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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73553 - Sat Sep 09 2006 12:46 AM

Quote:


With all respect to TAFB/ NHC, I don't see any mention of the wave at/ near 9N/ 43W.



I have been watching that area all day, and am surprised that they don't at least mention it in the discussion. They do indirectly, in the ITCZ section. But this seems to be more than just a flare up along the ITCZ.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
430 AM EDT Update [Re: BillD]
      #73555 - Sat Sep 09 2006 04:39 AM

Recon has departed Florence.
Max Flight level wind speed was 61kts, or 70.2 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure was 993mb.

Center was relocated to the South of the Satellite Estimated Position.

The 0745Z Dvorak Estimates are Current Intensity of 4.4
Raw T Number of 4.5
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure of 980.4mb

Next RECON is tasked with an 09/ 1800Z center fix.
Short flights, 4 hours total.
Third Flight is tasked with a 10/ 0600Z Center fix.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 04:46 AM)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #73556 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:01 AM

I see the exact same info on the main page regarding recon.
Did I miss something in DanielW's translation?


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: ltpat228]
      #73557 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:05 AM

Often when the Main Page is updated it is reflected in the Thread also.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: ltpat228]
      #73558 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:18 AM

Some people go right to the Main Thread and skip the Main Page Updates.
So I placed the same info here in a smaller space.

Reruns until next season


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Other Waves [Re: BillD]
      #73560 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:35 AM

So Florence hasnt curved northwest yet? This is something interesting to watch. Some models have it heading west of Bermuda then curve it due east then from what it looks like.. maybe a loop? Hurricane are known to do that. I can't say the USA is out of the question yet... I see the 2 troughs.. they look stronger than I thought before but there is an opening just south of the low next to the Carolinas. Should be a hurricane by the 11 a.m. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with Florence as I do believe she will curve but west of Bermuda she wil turn.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Gary in Jax
Unregistered




Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #73561 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:37 AM

With Flo being further south and more west than the earlier coordinates. Will the new model runs have to shift this further west? It to seems like for the model runs to work as of now Flo would have to go almost NNW sometime today, am I wrong in my thinking?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73562 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:54 AM

I am just an observer and have only a smattering of ability to make out fronts and troughs and dry air. I have been trying to decide how old the satellites that are available to me are. But, based on what I can find, there seems to be other options coming available to the storm. I am wondering if the dry air coming down from Canada is going to nudge things even more south before it is over. Even if it does, there is not any more potential for a strong storm than there ever was. I can see how the NHC was able to change the forecast points but if they launch the rocket from the Cape at 11 today, the satellites may not be up to date for the web until later today which makes weather spelunking not as fun for us freebie watchers.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Other Waves [Re: allan]
      #73563 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:55 AM

Weird to be thinking about the possibility of a Jeanne type loop de loop myself, then see this post. Models, and satellite looks to me to be not showing the whole picture with Florence. Can't a storm be so LARGE that it creates its own environment; seems like I read that before? Just hoping she does not pull any strange moves, but also hoping she does not hit Bermuda. Any thoughts from the more educated in this field?

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Florence nearing Hurricane Status [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73564 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:17 AM

There are enough subjective satellite observations to suggest Florence is a hurricane, however, TPC has found that the vertical structure is tiltling NW and that they could not find an eye.

...Structural integrity is a factor in the analysis process.

This tilting makes some sense when considering the larger synoptic scale reasoning. There is a deep layer ridge with an axis near 55W/35N and this is imparting a SE to NW pointing vector in the vicinity of Flo'. The SFC to ~H85 flow may have more westerly component, while the ~ H85-H7 field may be more SE... This would be more of a velocity shear as opposed to a directional shear, so may not show up very readily by satellite observations, but would certainly manifest its self as stress to the vertical structure of the cyclone. And, it is probably a nice homage to the direction of continued motion during the nearer term. If this tilting TPC is suggested really exists, it is also probable that the llv aspect (coupled environment) is having to occasional step N up underneath the core of most intense upward vertical motion. This subtle physically caused correction may be disrupting a more explosive intensity curve.

There has been some question as to the significance of the re-positioning S and also, some additional westerly component observed during the overnights.

My suggestion is this will mean very little to the track guidance, but perhaps shifting it a little to the W as Flo' begins whatever form of the parabolic motion into high latitudes she ultimately takes..

Bermuda is still under the gun. The stakes are high... The 00Z and 06Z operational GFS suggest now that Flo's re-curvature may not be a smooth acceleration into higher latitudes. The faster motion would be a better case scenario when having to also except a Bermuda strike, because a faster duration would of course limit the exposure to high winds/seas. However, said GFS solutions offer some deceleration option near Bermuda's lat/lon. That is at least intuitively acceptable because there is a mulit-day, multi-guidance unanimous solution for a large anticyclone to press seawards from the middle latitudes of the N/A continent. That would tend to argue for some form of lower tropospheric block or at least exertion against an out-and-out polarward motion. Not a done deal by any means; something to keep an eye on.

Just an early heads up on "07L"... The name has apparently been changed to 93L with a NESDIS T-number of 1.0. That Dvorak classification has held since last evening and currently looking out there on satellite, there is no question that a tenacious little entity does not want to give up the fight against the tyrrany of NNW shear in the area. I am hoping to do some model analysis on the deep layer environmental expectations for that, during the day. But, Bermuda's threat is more important. Perhaps with 93L we will get some tropical model output off the 12Z runs.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Sep 09 2006 11:24 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Other Waves [Re: allan]
      #73565 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:40 AM

The BAMM models, the ones we love to hate, do suggest the beginning of a loop. Do they have any credibility?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Other Waves [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73566 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:46 AM

it can only take one model to prove a turn in all of the models.. Think of Hurricane Jeane with the NOGAPS model. I do see how it can loop by looking at the water vapor image loop. I see a circular rotation around Bermuda. Just got to wait and see. This may actually happen... should be a hurricane very soon. Sure looks like one. It's almost just due south of Bermuda. the models that loop it takes it west than curves it almost due east. The Global models still take a sharp northward turn which I really can't see happening. We're just gonna have to wait and see.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Model update... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73567 - Sat Sep 09 2006 02:10 PM

12z guidance, particularly the GFDL has shifted correction: left in track guidance once Florence has cleared the latitude of Bermuda. This raises concerns for eastern NS and most of NF provinces in Canada. Most guidance overall maintains an air of tropical characteristics and robust intensity at these latitudes, only after which does weakening and/or more concerted extratropical conversion take place.

Other than that...it appears to me that nothing has really changed... The models remain insistent on a rather sharp turn to the N during the next 24 hours and then a gradual acceleration; save the GFS/NOGAPs, which attempt to decelerate Flo' as it passes Bermuda. Currently Flo' has what looks like a CDO and compared to yesterday....the outflow is stellar... Sufficiently warm waters exist along her track expectation to at least 35N, and she'll be passing underneath 200mb divergent U/A, so see no problem with anticipating further intensification. TPC brings her to 95kts or so...

BTW:
Now "93L" was run in the GFDL in the 12Z guidance after all.. However, nadda.. The model initializes it and then sumarily can't find it after 3 or 4 frames. I must admit, until Florence's omnipotent presence clears the area, 93L may have the burden of shear impinging on any developmental prospect.. But that is not a guarantee either, as the models do suggest some improvement in the overal environment. There does not seem to be as much SAL over that part of the ocean, either, which is a good thing for development. While it is not impossible to develop 93L further, the negatives seem to offset trends and positives so it virtually impossible to make a call at this point.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Sep 09 2006 02:17 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Model update... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73572 - Sun Sep 10 2006 12:52 AM

Did someone hit the perma-snooze button today?

Florence looks pretty sickly tonight. Convection-wise, she has looked alright, with cloud tops even approaching -90C. However, so much of her has been getting drawn northward, that given her rather broad and oblong coc to begin with, I can hardly fathom her being upgraded to a hurricane in the immediate future. To make matters even worse for her, the eastern semi-circle has just had a slice taken out of it tonight, as readily seen here (time sensitive)... Despite what NHC has had to say about the prospects for intensification, the shear appears to be a bit worse than anticipated and/or analyzed, perhaps

Recon going back in here shortly will hopefully help the next advisory come across more like science, and less like card reading.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
it's all about the structure [Re: cieldumort]
      #73573 - Sun Sep 10 2006 01:39 AM

florence has to be one of the biggest failure storms i've ever seen. not that it's a bad thing.
there hasn't been any appreciable shear or dry air intrusions for the last couple of days, and a nice strong subtropical ridge to round. florence has a big clumsy vortex that isn't vertically stacked right and can't seem to right itself. it's so far prevented the storm from being able to concentrate its energy and really cycle up. the effect on florence has been sort of like the effect on large hurricanes that spend a day or two on land and lose their core, and come off with broad windfields and spread convection. the figure skater analogy applies... arms out, slow spiral, arms in... whirling blur. florence can't get those arms in.
91L is a trooper. those global models that kept seeing the system remain have verified. it's been bursting convection and keeping away from florence enough that absorption isn't a huge worry. florence should round the ridge with enough speed that they don't close again. the upper outflow jet should also tail around with the storm more and relax as florence whips northward. not a certainty, but its chances are stronger the more it persists. unlike florence, nice tight little vortex with this one. when/if the shear lets up, should take right off. i don't think it will come west, though. florence should knock a huge hole in the atlantic ridge as it goes up, and i doubt it will fill and pinch 91L off before it gets well to the north. unless the storm stays weak longer.. and gets under whatever ridge rebuilds. eh, no telling. haven't looked at any models for a day or two, but most either lost the system or sent it up into a big inverted trough as the surface ridging gelled back together north of bermuda.
haven't looked at the wave off africa. can't be too scary, since the NHC isn't mentioning it. had some model support, if i recall.
september 10th. right near peak season. still just florence.
my 18 storm prediction on this year is going to be a joke. should have stayed with the first impulse 14/9/4. even that should be high. right now we're 6/1/0.
HF 0539z10september


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: it's all about the structure [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73574 - Sun Sep 10 2006 02:13 AM

Well, now that we have Hurricane Florence...

That *maybe* an eye forming as per several microwave passes, was indeed.. an eye. It would have helped those of us sitting here doing the armchair quarterbacking, as well as NHC, to not have had to guess what she was doing during the satellite eclipse. Good job recon! All the more reason we - must - see more recon put in place, IMHO.


Eclipse over - satellites back on board - Raw T from CIMSS up to 5.4 and climbing as I type. Florence is undergoing some healthy intensification during the pre-dawn nocturnal max hours, and seems to have her eye set for Bermuda at this point.


Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 10 2006 03:24 AM)


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