cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Hurricane John, who has recently been a -like Cat. 4 and brushed along the western coast of central Mexico, does now have his sights on the tip of Baja. Many models have shifted more and more to the right, and several now in fact clearly suggest a trip up along the western coast of Baja California.
As of this post update (2:40 AM CDT) Navy at 115MPH Cat 3
SSD CI 5.5 117MPH
Raw CIMSS ADT 6.l 134MPH
Cabo Radar Site
Wunderground model plots page for John
Wunderground historical track plots of similarly located tropical cyclones
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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Track looks like it's going well east of the projected ... moving NNW. Looks like it may just graze the eastern shore of the southern Baja and move up into the Gulf of California.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Lots of reasons to argue that the weakness in the High will allow him to move more NNW or NW than WNW or W, and possibly even make a right at some point. For now, his track appears to be generally on a level very similar to 2003's Marty.
NWS offices in Arizona are already including special verbiage to account for the possibility of thunderstorms with heavy rain. After 1997's Nora PR disaster, it would seem that everyone is treading carefully, of course.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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models have again shifted (flip-flopped) well to the right (north and north-northeast) of ofci -- think will have their hands forced if just one more run comes in with several models showing an intact closed low crossing into arizona.
(The above models plotted on wunderground include the (avn), ukmet, bam medium, & . )
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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