it comes off of Cuba..which looks like it will happen soon. They are privy to more information than we are and right now does not look very healthy. Things are very fluid now....if they need to they will make changes to the watches/warnings. In any case, if you have been in the cone, you should be ready by now.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Actually, the forecast out so far - i.e, absent the discussion - does not clarify whether the predicted intensity AT LANDFALL is 60 kt (strong tropical storm) or 65 kt (weak hurricane). The forecast point is slightly inland, so essentially the has predicted it to be just below hurricane strength a bit inland, which suggests it would be 60kt or 65 kt at landfall.
But more importantly, the difference is insignificant. A strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane, separated by only 5 kt, would inflict similar damage. (And of course, the usual caveat about uncertainties regarding predicted intensity apply.)
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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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Let me remind folks that last year when it was near Florida, it went over the warm waters and reached Cat 1 Status before landfall. The waters are very warm cuz the last time I checked some buoy's the waters were near 88 Degrees Fahrenheit of projected path.
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My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4
Michael.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Regarding my last post, there's the clarification from the re: the predicted intensity - just below hurricane strength at landfall.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Colleen's right it is very close to leaving Cuba. We'll have to see what it does once it gets it's first breath of water after holding it all day> 
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I think the discussion sums this up very well..I did notice a shift in the , which is why the west coast needs to pay attention..it is speeding up somewhat, and if it can spend a bit more time over water, maybe going up the west coast as the UKMET has it, it could get stronger and be a cat 1 hurricane...keep watching
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
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why are they thinking that the path will go more east than west?
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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