danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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2 PM Update
Ernesto now has 70MPH winds, just shy of hurricane strength, and is still in a good position to gain more strength.
11:30 AM Update
Hurricane watches are up from the south Santee river in South Carolina to Cape Lookout in North Carolina. is forecast to be borderline Tropical/Storm hurricane when it makes landfall near Myrtle Beach With the strengthening trends like they are, it could be very possible.
8:30 AM Update
8 AM Advisory has windspeed at 55MPH, a strengthening system, no Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the Carolinas, yet, but they may occur if the strengthening trend continues.
Recon is indicating a system still strengthening.
7:30 AM Update
Recon reports down to 996 mb, with winds roughly 60-65mph.
7AM Update
Ernesto's pressure is down to 998 millibars, and windspeed to 50 MPH, with a chance for a little more strengthening before making another landfall near the north and south Carolina borders.
1125 PM-Wednesday Update
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Update bringing Tropical Depression up to Tropical Storm status.
NOAA Buoy 41009 and NWS Melbourne Doppler radar are indicating winds at the surface and aloft in excess of 36mph.
NHC is estimating 's Maximum Sustained winds at 40 mph, East of the Center.
Do you know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, shelters, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here
Report related weather conditions /damage in your area here
Looking for someone? Have Travel plans somewhere affected by ? Ask here.
To keep things less cluttered, any of these asked on the main board will be moved/graveyarded. So use the above links please.
Also, flhurricane is now making a Long Term radar recording of and a Level 3 radar recording of .
Beyond , there is a strong wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a chance to become a depression in the next few days.
Event Related Links
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show Monday - Wednesday every night as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Recon Report Map Plot
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Ernesto
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of
Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 31 2006 09:15 PM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Daniel looks like you were right about the front shoving to the right. This from NWS site:
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-310745-
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1139 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
...ERNESTO RE-GAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THIS STATEMENT UPGRADES BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AND
UPDATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF ...MOVING THE CENTER A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST BRINGING THE CENTER INTO GEORGETOWN SOUTH OF
MYRTLE BEACH THURSDAY EVENING. IT ALSO INCREASES THE COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS TO
3 TO 5 FEET. RAINFALL IS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TO FOUR
TO EIGHT INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
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W.D. Duncan
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That was just a quick look estimate from the loops that I listed.
I'm at 17 hours and have 7 hours to go so Your eyes are much better than mine.
Question is...how far out will the front push . If it's far enought to clear Cape Hatteras that will be great. But looking at the last model run, and the forecast of 's remnants near Detriot. That's,...well... wishing.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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guess recon will show up soon, let us know if there have been any pressure falls. i wouldn't guess so as radar organization looks about the same. on satellite the storm looks fairly organized. not like it could strengthen a whole heck of a lot, but not too bad to say the least. the official track looks good. only caveat would be if deep convection started blooming and set this thing into a development slide. nothing like that as of yet.
based on the tendencies i'm seeing with the small low out near 16/48, i'd think the may have to start changing the tone of their outlooks on it. it has been maintaining a small area of deep convection most of today, and more scattered stuff appears to be developing on its eastern flank. it is getting closer to the islands, and under a favorable upper air environment. might become more interesting tomorrow.
the wave near 33w also has a fairly well defined circulation near the .
neither feature threatens imminent development, but both have persisted and may eventually result in a system. the eastpac has continued active; maybe the atlantic will try to keep pace with it. the basin doesn't look to be in the throes of an active surge, but doesn't look that inhospitable either... not unlikely we'll have more action in the coming days.
HF 0442z31august
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Yikes
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: 31.95N 80.90W
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post deleted - question was answered in previous post
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:22 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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when is recon supposed to be in there?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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078
SXXX50 KNHC 310722
AF303 2105A HDOB 17 KNHC
recon is showing up now . 50 mph winds next update
down to 999mb
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by HCW (Thu Aug 31 2006 03:46 AM)
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Buoy 41012 is due west of the center of at 5AM. Pressure is right around 1000 mb and winds sustained out of the north at 17 kts (20 mph). Not very impressive since it is so close to the center. It is on the west side of the storm, though.
Some decent rain here in Charleston overnight, should be more on the way.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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000
URNT12 KNHC 310832
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/08:17:00Z
B. 29 deg 49 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 151 deg 033 kt
G. 44 deg 033 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SW QUAD 07:13:00 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
Looks like ernie is getting his act together!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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How is he getting his act together with a raggedy eyewall? and is real close to the coast or what? WIll he eventually move away some and will this hinder his development or not matter at all?
Use the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum for these types of questions
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:25 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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000
URNT12 KNHC 310926
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/09:18:00Z
B. 29 deg 56 min N
080 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1408 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 223 deg 050 kt
G. 124 deg 049 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW-NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A OB 17
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SE QUAD 09:02:50 Z
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL,C8, FORMING IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF LARGER EYE
The inner core would seem to be trying to consolidate and organise. Although relatively close to land he will be moving further away for a bit before approaching the coast once more. He could become stronger, ad i think we'll see a strong TS at landfall: 65-70 mph.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Radar shows Enrnesto now pushing a little more eastward. Lot of rain trying to wrap around from the south side of the storm. The coast could see a pretty good punch from this storm before all is said and done.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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yeah, i noticed hints of more of an easterly / rightward shift. Recon also shows another slight pressure drop... from 998 down to 997mb.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Local Buoys continue to show an increase in wind speed and decrease in pressure. Certainly an indication that the storm is getting stronger.
PS - if you look at this map, check the buoys with the blue squares or red triangles, the others do not show much information.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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So does that make me safe from landfall if I'm on the SC coast? If it pushes more eastward wouldn't it miss SC and be more of a landfall in NC maybe the outer banks.
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:53 AM)
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Depends on where on the coast you are at. I think the track may be slightly to the right of the official forcast, but not by much. It also depends on whether or not the eastward jog holds. The storm may resume a more northerly track and still run right into the Georgetown/MB area. I would think that the storm would land fall right along the SC/NC border (which is really right in line with the forcast).
Edited by zacros (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:53 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Pressure down again - 996mb. Flt winds to 61Kts!
000
URNT12 KNHC 311116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/11:02:10Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
079 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1398 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 233 deg 061 kt
G. 127 deg 023 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 16 C/ 1445 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2105A OB 28
MAX FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 10:55:00 Z
;
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
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What is up with the area 23 N and 67 w ? Too my untrained eye it looks as though something is spinning, any chance of something popping up here?
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I am not sure, but my guess is that it is an ULL. The surface maps do not show a low in the area and there is certainly no mention in the Tropical Outlook. The 8 AM tropical discussion mentions it though.
A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE
WITH THE AXIS FROM 30N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N58W TO 23N68W. "
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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W.D. Duncan
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