Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Watching 98L in the Gulf as Cristobal continues out to sea.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 55 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3229 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
35.6N 67.8W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 985mb
Moving:
Ne at 29 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 98LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)
BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: doug]
      #72326 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:28 AM

I have been staring at the WV loop for the last hour. I agree with your observations, however the high is still shifting eastward. Ernesto will turn, but maybe not as quickly as the current forecast takes it. The 06Z GFDL has shifted left, and I would expect the 11:00 AM advisory to shift the track a little left as well.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #72327 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:31 AM

Quote:

if you take a step back and look at the wider visible loop you can see it is getting a little bit more classic look to it. Dr. Knabb from the NHC has said that the center is still moving in a NW motion but not to necessarily focus on the center because much of the bad weather extends north and east of it. It still would not surprise me if this got close to hurricane strength. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html




Please!, don't watch all of Ernesto's wobble at close range. Take a break every now and then. Check CNN and TWC for their updates.
CNN is updating on the hour and half-hour.
TWC is updating at their usual times right now.
Top and bottom of the hour, and at 50 minutes past the hour.

Please note that the NHC direction of storm movement is averaged over a 12 hour period.
This is what happened with Charley in 2004. If it looks like he's turned and headed for you. ALWAYS err on the side of caution. But be cautious in doing your evactuation... Stop signs, red lights, etc. ~danielw


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hemster
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: BillD]
      #72328 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:35 AM

At this point, a small shift to the west doesnt really matter a whole lot. The track is pretty darn close to where the storm will be (with tens of miles imo). No matter what the track says or will say, this thing will wobble to the north south east or west. Its time to stop watching the skinny black line.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72329 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:42 AM

Just check the Skeetobite and about four of the models show like it's coming thru Tampa bay area, could this be possible???
Any comments???

Edited by hofloka (Tue Aug 29 2006 09:44 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: hemster]
      #72330 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:43 AM

I agree with a "small shift to the west".

Unless that small shift to the west allows the center to be closer or over the GOM. That would/ could start a whole new ball game.

One of the TV Broadcasters made a statement this morning about Ernesto possibly going over the Everglades.
...The Everglades aren't exactly Terra Firma, and the MET he was talking with concurred and said they are more of a Warm Swamp.

If you live on the West Coast of FL...especailly South of Cedar Key. Watch this storm closely!

New RECON is inbound and should be there within about 90 minutes or less. They are tasked with a 15Z fix and that's about 75 minutes from now.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bhnole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: doug]
      #72331 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:44 AM

Quote:

I am interested in the dynamic that is being touted to turn the system to the north...in the NW Gulf a vigorous ULL seems to be affecting the southern aspect of the trough that is moving into the SE today and is the mechanism predicted to break down the ridge and allow the weakness to pull Ernesto to the N and then NE...
As of now that area seems to be setting up in the Ft. Walton Beach area and the upper flow ahead of Ernesto is SE-NW'd for some distance...
I just wonder of that ULL dynamic in the NW Gulf will keep the high from being eroded on its southern aspect enough in time to allow the turn as currently forcast?...I have some doubts on this.
Any one care to comment?




I have noticed that as well. Most of the models appear to favor this storm running along the Gulf coast offshore before turning inland near Tampa. It appears to me the NHC is dragging their feet on changing their projected path to keep South Floridians on their toes.

It is becoming more probable the Northern turn will be delayed due to the ULL interaction with the front. I think Tampa to the Big Bend are is a more probable landfall area at this time.

But as always stay on your toes. Charley is proof enough small systems can change direction quickly.

Edited by bhnole (Tue Aug 29 2006 09:47 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: BillD]
      #72332 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:46 AM

Quote:

I have been staring at the WV loop for the last hour. I agree with your observations, however the high is still shifting eastward. Ernesto will turn, but maybe not as quickly as the current forecast takes it. The 06Z GFDL has shifted left, and I would expect the 11:00 AM advisory to shift the track a little left as well.

Bill




Watching some of the loops, I have noticed, that the wrapping of the front from the Atlantic seems to be adding a steering component and that is what seems to be driving the system WNW. How long that has some persistance, may depend on the trailing edge of the front.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TurboTech
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: hemster]
      #72333 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM

Very intresting to see the latest loop. The strom seems to be taking on the Comma shape. Wondering if it will
have time to close up. Ernie is in crunch time. The current convection is looking more impressive by the hour.
At the same time I am no professional and do not know what I am talking about.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: danielw]
      #72334 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM

A quick question for our resident experts.

I notice that a blob of convection has fired up just offshore of the Florida panhandle. I'm just curious as to what that is, and how Ernesto might be influencing the feature.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.55N 81.90W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: bhnole]
      #72335 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:51 AM

This is getting too scarey - is Fort Myers in danger? I really respect everyone's opinion on this board - last year during Wilma we got some excellent advice - but Fort Myers is just not being mentioned re: Ernesto - anyone?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: TampaRand]
      #72336 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:53 AM

Hey guys, I know there's Ernesto and some of you guys in Florida are about to get a decent blow, but I just wanted to say that if you get a chance, please don't forget the 1,400 people who died a year ago today in Katrina.

I am going to a few things later on, most notably the dedication of a cross that they have erected in the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (the Mr. GO) in rememberance of the "funnel" that sent a 20 plus foot storm surge into my hometown killing 151 in my parish alone.

My thoughts and prayers are with you guys over there as you prepare for yet another storm, and also with everyone who with me experienced the worst day of their lives one year ago today.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 66
Loc: 28.33N 80.69W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: jeangfl]
      #72337 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:58 AM

If you go back 24hrs to the 8am Monday (yesterday) forecast track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/graphics/AT05/15.AL0506W.GIF
You see that the NHC has nailed it to this point across the board to this point...nailed it

I see no reason to 2nd guess them. On almost every forecast, they've nailed the next 24hrs, it was beyond that it got dicey.

So. Fla is within that 24 hrs, no reason to think they'll flub it now.

From what I see of the SAT images, their forecast makes sense


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: jeangfl]
      #72339 - Tue Aug 29 2006 09:59 AM

There are a lot of questions as to where Ernesto will come ashore. Being a layman (not a Met) here's what I think.

1-It will come ashore within the next 24 hours
2- It will come ashore some place in southern Florida (either eastern or western)
3-It will exit someplace on Florida's northcentral east coast
4-We're all going to get a lot of rain
5-We're all going to get a lot of wind
6-If you're panicing now you're not prepared.
7-We will all loose electricty (hey after all its FP&L)
8-The sun will come out by Thursday and Labor Day weekend is supposed to be great.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:00 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: jeangfl]
      #72341 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:09 AM

Quote:

This is getting too scarey - is Fort Myers in danger? I really respect everyone's opinion on this board - last year during Wilma we got some excellent advice - but Fort Myers is just not being mentioned re: Ernesto - anyone?




If you're in the cone, you should rush your preparations to completion. TS or Cat 1/2 - should change your plans little. As always, almost everyone here defers to the NHC because dissent leads to confusion.


*Fort Myers is also still under a hurricane watch, so you should have your answer right there. I doubt any of the watches will be dropped at this time since they're in-line with most of the models. However, I suspect that they may in fact be extended in future updates.

Edited by tpratch (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:20 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: MikeC]
      #72342 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:11 AM

Now if the computer models are right with Ernesto coming to Tampa Bay
What can we expect here, since thetemp of the waters in gulf are high 88 89
any comments?

Edited by hofloka (Tue Aug 29 2006 10:12 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 829
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: jeangfl]
      #72343 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:15 AM

If you look above at some of the earlier posts from our moderator, he comments that Cedar Key soputh should pay close attention...that includes Ft. myers..
Whereas Ft. Myers and Cedar Key are 200+ miles apart on the coast line.. in E-W mileage it may only be 50 miles; i.e. if Ernesto traverses 50 miles more west than first thought before going North it will intersect the coastline about considerably further North

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 94
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: engicedave]
      #72345 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:19 AM

It looks a little to the left and slightly below based on comparing the chart you linked with the current 8am plot. I think this reflects the very slight, very subtle leftward trend of the models nicely. (If you shrink/layer them in Photoshop you can see the slight leftward jog.)

I am keeping a close eye on the local Polk County EOC operations here at school. We are expecting word from the School Board in about 1 hour or so on whether there will be a closing of schools tomorrow or not. (The advantage of being tied into the school system.)

If I hear anything, I'll be sure to report it on the other board under closings.

For now, everyone keep the folks from Katrina in your thoughts and prayers, and reserve another prayer for those who will inevitably be affected by Ernesto, one way or another. It's a poignant way to reflect the anniversary of the Katrina tragedy.

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ginger
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Londovir]
      #72347 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:26 AM

As I look at this visible loop, it seems to me it's headed NW in the same path its bands have taken, over the middle keys and into the gulf. And that burst near the panhandle is impressive!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Florida Native


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dingo1
Unregistered




Re: Models for Tampa Bay? [Re: doug]
      #72348 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:27 AM

Hey...I just looked at the Skeetobite model animation too. I live on St. Pete Beach. Generally, I'm prepared for what I thought this storm would be as of last night -- a run up the East coast or center of state, meaning probably weak trop storm winds and light flooding on my side. I am NOT prepared for a direct hit of a cat 1/2 on my area, coming from the Gulf (which means I have to board up and evac).

In condering what to do next: say those TB models are correct or close to correct. What's the time frame for a strike (meaning how long have I got to decide what I'm doing and do what I'm doing)? And wouldn't there be a stronger likelihood of a stronger storm (strong cat 1 or cat 2) if it gets extra time over the Gulf?

Waiting for the 11 am from NHC, but one of the reasons I come here (and contribute $$ to the site) is I like to get some more views than simply the NHC track...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Ginger]
      #72349 - Tue Aug 29 2006 10:30 AM

What IS that blob of convection off of the panhandle? I've been watching it all morning and can't figure out whether it's associated with Ernesto or not. Does it have any influence on the storm?

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 73062

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center