BillD
Weather Analyst
Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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I have been staring at the WV loop for the last hour. I agree with your observations, however the high is still shifting eastward. will turn, but maybe not as quickly as the current forecast takes it. The 06Z has shifted left, and I would expect the 11:00 AM advisory to shift the track a little left as well.
Bill
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
if you take a step back and look at the wider visible loop you can see it is getting a little bit more classic look to it. Dr. Knabb from the has said that the center is still moving in a NW motion but not to necessarily focus on the center because much of the bad weather extends north and east of it. It still would not surprise me if this got close to hurricane strength. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
Please!, don't watch all of 's wobble at close range. Take a break every now and then. Check CNN and for their updates.
CNN is updating on the hour and half-hour.
TWC is updating at their usual times right now.
Top and bottom of the hour, and at 50 minutes past the hour.
Please note that the direction of storm movement is averaged over a 12 hour period.
This is what happened with in 2004. If it looks like he's turned and headed for you. ALWAYS err on the side of caution. But be cautious in doing your evactuation... Stop signs, red lights, etc. ~danielw
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hemster
Unregistered
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At this point, a small shift to the west doesnt really matter a whole lot. The track is pretty darn close to where the storm will be (with tens of miles imo). No matter what the track says or will say, this thing will wobble to the north south east or west. Its time to stop watching the skinny black line.
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hofloka
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
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Just check the and about four of the models show like it's coming thru Tampa bay area, could this be possible???
Any comments???
Edited by hofloka (Tue Aug 29 2006 09:44 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I agree with a "small shift to the west".
Unless that small shift to the west allows the center to be closer or over the GOM. That would/ could start a whole new ball game.
One of the TV Broadcasters made a statement this morning about possibly going over the Everglades.
...The Everglades aren't exactly Terra Firma, and the MET he was talking with concurred and said they are more of a Warm Swamp.
If you live on the West Coast of FL...especailly South of Cedar Key. Watch this storm closely!
New RECON is inbound and should be there within about 90 minutes or less. They are tasked with a 15Z fix and that's about 75 minutes from now.
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bhnole
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
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Quote:
I am interested in the dynamic that is being touted to turn the system to the north...in the NW Gulf a vigorous ULL seems to be affecting the southern aspect of the trough that is moving into the SE today and is the mechanism predicted to break down the ridge and allow the weakness to pull to the N and then NE...
As of now that area seems to be setting up in the Ft. Walton Beach area and the upper flow ahead of is SE-NW'd for some distance...
I just wonder of that ULL dynamic in the NW Gulf will keep the high from being eroded on its southern aspect enough in time to allow the turn as currently forcast?...I have some doubts on this.
Any one care to comment?
I have noticed that as well. Most of the models appear to favor this storm running along the Gulf coast offshore before turning inland near Tampa. It appears to me the is dragging their feet on changing their projected path to keep South Floridians on their toes.
It is becoming more probable the Northern turn will be delayed due to the ULL interaction with the front. I think Tampa to the Big Bend are is a more probable landfall area at this time.
But as always stay on your toes. is proof enough small systems can change direction quickly.
Edited by bhnole (Tue Aug 29 2006 09:47 AM)
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
I have been staring at the WV loop for the last hour. I agree with your observations, however the high is still shifting eastward. will turn, but maybe not as quickly as the current forecast takes it. The 06Z has shifted left, and I would expect the 11:00 AM advisory to shift the track a little left as well.
Bill
Watching some of the loops, I have noticed, that the wrapping of the front from the Atlantic seems to be adding a steering component and that is what seems to be driving the system WNW. How long that has some persistance, may depend on the trailing edge of the front.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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TurboTech
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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Very intresting to see the latest loop. The strom seems to be taking on the Comma shape. Wondering if it will
have time to close up. Ernie is in crunch time. The current convection is looking more impressive by the hour.
At the same time I am no professional and do not know what I am talking about.
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
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A quick question for our resident experts.
I notice that a blob of convection has fired up just offshore of the Florida panhandle. I'm just curious as to what that is, and how might be influencing the feature.
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jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.55N 81.90W
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This is getting too scarey - is Fort Myers in danger? I really respect everyone's opinion on this board - last year during we got some excellent advice - but Fort Myers is just not being mentioned re: - anyone?
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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Hey guys, I know there's and some of you guys in Florida are about to get a decent blow, but I just wanted to say that if you get a chance, please don't forget the 1,400 people who died a year ago today in .
I am going to a few things later on, most notably the dedication of a cross that they have erected in the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (the Mr. GO) in rememberance of the "funnel" that sent a 20 plus foot storm surge into my hometown killing 151 in my parish alone.
My thoughts and prayers are with you guys over there as you prepare for yet another storm, and also with everyone who with me experienced the worst day of their lives one year ago today.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
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If you go back 24hrs to the 8am Monday (yesterday) forecast track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/graphics/AT05/15.AL0506W.GIF
You see that the has nailed it to this point across the board to this point...nailed it
I see no reason to 2nd guess them. On almost every forecast, they've nailed the next 24hrs, it was beyond that it got dicey.
So. Fla is within that 24 hrs, no reason to think they'll flub it now.
From what I see of the SAT images, their forecast makes sense
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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There are a lot of questions as to where will come ashore. Being a layman (not a Met) here's what I think.
1-It will come ashore within the next 24 hours
2- It will come ashore some place in southern Florida (either eastern or western)
3-It will exit someplace on Florida's northcentral east coast
4-We're all going to get a lot of rain
5-We're all going to get a lot of wind
6-If you're panicing now you're not prepared.
7-We will all loose electricty (hey after all its FP&L)
8-The sun will come out by Thursday and Labor Day weekend is supposed to be great.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:00 AM)
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
This is getting too scarey - is Fort Myers in danger? I really respect everyone's opinion on this board - last year during we got some excellent advice - but Fort Myers is just not being mentioned re: - anyone?
If you're in the cone, you should rush your preparations to completion. TS or Cat 1/2 - should change your plans little. As always, almost everyone here defers to the because dissent leads to confusion.
*Fort Myers is also still under a hurricane watch, so you should have your answer right there. I doubt any of the watches will be dropped at this time since they're in-line with most of the models. However, I suspect that they may in fact be extended in future updates.
Edited by tpratch (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:20 AM)
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hofloka
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
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Now if the computer models are right with coming to Tampa Bay
What can we expect here, since thetemp of the waters in gulf are high 88 89
any comments?
Edited by hofloka (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:12 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 780
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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If you look above at some of the earlier posts from our moderator, he comments that Cedar Key soputh should pay close attention...that includes Ft. myers..
Whereas Ft. Myers and Cedar Key are 200+ miles apart on the coast line.. in E-W mileage it may only be 50 miles; i.e. if traverses 50 miles more west than first thought before going North it will intersect the coastline about considerably further North
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doug
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Londovir
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 94
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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It looks a little to the left and slightly below based on comparing the chart you linked with the current 8am plot. I think this reflects the very slight, very subtle leftward trend of the models nicely. (If you shrink/layer them in Photoshop you can see the slight leftward jog.)
I am keeping a close eye on the local Polk County EOC operations here at school. We are expecting word from the School Board in about 1 hour or so on whether there will be a closing of schools tomorrow or not. (The advantage of being tied into the school system.)
If I hear anything, I'll be sure to report it on the other board under closings.
For now, everyone keep the folks from in your thoughts and prayers, and reserve another prayer for those who will inevitably be affected by , one way or another. It's a poignant way to reflect the anniversary of the tragedy.
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Londovir
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Ginger
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
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As I look at this visible loop, it seems to me it's headed NW in the same path its bands have taken, over the middle keys and into the gulf. And that burst near the panhandle is impressive!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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Florida Native
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dingo1
Unregistered
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Hey...I just looked at the model animation too. I live on St. Pete Beach. Generally, I'm prepared for what I thought this storm would be as of last night -- a run up the East coast or center of state, meaning probably weak trop storm winds and light flooding on my side. I am NOT prepared for a direct hit of a cat 1/2 on my area, coming from the Gulf (which means I have to board up and evac).
In condering what to do next: say those TB models are correct or close to correct. What's the time frame for a strike (meaning how long have I got to decide what I'm doing and do what I'm doing)? And wouldn't there be a stronger likelihood of a stronger storm (strong cat 1 or cat 2) if it gets extra time over the Gulf?
Waiting for the 11 am from , but one of the reasons I come here (and contribute $$ to the site) is I like to get some more views than simply the track...
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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What IS that blob of convection off of the panhandle? I've been watching it all morning and can't figure out whether it's associated with or not. Does it have any influence on the storm?
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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