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96L still a tropical wave, a vigorus one, with a broad wave axis. Development somewhat unlikely today.
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73436 - Wed Sep 06 2006 12:32 AM

Quote:

000


Historical Map at this link:
[url] http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad [/url]
shows no storm even doing what theyre saying is possible..does that make it impossible?






Yes it is possible.. It is possible because climo is not a prediction/forecast. Climate is a total divided by n values in the simplest terms and those can include well behaved AND anomalous situations..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:33 AM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73437 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:34 AM

The new run of the GFS has a break in the ridge in 5 days but has the ridge coming back together in 6 days and keeping Florence on a western run.
Hmmmmmmmm.....


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73438 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:36 AM

ok so typhoon_tip what do you think will the trough move away allowing florence to landfall or will is stick around cause the recurving sooner not affecting the coast?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Sarg
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Riverview, Fl
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73439 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 AM

So if the above scenario were to happen with the more westerly track where would that put the storm at landfall? Also do you have a link to the GFS run?

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73440 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:39 AM

I can marginally buy into that GFS run - a more westward track of Florence, in general. But, there are plenty of things so very much unknown with Florence, herself.

Let me state some observations (of which I'm sure most if not all have been stated before, but which I will either say for the first time, or simply agree with them if already mentioned)

1) Florence has an awful lot of dry air mixed inside - which will be making for painfully slow development until this air can either be washed out or worked around in such a way that a new coc forms where dry air is far less prevalent (such as NNE)

2) Florence has had a good deal of southwesterly shear to contend with, which has and will be contributing to her initially slooow development. As such, between 1 & 2, Florence may not become a significant hurricane until *potentially* much closer to land. Also - by default - without any future eyewall replacement cycle until possibly after at least one land impact (such as Bermuda). Additionally, considering 1 & 2, the LLC may as of yet be nowhere close to where it finally ends up, creating a massive correction in future track and intensity.

3) Flo is a *large* cyclone. As such, one can probably expect an impressive ability to withstand and fight off shear, among other potential would-be killers. Thus, Flo may readily outlast some future calls of weakening.

4) 91L to Flo's east has virtually been a TD for well over a day now, itself. It is conceivably draining some from Flo's potential, and this may continue. Should both develop somewhat uniformly and impressively, a Fujiwhara effect is not out of the question, either. This also could very easily dramatically alter the future path of *possibly* both systems (keeping in mind we are still as of now only at the one: Flo).

I suppose where I am going with all of this is to highlight the need to keep common sense when considering even 24 hours with a system such as this one, and this, not even taking into consideration the greater synoptic environment - both current, and forecast, which is also not at all written in stone, and remains up in the air - pun intended!

I am personally placing precious little faith in both intensity and track forecasts out past 24 hours with Flo.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73442 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 AM

The models seem to be in excellent agreement about the track for the next 5 days, taking Florence WNW, NW then somewhat more NNW. To my layman's eye, I don't see agreement on a recurvature out to sea yet.

If I read it right, we could be looking at a Cat 3?


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: cieldumort]
      #73443 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:42 AM

To further embellish the observations made in the previous post, the center that is now visible in this mornings satellite pix is to the south of the 5 am advisory and is basically stationary. This may add confusion to the future track of Florence, specifically the time-critical synoptic pattern evolving around her. 91L is still not that impressive, but could move NW around Flo and this should further complicate forecasting woes. The good news is that all of this is occurring out over the open waters of the Atlantic and, given enough time, these usually get caught up in the westerlies.......but that is dependent on the changing pattern. Pretty intriguing given the host of variables here. It'll be interesting to see how the models handle the setup during the next few days. Let's see what today brings. Cheers!!

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Steve H1]
      #73444 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:30 AM

No intermediate advisories yet I guess.

It's amazing the size of Florence today...I have to say that she's definately gone more west than anyone thought 3 days ago and has definately brought the north eastern seaboard into play. No land to dry her out, If that shear dies off today like forcasted, she's going to spin up.

there are no intermediate advisories unless watches and warnings are up. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 06 2006 01:23 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Sarg]
      #73445 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:41 AM

"ok so typhoon_tip what do you think will the trough move away allowing florence to landfall or will is stick around cause the recurving sooner not affecting the coast? "

I believe you ought to go with the model consensus on recurvature, but not absolutely along their tracks. ...Again, the issue is and has been where exactly that will happen.

But, the model consensus does take it off shore pretty harmlessly.

Now, this "may" be correctable for a few synoptic reasons already addressed...

To name a couple, the strength of WAR (West Atlnatic Ridge) is not entirely certain. That feature is a primary steering inducer during the day 2-4 range. Beyond that, there is model-progged persistence of a weakness in the heights of the W Atlantic sufficient to induce a concerted polarward motion. The trick with that is, WAR has been prematurely eroded/decayed as a repeated bias in the models. We don't want to go too much deeper into speculation here on the main thread, but I will say that "IF" there is a correction to be made to atone for such a bias here, it would have to be that the ridge would hold longer and force a longer duration of westerly motion. That simple philosophy is why I am a little apprehensive in going with the model mean whole-heartedly.

TPC at 5am did not seem to bite on this, however...or at least, not as much. They intoned a right shift with their track guidance and from what I read, they left out this above train of reasoning altogether. Not sure I agree with them on that quite frankly. I also do not believe their 5am fix on initial motion is very good either... In the last 4 to 5 hours I cannot confirm a heading of 300 degrees at 11kts. In fact, Flo' appears nearly stationary at this time...

But, the 11am is due out any moment so it will be interesting what they say...

Bottom line: You ask me what I think - I think that if a ridge does establish its self there will wind up being some issues about timing the westerlies over top (latitude) of that ridge, for determination of what - if anything - there is about the flow that can cause a weakness sufficient to move Flo' screaming N near Bermuda so hastily. This "might" require observing future model runs begin to tweak their tracks W... Will that be enough to threaten the EC.. ?? Gosh, I really don't know.

John.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 10:42 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73446 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 AM

Big change in 5-day track...now due north:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_5day.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73447 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:55 AM

I'm not sure if I would say that is a "big" change... the models have consistently been calling for that turn and now the forecast timing of the turn is finally within the 5-day NHC forecast window. If the pattern forecast by the models verifies, then Florence should only be a possible threat to Bermuda, but there is still plenty of uncertainty that far out in advance.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73448 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:00 AM

It doesn't surprise me with the persistence of the models to recurve at least excuse to do so!

But, I still believe the more exact amplitude of the W Atl ridge and its eventual effects on forcing a steering level have yet to be ascertained.. That will be important.. The guidances...they are paradigms not necessarily to be taken as holy - but I'm sure you are aware of that...

At least in once instance (the issues surrounding the ridge...) we can see why...

I will say this much, if the W Alt ridge desolves in convenient order as the models are suggesting, this will be the first time they have succeeded in doing so in recent months - which would be a tremendous stroke of luck for any storm weary denizens of the EC.


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: I agree 100% [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73449 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:18 AM

The models have had a very tough time in handling the initialization, the tracks and the intensity of storms this season especially early in their births.

Florence fits the same mold. Though large, the center is far from the main center of convection. Again a ULL nearby is playing a major role. Again the storm is slow in organizing. I see a trend here.

Early on I just don't see the models doing that good of a job, yet.

Edited by stormtiger (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:15 PM)


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Solak
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: I agree 100% [Re: stormtiger]
      #73450 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:55 AM

It appears to me using the Animated Floater that there are two identifiable centers of rotation still. One near the most recent coordinates, and one about 2 degees S and maybe 1 degree east of the plotted location.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 570
Re: I agree 100% [Re: Solak]
      #73452 - Wed Sep 06 2006 12:23 PM

...If this makes any sense for you...
It appears to me the "general" circulation is moving W almost due, while the smaller internal core is doing loopty-loops inside.. In fact, if you focused on the very center, you may detect a small closed eddy in there and you'd be correct to assume that is the preceived/official center. That eddy just gyrated almost due N in the last 1.5 hours, but since the generalized motion still appears more W when stepping back and letting your eyes go with the drift, my belief is this is just more wobbling.

Not uncommon actually for such broad circulations to have a couple of localized vorticity maxima rotating around inside...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:24 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
weight of evidence [Re: Solak]
      #73454 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:00 PM

almost all the guidance takes the storm up west of bermuda just a tad, then recurves it sharply. if you take the solutions of recent days at face value, it adds up to a major hurricane side-swiping bermuda in the mon-tue timeframe, then recurving northeast after a northward jaunt between 65-70w. the mechanism that would shift the track left enough to make it a threat to the northeast would have to be the amplification coming down from canada next weekend splitting, with some of the momentum jetting sharply eastward and just tapping the heights off the canadian maritimes down for a moment and allowing them to rebuild in the path of the storm... and most importantly the energy that tails back on the continent linking with upper weaknesses back in the central u.s. the deeper troughing would allow heights to rise off the east coast and keep the ridging more intact... and also create a more amplified pattern to draw the storm up a little further to the northwest.
there has been a general trend towards these features being more pronounced in some of the global model runs, but for right now the heaviest amount of support is close to the NHC track past bermuda, and implicitly out to sea east of the canadian maritimes.
91L has become somewhat disorganized, with a very elongated se-nw surface center... and is close enough to trudgy florence that it is suffering some. still, most of the global models maintain it and show weak development as it tracks along behind the stronger storm. the NOGAPS model is still it's strongest proponent. the canadian suggests that it won't get drawn up, but rather left after florence leaves to the north... which is interesting as well.
that disturbed weather that persisted near florida has held together as it now tracks northeast ahead of a frontal trough along the east coast. it will likely become associated with the front before getting a chance to really develop, but appears to be becoming better organized. if it somehow remains independent of the front, maybe it will turn into something, but probably not.
hunch that the wave crossing the caribbean will act up some in the western caribbean. i'm not sure if it will have the fortitude to do anything, but some of the globals are spotting a small disturbance in the area. most likely it will all just crash into central america and amount to nothing.
HF 1659z06september


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73455 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:35 PM

Hey Guys,

I was looking a little closer to home.
If you check out the Sat: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

There seems to be a good amount of thunderstorm activity
around 17N 70W ( Santo Damingo)
So I went and looked around at the bouys in the area.
Found this one reporting West Winds (last 3 Hours)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJMZ.html

Does this mean that this area of Thunderstorms has circulation with it?


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1095
Loc: fl
Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beach]
      #73456 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:43 PM

Florence never had a chance to get past 65-70W....strong trough off the east coast.....said and done.
She will get better organized...probably a cat 3.... but I feel Berumda is inline with something...maybe not a direct hit..but TS winds... the pattern has been set for a week and will continue for another 2... Only chance of a landfall over the next 2 weeks will be something forming in the western carribean or gulf. Florence has been a obvious forecast for 5 days.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73457 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:47 PM

Hey Scott,
What do you think about the tropical wave down in the eastern carib. south of the D.R.?

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1095
Loc: fl
Re: weight of evidence [Re: NewWatcher]
      #73459 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:49 PM

I dont like seeing convection fire from a tropical wave during the daytime hours....I like to see convection buildup at night with a warm core system. Anyways the winds are pretty much due E...!!Pretty much its just a wave...will probably max out in next hour or 2 then the clouds will warm later this evening.....I give it a 1/10 chance... There should be alot of Atlantic activity...but nothing will reach the U.S. unless something forms in the Carribean or Gulf.....

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 06 2006 01:51 PM)


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