Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Invest93L High Probability in the Atlantic This Week (70%) Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 24 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3199 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
EugeneF
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: starwise]
      #71992 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:36 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: EugeneF]
      #71995 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:38 PM

5 pm advisory is out........

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.3 N...76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #71996 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:39 PM

I've put up a topic for closures, etc.

Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here

Please, that type of information should go there.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72003 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:42 PM

Also...the Forecast advisory at 5pm does NOT bring the storm back to hurricane status before hitting florida, but reintensifies the storm over the atlantic hitting the Carolinas as a CAT 1

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72004 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:43 PM

TS watch extended up the Florida west coast to Englewood now.

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72007 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:47 PM

Yes the intensity of the storm is the major difference. However, we should all keep in mind that while the NHC is good in most instances with tracks, they aren't so hot at predicting intensity. So keep your eyes open.. Anything can and will happen.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #72008 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:48 PM

I don't see how this could NOT get stronger.To me it looks like it will soon be in an area that is almost perfect for it to intensify,I would like someone to explain the NHC thinking on this downgrade.They do admit that they are not good at intensity,But this seems very strange to me.No shear and SST's in the uper 80's?????

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72009 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM

They may think the max winds are much lower then 40mph, but could not make it offical because of lack of recon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72010 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM

The discussion is not up yet and that may explain what/why they are thinking. Give it time.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72011 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:53 PM

The hurricane center has it getting stronger..just not to 74 mph..but it is very disorganized and the winds are probably below 40 mph now.. it has seperated from most of the convection to the east....in their opinion it probably needs to organize a good structure and move away from Cuba, but if it hugs the coast it may run out of time.....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Mon Aug 28 2006 04:54 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WPBLU
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: west palm beach FL
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #72015 - Mon Aug 28 2006 04:57 PM

Have to agree with Bob. Very suprised that the NHC would downgrade the impact to South Florida as a TS once it makes landfall. It should be noted however that there is still a Hurricane Watch up so perhaps they are trying to cover all bases. I wouldn't let my guard down yet. Waters are warm, sheer is nill and I think there could be some suprises on the horizon in the very early morning hours tomorrow. Would really appreciate the experts opinions on the downgrade. Thanks for all the useful info on this site..

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WPBLU]
      #72017 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:01 PM

Thats simple....lack of time to generate up to H status....12 hrs-24hrs ..it wont go from1007mb-989....can it? yeah...but unlikely..thats why H watch is still inaffect....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WYATT
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WPBLU]
      #72018 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:02 PM

NO OBSERVABLE DATA CAN BE COLLECTED FROM FLIGHTS WHILE THE STORM IS OVER CUBA. NO FLY ZONE! THIS MAY EXPLAINE THE CONFUSION COMING FROM NHC. I HAVE A FRIEND THERE IN THE BUNKER NOW AND THEY SAID DON'T CONNT ON ANY REAL INFO UNTIL IT GETS OVER WATER.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WPBLU]
      #72019 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:03 PM

They are going to wait and see what happens once it comes off of Cuba..which looks like it will happen soon. They are privy to more information than we are and right now Ernesto does not look very healthy. Things are very fluid now....if they need to they will make changes to the watches/warnings. In any case, if you have been in the cone, you should be ready by now.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: WPBLU]
      #72020 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:04 PM

Actually, the NHC forecast out so far - i.e, absent the discussion - does not clarify whether the predicted intensity AT LANDFALL is 60 kt (strong tropical storm) or 65 kt (weak hurricane). The forecast point is slightly inland, so essentially the NHC has predicted it to be just below hurricane strength a bit inland, which suggests it would be 60kt or 65 kt at landfall.

But more importantly, the difference is insignificant. A strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane, separated by only 5 kt, would inflict similar damage. (And of course, the usual caveat about uncertainties regarding predicted intensity apply.)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: scottsvb]
      #72021 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM

Let me remind folks that Katrina last year when it was near Florida, it went over the warm waters and reached Cat 1 Status before landfall. The waters are very warm cuz the last time I checked some buoy's the waters were near 88 Degrees Fahrenheit of Ernesto projected path.

--------------------

My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4

Michael.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #72022 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM

Regarding my last post, there's the clarification from the NHC re: the predicted intensity - just below hurricane strength at landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72023 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:06 PM

Colleen's right it is very close to leaving Cuba. We'll have to see what it does once it gets it's first breath of water after holding it all day>

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: amonty]
      #72025 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:11 PM

I think the NHC discussion sums this up very well..I did notice a shift in the GFS, which is why the west coast needs to pay attention..it is speeding up somewhat, and if it can spend a bit more time over water, maybe going up the west coast as the UKMET has it, it could get stronger and be a cat 1 hurricane...keep watching

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: amonty]
      #72026 - Mon Aug 28 2006 05:15 PM

why are they thinking that the path will go more east than west?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 41844

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center