force2005
Verified CFHC User
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I am not saying there is a chance that this storm will be a , only to show that , did the same thing last year in respects as to movement through the keys. That is all. Not wishing anything of the sort of another , but trying to show the possibilities are there for the storm to circumvent the models as to which direction it will take through the keys.
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
This says more than anything. Models shifting slightly west. Track forecast is east of guidance which leaves them open for error. We will have to wait until the 5:00 to get a better idea now. Geez.
I wouldn't get your hopes too high for them moving it further west. The error has narrowed a lot in the last two forecast packages, especially since landfall will be later on today.
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
I am not saying there is a chance that this storm will be a , only to show that , did the same thing last year in respects as to movement through the keys. That is all. Not wishing anything of the sort of another , but trying to show the possibilities are there for the storm to circumvent the models as to which direction it will take through the keys.
When did move through the keys?
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JoeFL
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
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Not to sure about the current center fix on the storm, hopefully recon will give us a better idea this afternoon. My thinking of landfall between Sarasota and Naples area still looks like a decent possibility considering its more westerly movement thus far.
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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It's impossible to tell the direction since you can't find the center. I mentioned this type of situation a few days ago. So at this point in time the location of center doesn't really matter, just keep an eye on radar out of Key West as that will tell you were the bad cells/feeder bands are since those will contain the nast "weather" (rain/wind) associated with this storm.
Still looks like Marco Island landfall to me, if you look at the vapor loop teh dry air over FL is pulled north. i expect Erensto will follow that channel with a slight curve. In other words NW then more NNW then finally N as it rounds the tips of southern FL. Of course since (as mentioned above) the center is hard to locate it near impossible to truely figure out with much accuracy. Those of you on the west coast will feel some gusty winds but us the east coast will be getting more winds and plenty of rain.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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force2005
Verified CFHC User
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Katrina was expected to turn more to the notrh of Miami, but it actually turned more of a southerly component, that pushed it well west on intended track.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Is it possible we could have multiple landings?
1-The Keys
2-Glades
3- Over the gulf (for a few minutes) and into Ft. Myers Beach
4-South Carolina
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
Katrina was expected to turn more to the notrh of Miami, but it actually turned more of a southerly component, that pushed it well west on intended track.
There were multiple factors involved in that which are not present in this situation, so I doubt that'll be happening this time around. I would be more worried now about intensity forecasts than track. The has basically got that under control at this point.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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Quote:
I really wish the Watch along the west coast of FL would be further north at this time so the unsuspected residents of the TB area can make preps now and not 11pm tonight. To me it looks to be a Cat 1 landfall Between RSW and TPA.
Unsuspecting? If anyone lives in Florida and isn't aware there's a storm out there, personally, I think it's their own fault. I've been watching this thing ever since it first thought about forming.
How can people live in Florida (or anywhere else that's hurricane vulnerable) and NOT be paying attention?
I finally saw more houses in my area boarding up today. Finally! Now that the 11am looks like it's swinging further west towards us.
It's going to be a long week folks. If you're in Florida, you need to be paying attention.
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
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The best fix I can get is from the Pico De San Juan radar on the south central Cuban coast.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
Looks close to 23.5 79.5
This just in...
URNT12 KNHC 291510
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/14:43:20Z
B. 23 deg 29 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 301 deg 051 nm
F. 045 deg 028 kt
G. 301 deg 050 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 430 m
J. 24 C/ 430 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF308 1605A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 14:26:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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force2005
Verified CFHC User
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Looking at the latest radar out of Key West, it clearly shows a westard movement approching the keys. It seems to me that could actually slide right in between Cuba and the Keys. From there, anyones guess. Hope the next recon data shows something of a telltale sign of a northerly component, but as dictated from the latest images out of Key West, westard is the movement.
Edited by force2005 (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:22 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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saying this thing has the makings of a ... wow, we have spotted a scare-mongerer. around here you'll have a hard time selling that, unless we've got the odd member who is afraid of their shadow, or who thinks butterflies are trying to suck their blood.
ernesto continues to be a study in unchanged weakness. pressure is still set at a high 1005 mb, winds only a little faster now that the center is offshore. the continued weakness has let it drag a bit further west. looks like it's going to move over more of the peninsula... track isn't up the west coast (yet?) but to get over there it would have to remain weak for longer.
the satellite appearance has changed some, so strengthening today isn't unexpected. it only has 12 hr or so before contacting southern florida or getting very close in on the coast... maybe it'll strengthen a little, but it has so far to go that i doubt it'll be anywhere near hurricane strength. still a possibility after it exits florida, especially if the track is further right later in the period. my sentiment is probably not, but with the slight baroclinic environment it may have increased ability to maintain strength over the state, and deepen a little more quickly as it makes a run further up the coast. it's not the sort of thing to count on a great deal... has shown a persistent tendency to run over land and remain weak, and has ample opportunity to continue doing so.
HF 1522z29august
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force2005
Verified CFHC User
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I am not and I say again not referring to this as a , but only towards the aspects in how made transversed her way through the Keys. That is all.
katrina crossed miami-dade from its ne corner and monroe on the mainland... parallelled the keys to the north. no, no comparison at all. if you want a pure track analog, it would be closer to donna or the 1945 hurricane. this is a low-end tropical storm. -HF
Edited by John C (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:30 AM)
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
I am not and I say again not referring to this as a , but only towards the aspects in how made transversed her way through the Keys. That is all.
But, she didn't go through the keys. Are you talking about a different ?
Edited by John C (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:31 AM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I just want to clarify something. did not traverse the keys. It never made it in the keys. was the eleventh named storm, fifth hurricane, third major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season. It formed over the Bahamas on August 23, 2005, and crossed southern Florida as a moderate Category 1 hurricane. There was never a traversing of the keys.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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chuck struck lightning survivor
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
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The Watch has been extended North to Tarpon Springs on the west coast of FL.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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HF,
Isn't what you said a bit of a contridiction? On the one hand you said there was very little chance for strengthening and that it would be a peninsula storm. But in the next paragraph you state that, if the storm remains weak, it has a chance to get into the Gulf and strike the W. side of FL.
I mean no disrespect; you certainly know a lot more about this than I do and I hold your opinion in very high regard. I would just like a little more clarification, please. Thanks!
to get further west it would have to keep not gaining any strength. isn't really buying it any more time.. just making the turn a little later. there isn't anything to push it far enough into the gulf to make a real difference... steering is such that it would probably just recurve more sharply. really don't see this thing entering north of the naples area, most likely monroe county. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 29 2006 11:50 AM)
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I've noticed that hurricanes tend to elongate in the direction of travel as they disorganize and go . Does anyone know if there are any historic tendencies to elongate in the direction of travel if they are reorganising (but not transitioning to )?
The reason I ask is that on the sat. loops the storm just appears to me as though it is sort of elongating itself in the direction of the lower Keys, but this is probably not the case. Just curious...
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dkblostnottinghamsmoney
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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So glad this storm stayed over Cuba as long as it did....my main concern is the eventual power outages that MAY arise......think FP&L is bad ....try Peace river Coop they are terrible...I can fart real hard andd my power goes out.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 319
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ok folks.. it is time to stop the wishcasting, stop the references, etc...
Remember the forum rules before you post because I am about ready to send a few posters on a 24 hour ban.
For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year
is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember,
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
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