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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: weight of evidence [Re: h2ocean]
      #73491 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:56 PM

The 00Z look the same. Everything still between 65-70 degrees on the turn to the north. Also, the bams 00Z seems to be the same as the 1800z run. The NGPI has moved more to the east then at 1800z.
God Bless
Jeff

Edited by inHISgrip (Wed Sep 06 2006 10:22 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: cieldumort]
      #73492 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 PM

so are we officially clear here in the NE?

maybe. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 06 2006 11:37 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73493 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:57 PM

No one is in the clear until it passes. Even with Jeanne (2004) that didn't seem to matter. The atmosphere doesn't do what the models tell it to do.

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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73494 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:58 PM

"AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOUND AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY
AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT ANTICIPATED".
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Looks like the NHC does not feel like 92L will be a player in the path of Florence.


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HanKFranK
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73496 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:58 PM

fascinating. florence has a whole lot going on, but only where it doesn't count. there is plenty of deep convection but it is all east of the center. shear isn't all that bad anymore, hasn't been very oppressive for a day or so now. still, the storm has developed its anticyclone in the wrong place... the deep convection feeds the anticyclone and keeps a slightly tighter shear gradient over the center, and the center whips up more convection to keep it going. broad as it is, it might just jump east or something. or somehow keep finding ways to remain weak.
there are a lot more roadblocks to development around this season, and every storm seems to find them and make friends. upper lows are also not pulling out quickly enough for systems to just develop unopposed. storm six, in spite of being a huge cape verde type system, isn't immune from the story of the season either. it'll most likely win out and become a large, dangerous type hurricane. probably as it is starting to recurve, just as the official says.
to the east, 91L persists and has recentered further to the north where the global models that held onto it kept it. convection has increased a little bit this evening, but with florence flailing away it should experience shear and starved inflow persistently for the next few days. the NHC is giving it the thumbs down. the trades have weakened quite a bit and it might just hang back and let florence get further up the trail, but most likely it'll keep suffering under the bad company that is florence.
the NHC official shows florence starting a NE turn at the end of the forecast period, and the model consensus is flipped back to the east some over the 12Z globals. the official looks good and unless something changes florence is going fishing, with maybe a passing interest in bermuda. i'm going to assume that is the future track until solid evidence presents itself otherwise.
92L's center may have closed off a tad, but it appears to be right on the frontal zone now. it is getting enough southwesterly shear that no further development should occur, of the tropical sort at least.
the wave near a bahamas to abc islands axis has some action along and in front of it. there's decent ridging aloft in the area, but nothing as of yet. a couple of low swirls on the northern side are lifting up into the baroclinic zone. with the pattern over the next week any threat to the u.s. would have to come out of the caribbean... some of the globals are showing low pressures in the area but nothing doing for now.
so close to the peak of the season now, and just a rather clumsy tropical storm to show for it right now.
HF 0357z07september


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Status/update [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73504 - Thu Sep 07 2006 12:16 PM

Florence appears unhealthy as of the 11am hour....

As of 11am, Flo’ is still a rather ragged looking 45kt TS and shear is still evidenced as highly impacting the structure and vitality of her convection, lifting lower altitude anvil elements laterally from S to N, across the axis of rotation as they attempt to erupt. That is very bad for TC intensification.

The very deep and persistent convection that demarcated her NE semi-circle over the past 24 hours is diminished in intensity, very recently too. At one time yesterday it could be noted that a low-level cloud swirl, or local vorticity maximum embedded within an anomalously large circulation field (700 nautical mile diameter!), had shifted N during the day and apparently up underneath the very cold cloud tops of that convection. Moreover, the massive circumvallate of Flo's N and E outer regions began to even take on more classic appearance of anticyclonic outflow near dark last evening.

Despite these histories and observations that suggested Flo was about to enter an important intensification behavior late yesterday, that has not taken place overnight. Flo' has again exposed what is best interpreted as her circulation center, another of these smaller vorticity maximums; they are as good a candidate as any for potentially focusing a clear center. Having seen one of these cloud swirls migrate up underneath the convection yesterday, along with:
a) The departure of the shear imposing U/A low migrating WSW away from Flo,
b) ...And the gaining of anticyclonic motion in the outflow over the N and E canopy

...really had me believing that when we awoke this am we'd have a hurricane out there. I am a surprised to see this look so ragged this morning.

The problem may turn out to be correctly timing that expected attenuation of shear. It was predicted by most global models that the shear would begin to relax in 3 days, about 3 days ago now…Clearly that has yet to really be observed. It may be premature to make this call by a little, but it does appear the shear is persisting a tad longer than the guidance and interpretation by the Met community had believed back then – certainly that is true for my self. We’ll have to give it the daylight hours today to fairly judge how premature that anticipation really was, but shear is in no hurry as of 11am to demonstrate any cooperation with those ideas. One thing we also have to remember is that shear can impact at different levels, such that you may often see nice circular outflow, with shear punching into the mid levels of the system - not always readily discerned... I can see some evidence of very high cirrus fragments moving in a divergent pattern, while also seeing some shallower convection "tipping" still across the axis of rotation.. This is all probably some evidence for complicated shear levels. Bottom line, until this shear finally relaxes, all intensity guidance and probably to some extent the longer term track guidance will be in trouble.

Here is why:
Much of Flo’s track will depend on her vertical structure. If she remains a shallow entity, such that she is regardless of how broad her circulation is at this time, she will be less influenced by deep layer steering levels and more likely to move along with the llv environmental winds.

Most of the guidance is still as of the overnight AMAZINGLY tightly clustered around a rather obnoxious solution, obnoxious when considering classical synoptic reasoning. More typically (classically), when you see a TC near 20N/50W and you have a large region of mid level heights that are demarcated by 588dms, while (and this key) you have lower heights continuing along a more westerly track, it is more intuitively pleasing to envision the TC availing of less resistance along that westerly course in the atmosphere. That “less” resistance is not through the 588dm ridge region.

So how does this happen? The interpretation from the large Met community is that a weakness will form in the ridge’s western aspect about 72 hours from now, and this will be what Flo’ uses to start gaining latitude in great leaps… (Some guidance even appear to move Flo’ N, once making this turn, faster than any observed steering, which is truly bizarre and unlikely).

Anyway, a problem I have with the timing of that re-curve is and has been:
a) Flo appears to begin re-curving in the runs too earnestly relative to weakness strength/arrival. TCs usually will resist the steering influence for a while before actually responding. 3 days is a lot of time for a TC to get its act together, which may very well take place here. A weak Flo’ will not respond and will likely move more W; a moderately intensified Flo’ may be more likely to respond a bit faster; a very strong Flo’ is likely to resist for generating a protective envelopment of higher heights and surrounding ring of higher surface pressure.
b) The persistent bias in model performance has been too quick to erode the western areas of ridges. That may not matter this time, which would be a tremendous stroke of luck for middle and upper EC areas. Perhaps the models will happen to be right about WAR reduction timing. I also was made aware that some of the initializations last night were as much as 1.5dm too low with the heights near Bermuda; perhaps that fact is evidence of premature erosion?

Be that as it may, the models are somehow compensating for these concerns in their processing of the data, and insisting that Flo’ will behave accordingly.

Conclusion: I would suggest we continue to go with the model cluster but keep some of these ideas in the back of our minds as new runs come out. Using that philosophy, Bermuda is the "most" threatened at this time, but I caution that much can still happen in 96+ hours (time before impact there when using 00Z and 06Z GFDL mean). Bermuda is like trying to hit a dart with a dart board and from 96 hours out, you may as well be trying to do that from 100 feet. We should monitor the structure of Flo' as a "possible" course correction when then balancing those observations with synoptic permutation/evolutions.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 12:18 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Status/update [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73505 - Thu Sep 07 2006 02:16 PM

alot of good solutions there.. but the LLF near 65W is already NNW...in 2 days it will be near 60W (about where she should be) so even if shes a TD with pressures up to 1008 she will still be steered NNW then N and NNE by day 3. Systems only continue a W path when there is no trough or front boundry.

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Storm Trooper
Unregistered




Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73507 - Thu Sep 07 2006 04:44 PM

Forward speed is 14 now. setting up for a hook? what do you guys think about the change?

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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73508 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:29 PM

As noted in the impressive post above, Florence has looked rather assymetrical with most of the convection located east of the center. However, in the most recent satallite shots, a lot of convection is building around the main LLC. The visual is impressive. You can watch the LLC move from an open area into the convection. So, it looks like Florence is beginning to organize and should continue to strengthen from here. Visual Sat

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73509 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:32 PM

Quote:

alot of good solutions there.. but the LLF near 65W is already NNW...in 2 days it will be near 60W (about where she should be) so even if shes a TD with pressures up to 1008 she will still be steered NNW then N and NNE by day 3. Systems only continue a W path when there is no trough or front boundry.




Agreed - like I intimated, the shallowness of Flo' will have different steering levels. Flo' is getting cooking now though...

As to fronts and hurricanes: This tends to be true... Fronts may bulge or move polarward as warm boundaries, as a TC gets near, but TCs do not cross these boundaries... The boundaries either decay first, or in some rare cases the TC may take on "baroclinic thermodynamics" and actually link up with the boundary like a mid-latitude cyclone.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 05:33 PM)


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: My take [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73510 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:37 PM

It may have speeded up, but it's not in very good shape. It looks like a very large lopsided storm with most of the weather on the East side. It sure doesn't look like a traditional large Cape Verdi storm.

Storms have started around the center in the NW quadrant, but dry air is being sucked in from the West and Southwest. It is still being sheared, but that is predicted to let up. As big as Florence is I think she will have a hard, slow time in revving up, but as far out from the CONUS as she is, she will have time to do so once the shear relaxes.

I do not see anything keeping her from recurving as predicted, but I could see florence never becoming a hurricane. She is a weird storm for the prime of the season.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: My take [Re: stormtiger]
      #73511 - Thu Sep 07 2006 06:21 PM

Quote:

... It sure doesn't look like a traditional large Cape Verdi storm.....




But she is a "large" Cape Verdi storm.. Her circulation envelope not spans nearly 900nm as per the 5pm discussion! That's truly massive.... But I see what you mean... her over all structure is not nicely symmetrical as of 6pm..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 06:22 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: My take [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73512 - Thu Sep 07 2006 06:51 PM

official on florence looks pretty good.. unless that low forming near the georgia coast behind 92L (since merged into the same front) is deeper than shown and draws the storm more directly northward. the threat zone really doesn't go west of the gulf of maine, with nova scotia and newfoundland possibly threatened after bermuda gets hit around monday. there are still a variety of solutions... the consensus brings the storm close enough to merit attention. the official is close enough to bermuda that the island may experience prolonged hurricane conditions, with the large envelope of the storm.
florence is extremely broad and may not begin to really deepen/focus its energy until it's on a baroclinic surge northward ahead of the oncoming trough. outflow is impressive but strung out east-west right now.
globals show that maybe some remnant vorticity from 91L may remain after florence departs. this is suspect since the broad circulation of florence could easily absorb it all. a broad/weak type low is shown in the southwest caribbean in some modeling but it doesn't appear to have the synoptic setup necessary to stew and incubate. a couple of waves should depart the cape verdes and modeling indicates that at least one should make a charge at development. for september things are running typical to a tad slow. with just florence in the atlantic and a dying depression in the eastpac... and empty westpac... things are running very slow overall.
HF 2251z07september


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Finally a different perspective [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73514 - Thu Sep 07 2006 08:19 PM

I for one am really glad to finally get to track a storm for its wave potential and not for it's threat to some area of our coastline....at least I'm assuming not at this point. I do hope the brunt of Florence, however strong it ends up being, spares Bermuda. Does anyone know if they get the majority of their information from the NHC?

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Finally a different perspective [Re: richisurfs]
      #73516 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:10 AM

Significant structural changes are underway this evening/tonight.

For the very first time, deep convection has successfully wrapped around the western semi-circle, pretty much. The painfully dry air that had been overwhelming her attempts at finding a true center has, for now and the foreseeable near-term future, been mixed out.

The ULL just to Flo's west is opening up, and Florence seems to be getting underneath it. As the ULL weakens and Flo gets situated more directly underneath, even the mid-level shear should continue to relax, and possibly drop to levels near zero.

All in all, dry air out, deep convection in. Harsh shear gone, slowly forming upper-level anticyclone in.

Nocturnal maxima tonight - it will be very telling to see what kind of shape Florence is in come sunrise. My bet should current trends continue is for at least a 60MPH 995MB TS by mid-morning Friday, if not sooner. If someone was to tell me that Florence is to become our next hurricane by the 5PM advisory Friday, I wouldn't dare argue the strong possibility.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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BillD
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Re: My take [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73517 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:18 AM

A quite candid statement from Avila in the 11:00 PM Discussion, from what I remember he is usually more circumspect.

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

On the water vapor and IR, I notice a tightening and some increase in intensity over the last few hours but only near the center (although it seems to be forcing moisture into the dry air to the SW). Almost the entire south side is dry air, and shear continues. Another storm that should be something, but isn't.

Bill


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: My take [Re: BillD]
      #73518 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:32 AM

I think Avila may become much more confident in his abilities once again, soon enough. Raw T out of CIMSS is already a 3.6 and climbing. Florence has clearly improved tonight, and this is almost certain to be translated into winds at the surface, shortly. While the shear is still apparent, it is also obviously having less and less of a negative effect on the cyclone's ability to organize, and this shear should continue to be on a decreasing trend.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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HanKFranK
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Re: My take [Re: cieldumort]
      #73519 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:20 AM

unless florence is feinting again, the storm is about to finally do some deepening. one can only wonder what the profile of the storm will really be like--gfs shows it never contracting into a tight, intense storm, but rather remaining a very broad cat 2. may have an unusually large eye to go with the unusually large circulation, if that verifies. there's enough model consensus on the recurvature path to start assuming bermuda will get socked real good on monday. the additional baroclinic activity near the east coast should have moved northeast ahead of florence and act to draw the storm more northeast than some of the last couple days' runs were indicating... threat to canada may be on the slide. should be big enough that even coming close will roughen the weather up there, although the canadian martimes are one of the stormier places on earth and it shouldn't be anything that out of the norm.
the invest that was trailing florence lost its identity some in the improving outflow of its larger sibling, yet there is still a discernable turning max to the east of florence... the larger system also sped up today, and is leaving it some more breathing room. the global models have been 'seeing' this feature persistently and many still are, in spite of the NHC seemingly losing interest.
globals still indicate a broad area of lower pressures in the western caribbean. none show any development. one can only wonder when an autumn high finally will drop into the east with enough strength to logjam the area and send a storm up. it is still early september and blocky type highs have already made themselves felt in the western atlantic/eastern u.s. the caribbean may end up getting busied up... with pattern-induced type storms rather than random waves acting up. abnormal dryness, higher than normal pressures, and shear have kept most of the waves in the deep tropics rather humble so far this season. there hasn't been much in the way of those corresponding systems in the mid-latitudes that usually take up some of the slack when the deep tropics are less active. adds up to a quiet august and an unimpressive start to september.
i can only wonder what the larger implications of the quietude in the northern hemisphere will be. the western pacific is a meatgrinder of upper lows and troughs, with ioke's intrusion from the central pacific the only significant system in that part of the world in three weeks. usually when that side is quiet you'd expect this side to be cranking--there have been a few eastern pacific storms during august, though things have been quieting some.
the silence is almost deafening.
HF 0620z08september


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: My take [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73520 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:55 AM

The Truly Bizarre

Does not end.

This is the peak. (?!)

Someone forgot to tell the forecasts that El Nino has been developing all season.

5AM - 50MPH, 1000MB Florence has not availed herself of the lower shear to be had by sneaking further under the weakening ULL to the west. In fact, after a few hours of strongly hinting to do so, Flo may have begun taking more of that NW instead of WNW path, while the ULL has continued seemingly south of west, placing Flo back into some increasingly hostile dry air intrusion and southwesterly shear. If Florence keeps moving more NW, chances even look possible that by later today she will be hitting some outrageously strong shearing from the ULL, then even more to her SW than W. What in the **** season is this, anyway? The Truly Bizarre. Wait, wasn't that last year? Ahhh.. this is the other side of that pendulum. Now, I understand.

--------------------
COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73524 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:27 AM

What I find interesting is that the NHC doesn't see anything else out there. I guess Florence is so big there isn't room for anything else (joke).

Even if this doesn't develop into a Hurricane or if it stays west of them, Bermuda is in for a long event with a storm of this size.


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