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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73003 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:19 PM

I expect we'll see hurricane warnings on the next advisory, but there hasn't been any wind data to suggest winds at hurricane force yet. The NOAA plane is headed home... it reported 69 knot flight-level winds about an hour ago, but nothing hurricane force at the surface.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73004 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:24 PM

hey guys... after a good 15mins or looking at data and radar... and now see pressure is down to 991mb... i think there could be a new center trying to form... the convection west of center appears to be where all the storngest winds are now... and on sats it looked like the inner ring that could of been the eyewall has expanded way out and collasped? I see a higher reflec. coming up on the LTX radar... wondering if it could be a new eyewall trying to form? Also just got off the phone with family... Not really windy in middle brunswick county.. the tornado warning this moring... some one spotted it visually.. so not only was it dopple inicated, it is almost confirmed... no reports of major damage yet. There is flooding in Wilimington though...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73005 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:35 PM

Storm Hunter does this mean a new center is foming over to the lft and closer to the coast? I thought storms only reformed ceners when theywere weak or trying one last hoorah(sp?) so to say.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73006 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:37 PM

There doesn't seem to be anything resembling a well-defined eye at this point, which will keep this thing in check unless that changes.

The AF plane recently found 73 knot FL winds at 850mb, which would be just below hurricane strength using the usual reduction (20%).


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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73007 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:41 PM

I am in North Carolina about 50 miles due north of Wilmington. It looks to me like Ernesto just made some kind of drastic change. Is this eye wall replacement or something about the fronts? Just trying to learn about what I am seeing. Raining cats and dogs here off and on all day. Unfortuntely also had 3 inches of rain yesterday also.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73008 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:42 PM

The 5:00 still predicts a very strong TS, but doesn't rule out a hurricane

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006
extensive reconnaissance with both NOAA and Air Force aircraft indicate that the maximum surface winds associated with Ernesto are 60 knots. The central minimum pressure is 991 mb. Satellite and radar presentation show a well defined convective curved band wrapping around an area of deep convection near the center. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast at 15 knots and on this track...the cyclone is forecast to reach the coast within the warning area tonight with 60 knots. One can not rule out the possibility a slight strengthening to a category one hurricane at landfall.

Once inland and beyond 36 hours...Ernesto should begin to interact with a frontal system and become extratropical by 48 hours. However...the remnant system is expected to move little and produce heavy rains over portions of the eastern United States.

The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 32.6n 78.7w 60 kt 12hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 78.0w 50 kt...inland 24hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland 36hr VT 02/0600z 38.5n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 02/1800z 41.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 03/1800z...absorbed by a frontal system

$$ forecaster Avila


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: GENIE]
      #73009 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:43 PM

Ok you have me worried! what kind of drastic chnge did he make? I'm in your area and want to know too so I know how I'm effected Genie?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Thu Aug 31 2006 04:48 PM)


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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #73010 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:53 PM

Sorry, should have been more specific. I was referring to what I was seeing on the water vapor and IR image. Storm seems to have lost some of the intensity in the south but the overall size and shape seems to have expanded and become more circlular. To me it looked like the storm lost intensity but organized more. So I wanted to understand what I was seeing. Thought someone could give some insights. And yes, the rain has been steady now at my location for at least the last hour.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #73011 - Thu Aug 31 2006 04:54 PM

There haven't really been any drastic changes with Ernesto today, just a slow intensification that will probably continue until landfall later this evening.

I'm really surprised they haven't put up hurricane warnings. Normally, if it is this close to being a hurricane within several hours of landfall, there will be hurricane warnings in place.

edit: The apparent size increase of the storm on satellite is likely due to the slowly improving organization of the system. It's not unusual for the cloud tops to warm during the day. That does not necessarily indicate weakening, though it is a sign that the storm hasn't been rapidly intensifying.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Aug 31 2006 04:57 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: DOES IT SEEM LIKE THE STORM IS EAST OF THE PROJECTED PATH? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #73012 - Thu Aug 31 2006 05:05 PM

The radar presentation appears ragged and it does not look as if the tropical storm is strenghening any longer.

Ernesto never really packed much of a punch just mainly a lot of rain.
I know many thought it would become a hurricane but it doesn't look that way now
with only a few short miles to go until landfall of what is left of the centerl


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
3-5 hours over water... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #73019 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:16 PM

looks like it will reach the coast near cape fear around 10 PM local time. the pressure falls have continued to be gradual, with just a slow improvement in organization. the convection near the center actually looked a little better about 3 hours ago. might make that slight jump to hurricane strength, or it might not.
center ought to be up near rocky mount tomorrow morning. probably just barely at tropical storm strength around then. it may stay just close enough to the chesapeake bay later tomorrow to be producing gale force winds, but probably not. should be extratropical by saturday.
looks like the heaviest rains are going to remain along and just west of the track. mostly from the waccamaw up along the coastal plain of north carolina, into the sandhills. as the center weakens the convective activity may shear off northeast, drag the main precip area up into the northeast corridor. not sure how much there will be to the west over the appalachians in va, md, pa. think most flooding problems will be in nc and va.
shouldn't be too bad of a storm, all things considered. this is far enough from the major hurricane threat in the gulf we were worrying over last week.
HF 2216z31august

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 31 2006 06:16 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73020 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:24 PM

Tornado Warnings are starting to fly now . With 2 up right now at the time of this post




Can a mod change the level 3 radar recorder to this URL ? Thanks

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Ernesto Forecast [Re: HCW]
      #73021 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:35 PM

i think Ernesto will get to 75 mph before landfalling. If it doesnt it will come very close. The local weather stations are saying anywhere from 1.5-3.5 inches of rain here on Long Island and wind gusts of 45 mph. They are saying total washout for saturday. Im thinking Ernesto will affect the Carolinas more than it affected florida. We'll see what happens at landfall tonight or early tomorrow.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: HCW]
      #73022 - Thu Aug 31 2006 06:38 PM

yeah just had to talk my family through the torn warnings...the one coming ashore in carteret county... STILL rotation as it comes ashore at the State Park there on the island... (running GRlevel II and Google Earth with radar overlayed) pretty cool images.... cells south of southport.. show signs of rotation... so everyone in SE North Carolina show keep an to the LOCAL wx/tv stations.... this will be quick and fast when they pop up.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73032 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:43 PM

Anybody else can a fix on the path...tough to find the center? It looks to me that it may go some west of Wilmington.


http://intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPag...mp;prodnav=none

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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GENIE
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: North Carolina
Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #73034 - Thu Aug 31 2006 07:48 PM

is it just because of satellite presentation on IR and WV that that Ernesto appears to be forming an eye. Could one of the Mets comment on this? Just trying to learn how to interpert what we see on satellite images. Not trying to cause any worries.

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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: 3-5 hours over water... [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73039 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:02 PM

Looking at the radar, it almost looks like the rain along the GA/SC border is being pulled into Ernesto circulation. I thought that the rain was over here in Charleston, but we may get one more shot before it is all said and done.

Ernesto certainly has deepened today. It does not look like the NHC will make a hurricane call on this one. Is it possible in the post storm analysis that they will adjust the intesity of the storm?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Eye Question [Re: GENIE]
      #73041 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:06 PM

I don't see a MET on line right now. But typically a storm needs to be a Hurricane with wind speeds near 90mph for an EYE to form.

However, that's not written in stone. And with this particular storm... anything is possible.


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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73045 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:14 PM

Hurricane hunter about an hour ago reported pressure down to 988 . Good banding but no eye

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Eye Question [Re: danielw]
      #73050 - Thu Aug 31 2006 08:25 PM

I'm seeing a follow up VORTEX with:

L. OPEN N-ENE
M. C20

So there is evidence of a Partial Center or EYE.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 31 2006 08:42 PM)


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