Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Update Saturday 10/14/06... Invest 90L is still on the books, Invest 91L was short lived and an area of low pressure in the GOM will probably be a large rain event for some on the Gulf Coast. Tropical development looks unlikely at this time... 9PM 10/14/06... 92L Invest has been put up to make me look stupid  I still don't see much out of this system but we will watch it...
Coop
Update Tuesday 10/9/06... Invest 902006 has formed and although I don't expect it to pose a threat to the US... it may very well be the last disturbance to watch this season....
Coop
10/16/06 0600UTC Shear Tendency
90L
92L
...prior update...
...and nothing much expected to. Tropical wave off Honduras maintains convection, but no real signs of organization. A few active waves along the west of 30W, but most of the activity is south of 10N and under increasing shear.
Strong cutoff upper level low over South Carolina is expected to retrograde to the south southwest and then curl back to the northeast and weaken.
The season has changed, with higher wind shear in the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea, and especially off the southeast coast. In general, the entire basin is not favorable for any development. Not every October has a storm and this October may well fit that category, but we'll check in from time to time just in case there is a late season surprise.
ED
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Oct 16 2006 05:34 AM)
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bwind
Unregistered
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In fact, there are no named storms anywhere on this planet! Just four INVESTs in the Pacific Ocean and one in the Indian.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's relatively quiet, to be sure. But, it is October, afterall. Realistically 99e in the east pac could have earned TD status at almost anytime over the past 18 hours, or so. Latest CI & T numbers from SSD were 2.5 and 2.5 (40mph), and QScat was even showing some 60mph vectors, although rain-flagged - cleaner 25-35 mph vectors were plentiful, however. It had a in cue overnight. 90e now has an issued up and is very close. In the west pac 99w looks much improved with recent CI and T both 1.5 from SSD - looks like that could easily be increased to 2 or 2.5 with the next run. wave that HF and others like to follow does seem to be somewhat active, and could refire some things here later this month, I suppose - will have to see if this shear pattern isn't as brutal at that time, but given the history of this season, one could easily argue that if anything it could be even worse, not better. With as much convection as has been bubbling this month, most of it has been only looked impressive because of upper-level diffluence, with next to nothing gelling at the surface. 99l was almost there, but again, par for the season. Best chance for anything to fly under the radar of all this shear might be in the southern Caribbean, which keeps bubbling something up on numerous model runs, too.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nothing much is right. there is an eastpac depression, which usually precludes any atlantic development by about a week to ten days, if the -connection is going to play out. there are actually a couple of areas that look somewhat interesting but are under too much shear... i.e., the enhanced wave feature near central america, and the slow-moving but well defined wave near 50w. neither of these has much chance to do anything. the globals do show the vigorous upper low and its surface reflection near the southeast coast drifting out into the atlantic and northeast. unlikely that it can affect a transition.... too much shear. the globals are also showing a sort of pre-frontal wave disturbance in the western gulf later next week, which like everything else should be dealing with too much shear to do anything.
HF 0439z09october
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 09 2006 09:36 AM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Could get interesting in NE later this week. The afternoon discussion from the Taunton MA NWS:
WED NGT AND THU...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY LOW OFF THE SE
CST...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SUB-TROPICAL LOW AS IT APPROACHES ERN
NEW ENGLAND. MDLS ARE NOW HINTING THAT THIS LOW MAY GET ABSORBED/
PICKED UP IN DVLPG SW FLOW ALNG THE E.CST AS POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE
TWD THE UPR GRTLKS. AND NAM/WRF HAVE HVY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW JUST BRUSHING ERN MA. HWR...12Z UKMET BRINGS FARTHER W
WITH HVY RNFL INTO ERN MA WED NGT AND THU AM. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER W. IN ADDITION...LOW IS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE ATTM AND LOTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS COMBINED WITH ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM MAY LEAD TO LOW BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL.
NVRTHELESS...WE NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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The wet phase of the has officially made its way into the GOM and the caribbean.Will it spark some late season developement in these areas?? We are just going to have to wait and see what happens.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Nice graphic. Looks like for now the upper-levels are just too unfriendly just about everywhere, except, perhaps, within the deeply-stacked non-tropical low off the southeast coast referenced above (looking more and more subtropical-ish all the time, IMHO), and also in the southern Caribbean. If we are to see anything purely tropical , I would think that the Caribbean does truly have the best shot for the remainder of the next seven days. Of course, things can change. We're talking *weather* afterall 
Still, if I were to be looking out for *tropical* cyclones to affect the U.S. over the next seven days, I would really be looking to Hawaii right now.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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NHC had this at the 11:30AM; any thoughts?
A tropical wave a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is generating thunderstorms and gusty winds. This activity will spread westward through the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days...but development of this system...if any...is expected to be slow to occur.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Gotta believe the strong front sweeping the nation later this week will prevent anything from moving very far west.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
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Slow organization, and gradual development seems likely.... but I think the wave would move just quick enough to escape the grasp of the front..... but it`ll be CLOSE. All-in-all, this is a system to watch, and, in my opinion--has the potential to make a westward run.
Weather_Wise911
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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Florida
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I do believe we will see our next storm soon, just east of the Islands; this area is looking to be better organized by the hour. Not sure which way any storm that forms will move, but maybe wnw?
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
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The wave is holding together quite nicely and from everything i have read, the wind shear is supposed to be less by the time this enters the eastern caribbean. i am not going to speculate on development just yet but if it does hold together then at the very least it is something interesting to look at. i dont know what the timing is going to be with any fronts coming down, but regardless of development, won't this feature eventually start turning more to the north once it gets into the caribbean?
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La Nimo
Weather Watcher
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Loc: st. pete beach 31.35N 67.85W
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There no model support and the shear will pick back up in 3 days thik the wave will more to the NW... At this time don't see the wave becoming a TS..
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Satellite presentation is good, and there is little indication of shear increasing to a destructive extent.
Though this probably wont be a terribly strong storm... a tropical storm doesn`t seem at all out of the question.
WW-911
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
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Loc: Florida
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I would agree with La Nimo, Don't see this wave doing much, there is going to be a lot of shear in 3 to 6 days.
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
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..... as I said earlier... its obvious the shear will be increasing, but not to a destructive extent. The increasing shear would do little more than keep it a weak, immature system--if it does happen to organize to a reasonable extent.
WW-911
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
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Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Hey guys, lets not get too hung up on a back and forth debate here. I had posted a few weeks back that I myself saw our season pretty much done but things can still happen and anything is possible, however the window is closing quickly.
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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90L is up on the nvy site..
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
This could be an interesting storm... 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Early models from wunderground...mostly westerly:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=542&tstamp=200610
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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the investigative area looks like it has a circulation center developing on the visible satellite and at that location it looks to be a bit north of where the early models originated it. the ball of thunderstorms are west of the apparent center though. this will be interesting to watch over the day to see what transforms if anything.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's had a weak circulation for the better part of 18 hours, or so. However, as stated, the upper-levels are not exactly ideal, and only worse up ahead. Already, the vortex has become fully exposed as of this post, with the convection which was over it's eastern semicircle being blown to shreds and away, and the westernmost convection outrunning the swirl to it's west as the swirl tracks more to the north of west. Additionally, while shear at the moment is not horrendous, it is contending with some dry air, and the shear up ahead is very high. It would truly be a miracle if this were to ever become more than a minimal tropical storm in that environment out there lol
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The satellite images are back from their nightly eclipse. No significant change in 90L over a 2 hour period. Coldest clouds tops are in the Montserrat / Guadeloupe Areas.
Latest and models are progging a NW motion. Strange as it may seem the Low is forecast to dive back to the SW near the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is probably due to the Polar Vortex and associated shortwaves over the next few days.
NHC Text models are split on the direction. BAM are progging Low latitude, and westerly. While the LBAR and A98E are going along the Fish spinner route... or Northerly.
More later. Now back to... nothing much. Nice, isn't it!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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From the 530 outlook
A Low Pressure System Has Become A Little Better Defined This
Morning Over The Northeastern Caribbean Sea About 50 Miles South Of
Nevis And St. Kitts. Thunderstorm Activity Has Increased And Also
Become Better Organized...and Environmental Conditions Have Become
Somewhat More Favorable For A Tropical Depression To Develop During
The Next Day Or So.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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vpbob21
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Ohio
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Invest 91L is up on the site, in the east Atlantic around 14/35. With all the westerly shear out there, hard to imagine this one developing much, but it's got some decent covection with it this morning.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Is this the end of 90L?
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_us_loop-12.html
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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basin looked better last november. it's going to have a hard time squeezing out another storm, unless that oncoming wave really calms things down a bit in the deep tropics. the deep troughing in the east late this week should be replaced by some ridging in the western atlantic in another week or so, but nothing high amplitude over the continent. the eastward-moving weak storms in the pacific say it all.. el nino is here, probably in a big way.
HF 1706z12october
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I'm a little impressed. Looks like we've got some slight banding taking place late tonight. Convection is nil in the western semicircle -dried out- and a tad sheared in the east, but it's pretty hard not to be impressed with this. Night vis. loop
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I will agree its been a very quiet year, with all predictions not much will happen. But, please remember the season runs until the end of November. It
only takes one storm to make it a bad season for someone.
Not that there is anything close or any remote chance, but even if a TS or a depression were to hit around Virginia it would cause bad flooding with all the rain they've had this year.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Low pressure has formed in the GOM
230 outlook
Discussion:
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N WEST OF 91W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCED THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO AT THE UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS
FEATURE IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY E TO SE WINDS E OF LOW PRES CENTER
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I was just going to comment on this feature if no one else had. Even though tropical development is not anticipated (due to strong upper-level winds) it does appear that shear is perhaps a bit less than recently analyzed. Additionally, this morning the diffluence seems to be very helpful in spinning up the surface low . I can see a small chance for development, and really think it wouldn't hurt if this feature were tagged as an Invest, personally. Especially living in Texas, I would very much like it tracked.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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You could be right.. This IR image is incredibal to see a strom outwit the shear they expected.. I also found out pressures falling rapidly though has finally slowed a few moments ago. This storm really does need to be watched. An Invest tag absolutely should be needed
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html ...
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Sat Oct 14 2006 05:51 PM)
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EMS
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Wind shear forecast looks favorable in the coming days for this system, especially if it continues towards the east. See link below. Curious as to what the mets think about the chances for development. Can't see anything more than a weak tropical storm out of this one, especially with gulf temperatures dropping, and warm waters remaining relatively shallow.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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As of now no invest on the GOM issue. This is really normal this late in the season with a frontal passage along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall may prove to be an issue but I think a true tropical system event will be hard to achieve right now...
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Invest 92L is up for this system now .
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Oct 15 2006 08:35 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Perhaps normal, but also normal in a sense that the GOM - Caribbean are also something of the preferred development regions during the month of October, the stalled front has seemingly helped spark a formerly benign surface low out there in the BOC, and the diffluence aloft has certainly fanned the flames. With convection waxing and waning and little, if any, turning noted at the surface, this may be it. Still, it appears that shear/upper-level winds are actually marginally supportive for further organization - with the shear by some measures even under 15 knots.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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It is raining here now and looks like more is coming our way. Even though 92L will probably not form into a TS I was wondering what
TX/LA can expect.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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92L probably does not have time to develop as a tropical system, but, in conjunction with the system that is kicking it out to the northeast, it will produce a lot of rain, possibly flooding rains. There will also be an enhanced risk of tornadoes along and east of the system tonight and tomorrow, since it is embedded in a zone of moderate deep-layer shear and it will locally enhance the low-level shear near its path. Shear is a negative influence for tropical development, but is essential for tornado develpment. It will also be a rather windy system in general due to the strong pressure gradient between the large-scale low and the strong high pressure system over the northeast U.S.
Essentially, in terms of sensible weather, 92L will end up being a like a tropical depression or weak tropical storm for SE Texas up through Louisiana, due mostly to the influence of the large-scale features that it is embedded in, rather than the intensity of the system itself.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Nice summation you got in reply from Thunderbird. It essentially has everything I would have to say about 92L, as well, although I actually give it a maybe slightly better chance for further development into an officiated system. So far, surface turning is really not noted, and given it's proximity to land and higher shear, if something is to come together, it needs to do so before interaction with one or both of these becomes absolutely prohibitive. Still, they take-away with 92L is probably best stated as "likely similar to a coastal/landfalling wet TD or TS" - and with an enhanced risk of locally damaging wind gusts and possibly tornadoes. In fact, forecast low level helicity has been indicated to be very high with some runs for SE Tx/La.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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good notes on the western gulf system. it's a little fuzzy whether the current global runs are seeing the tropical feature itself merging into a new low inland or being tracked as itself.. but while none seem to like a closed low over the gulf, most are showing one track from northeast texas up towards michigan. i guess that could be the system. the rain and tornado threats are likely the big ones... maybe some minor coastal flooding.. all threats whether any type of closed tropical system can form or not. time is limited so i would surmise there won't be a classified system. low confidence there.
the old disturbance that has been blocked from recurving into the westerlies north of puerto rico is now backtracking a little as strong northwesterly winds are shoving it in reverse. a couple of the globals like a hybrid-looking northeastward or northward drifting type of system out of it. environment conditions sorta suck though, and they should continue to do so for the foreseeable future (suck meaning shear is high and a good bit of subsidence is getting fed into the frontal-like low). a couple of other models see a system further east in the atlantic.. by mid october that is usually a no go. with the wave coming there should be a last little push for development, shear or no shear... but it may only produce an odd weakling, or easily nothing at all. el nino sits on the throne, and the shear monster ravages the landscape. which is actually a happy story, if you think the 2006 reprieve from hurricanes is a great thing.
HF 1933z15october
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Some things about our GOM feature are hard to ignore (example of buoy reports in the area)
It looks like this could be pulling it off tonight. Shear monster, or not, 92l has not only been persistent, but now pressures are really falling off again.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Good discussions, and it is also worth noting that whatever center there is, is not over land as indicated by the latest . System has produced multiple swirls during the day - with the latest at 23.3N 96.3W at 23Z, which is well over water. Organization remains poor, but it is holding together - has quite an uphill battle though before it can amount to anything more than a breezy rainmaker.
ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A bit off topic. 92L had been termed a "pseudo-tropical" system by SPC a bit earlier tonight.
It now appears that the tropical airmass tornado threat that NWS Slidell, LA mentioned earlier has arrived.
SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for SW LA and SE TX, until 7 AM CDT.
I've also seen mention of former EPAC TD Norman's remnants mixing in with the GOM Low and W TX Shortwave. That's a Tropical airmass!
HPC mentioning isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches from S and SE TX NE to the ARK/LA/MS region.
edit: Buras,LA has been at or near TS Force winds for the last few hours. Seem to recall a peak gust of 41mph. Lowest pressure last hour was just across the Rio Grande at Del Rio,TX. Surface pressure of 999mb!
Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 16 2006 12:56 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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eh, not gonna make it in the gulf. the system out north of puerto rico has slightly better chances as it is over water, but there's almost certainly too much shear at work to let it do much. if it keeps hanging around through the early part of the week it might have a long-term shot, but right now the odds are stacked against.
should have cool, rainy weather here east of the appalachians for the next few... good wedge scenario set up with the high northeast and the deepening low back over texas. this sort of pattern in the winter usually has us pondering frozen precip, but in october it's a weak attempt at a tropical storm and a nice cool monday.
HF 0512z16october
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I read that, also. Calling the system approaching the coast "pseudo-tropical" is probably about as accurate and honest as it gets. The past few days the broader area of low pressure has spun out short-lived lower-level spins, occasionally some of these have been strong-enough to discern a loose cyclonic surface center. Alas, the original center fix for 92L has been written off, and convection has abated (much as it did last night) - but possibly more so tonight because the warm front - helping to fan it's flames - has moved well north. If there is any semblance of 92L left tonight, it is probably most visible in that "pseudo-tropical" system now producing gales offshore of Texas, waterspouts and tornadoes.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Man, oh man, y'all. (Had to throw in the "y'all" because I am posting from Texas, here).
Staying fairly close to topic, because we are discussing "wannabes" at the moment ...
If we/I didn't know any better -- and if the wind flow was not so stubbornly from the S/SSE still -- this "pseudo tropical" feature here would all but pass for a TS any day.
Check out this representative buoy, for starters.
Another very TS-like quality (again, stressing that this is *not* a tropical cyclone, but so much like one in effect) .. check out all these rapid-fire severe thunderstorm with tornado potential/tornado warnings (this list is not even counting the plethora of warnings for waterspouts offshore).
Tell you what -- with this activity, if I see a few Northerly wind reports here overnight I would not bat an eye.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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System appears to be covering a much wider area now. As SPC has issued another Tornado watch . From Intracoastal City to Boothville,LA.
At this posting NWS Slidell,LA has 2 TOR warnings in effect for two parishes S of New Orleans.
SPC believes the storm helicities will increase near sunrise. Currently helicities are in the 100-200 m2s2 range and they are forecasting them to reach the 300 m2s2 range.
Plenty high enough for a non? tropical system. That 300 m2s2 is in/ near F3 Tornado range.
New Orleans/ Slidell Doppler wind profiler is indicating 35 kt winds at 1000ft above ground level. With max winds at 45kt, several 1000 feet above the ground.
If someone handed me the pics of the current Doppler sets I would certainly think that a tropical Low was nearby.
Buoy 42019 was reporting wind speeds near Tropical Storm force earlier. As was ShellOil's BRUTUS platform, located in Green Canyon. I believe the lat/ long was 27.1N/ 92.1W.
Also of note was the Mid Lake Ponchartrain Buoy. Tide was 2.88ft above sea level. Last I checked, and has been rising most of the evening.
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