MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11PM Update
Tropical storm warnings now extend on the west coast up to Bonita Beach.
It's expected to make landfall in south or southwest Florida crossing the Keys as a tropical storm.
Some strengthening will occur when gets over water (it's still not quite off Cuba yet) but most likely not enough to take it to hurricane strength.
Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here
Original Update
's center of circulation is still inland in Cuba, but it is nearing the exit point. Still considered a weak tropical storm, it will begin to emerge into a much more favorible area north of Cuba.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.
Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.
is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction. Ahead of it lies the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east).
What it does not have is time. The critical question is this... Can redevelop the inner core and bomb before it gets to shore? The National Hurricane Center official forecast does not allow for this, and it is likely correct. The chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. The track should be very close to right on, and the and globals that take it more over the peninsula but keep it weaker than it ought to be.
West florida isn't out of the woods in case it remains weaker and sweeps around through the straights or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. Once it crosses florida it will again have another chance to develop.
The rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for . there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with Florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in Charleston, Myrtle Beach.. or maybe up in North Carolina.
More to come tonight as the system progresses.
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing with him.
Event Related Links
Cuban Radar near
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL
West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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So will recon go in as soon as it exits or do they have a set time in which they will be flying? Just curious as to how far away the storm has to be before they are not in their air space?
Thanks,
Christine 
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Post deleted by HanKFranK
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Derek Sutherland
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The 20:00 EDT update from the should be out very soon. It will be very interesting to learn if the track has shifted to the left.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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offdalip
Unregistered
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I looked at the 5pm track and it has landfall just south of miami
BUT
I just saw Steve Jerve on tampa viper show that the vipr models actually have it
hiting around marco island / ft myers and coasting up the west coast inland finally thru sarasota
Viper hit it during charlie, anybody think it could be accurate this far out ?
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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From another thread just a few minutes ago:
I would not be surprised by anything this system does. That being said, the steering winds aloft are westerly, but smaller systems are not as influenced by steering winds as are larger systems, but with the COC looking like it is at 75W23Nor thereabouts, and a strong steering current at 1000-1010 hPa, I would not be a bit surprised to see a slight westerly trend just before landfall in South FL that will change the whole scenario. The convection seems to be wrapping up a bit according to the last IR look. The other thing that makes me think that may be a trend is the deepening of shear winds to the NE of this storm of 20kts. courtesy of an ULL NW of Yucatan,it may attempt to escape-the deepinging NE side being earlier in the forecast period than the NW side. I still think this system has many challenges and am just waiting for the other shoe to drop at 11. I can't believe we are out of "gotchas" yet.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I found the issue why is so confusing by blowing up the image of his central core and getting this: 
Jokes aside, I think that when finally emerges and is off of the coast for about 10 to 12 hours, it will become better organized and I think the models will get a pretty good lock on its structure allowing a little more certainty on his eventual course. I am not sold that he is going to make it all the way to the SW coast. I think this is an Everglades or SE Florida system. If the trough that is suppose to be digging down slows, maybe the SW coast. For now, I would say the odds are less then 30 %.
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Jim
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dredlox
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
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I generally put little faith in local news, but Steve Jerve and Viper are nails. That will be pretty interesting to see if they are correct
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Two stations use the model: Channel 8 and BN9...and both were showing it coming in around Ft. Myers area. That being said, I have no idea how reliable they are with a tropical system this far away.
One thing I will mention: ALL of the mets that I have listened to tonight are mentioning the more westward shifts in the different model tracks. Unlike 4-6 hours ago, they seem more concerned that this is becoming a trend. If it is, it will show up in the 11pm advisory. They just showed a spaghetti model run, and a lot of them have shifted left.. I will try and find it and post it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Yep the last frames of the visible show a storm getting it's spin on and convection bursting near the center. I highly doubt it'll make anymore than Cat 1 status. Interesting note the as of the 5pm gives Ernie a 40% chance of Cat 1 status before landfall. I'm gonna keep myself busy till 11 so I don't go nuts watching these loops  .
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Ernesto moving WNW now so what does that mean as far as intensity and track for me up in NC?
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W.D. Duncan
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Reading the forecast and discussion at 5pm, and then looking at the model runs on various sites... I have to wonder slightly where the is coming from with their forecast. All of the models generally put landfall on the SW coast, while the forecast puts landfall near Miami. The water vapor loop shows a pattern that, to me, would favor a more westerly track at least in the short term, assuming that even survives.
The 5pm discussion mentioned that the circulation had become ill-defined. What would a greatly-reduced system result in in terms of possible future track changes? For example, if actually dissipates as a tropical cyclone (loses the LLC), would the remnant still be pulled northward?
Edit to add: I find it a bit disconcerting that we're now in the "short term" wind in terms of potential U.S. landfall, and the computers seem to still have no clue what is going to do.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 28 2006 08:01 PM)
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sprghill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL
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the new has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Still way too hard to figure out an intensity and track for North Carolina. Can't even really get it down for Florida yet. Probably will be a few days before it becomes clearer. Hard enough to predict intensity as it is, let alone when there is going to be a lot of land interaction.
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Jim
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
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Quote:
the new has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.
It is most likely the loss of NOAA recon data injection which has been giving it a "more accurate" (I quote because you can basically take models with a grain of salt sometimes) projection of forecasting. Fortunately, I'm sure those flights will be able to resume in a few hours. I wouldn't count those models into your forecasts, as the loss of recon is a huge hit to the track forecast, as well as the intensity.
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MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
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A quick look at the water vapor loop shows Erine just sucked in a big scoop of dry air. He also looks to be hugging the coast. If it's going to gain steam it needs to get way clear of the coastline -and soon. The longer he continues to sputter the better.
I still see an east to west flow over southern FL, thus a SW landfall can't be ruled out completely, somewhere around Shark River area of the Everglades maybe?
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
the new has shifted more the the west. could this be a trend or a mistake in the model.
JMO, but what I posted earlier has some definite credence and I see trend more westerly. I think there may be a window of opportunity for the system. I see some wiggle room for it to the west and we may see some corrections in the next few hours. Still not seeing a major re-intensification, though. The period would be too short and until it encounters shear again to it's NW. I could see a SW'ly entry and cuts across the state, maybe like Central FL, but certainly not as a major event, to slide around the HP in GA currently.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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They have a plane in there now, if BN9 is correct. As far as the model shifts, this has been going on all day long. It could be because we haven't had recon, and it could be because they are reacting to other features in the atmosphere.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Is there not an 8pm graphic now or am I just not seeing it???
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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They would only issue a new graphic for an intermediate advisory if watches or warnings change. There were no changes, so there will be no new graphic.
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Jim
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