Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'm starting this a little early this year for those of you that want to make a long-range guesstimate. Last year most of the forecasts were way too high - partly influenced by the record season in 2005 and significantly affected by the onset of an unexpected El Nino. There are now enough good indicators to gain some early insight into the upcoming tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic basin. This is simply a follow-on to HanKFranK's previous thread. On March 10th, Tropical Storm Research upped their 2007 outlook to 17/9/4 and their next forecast will be issued on April 3rd. Colorado State University (Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray) called for 14/7/3 in their initial December outlook and their next forecast will be issued on April 5th.
If you want to take a shot a beating the pros on this, get your own forecast in by April 2nd . Add your rationale if you wish, but its not required.
Although we had an early start to the winter season in November, after a mild December and January, the coldest temperatures of the season in the Southeast again occurred in February so I don't see much chance for an early season storm (and that thought will probably come back to haunt me). El Nino has become La Nina in the tropical east Pacific and with the anticipation of less windshear in the tropical Atlantic, an increase in tropical cyclone activity seems likely for the 2007 season.
While a moderate La Nina is expected to be in place for the entire season, it is also worth noting that the positive SST anomalies in the Atlantic are anticipated to decline from May through August. If the tropical Atlantic runs slightly cooler than normal during the upcoming Summer, some of the initial high-side forecasts may not verify.. My own thoughts haven't changed any since January 16th, so I'm going with 14/8/4 this year, with a distribution as follows:
M/J = 0; J = 1; A = 2; S = 5; O = 4; N = 2; D = 0
Analog Years: Difficult to find any - perhaps 1998 comes closest to expectations.
Threat Areas: A broad spectrum this year - including the Gulf coast, the Southeast and the Northeast. I expect an active (but average) Cape Verde season.
Please limit your posts in this thread to your own forecasts and reasoning (if any) for the 2007 season. If you've already posted your thoughts in the previous thread, you can update those forecasts here. We'll use both threads to see who did the best at the end of the season. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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No real rationale here...I have bumped mine up slightly but still running below what is expected. 11/5/2
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I believe things are really gonna act up, especially when we have an La Nina coming or could actually be here from what i've been reading. Course, this is only my opinion and we'll have to wait and see what happens when we actually get our storms. So... I still have my numbers set for 18/9/6 "might bump up by April"
- Major Hurricane strike on the Northeast
- Possible "Katrina" like Hurricane somewhere along the Gulf Coast
- Slamming Tropical Storms in Florida, a few Hurricanes
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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My December numbers were 13/7/4, but due to the obvious change in circumstances, I think I'll be revising my numbers to 15/9/5.
Edited by Myles (Sun Mar 11 2007 11:48 PM)
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VMI Bran
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Pure speculation at this point, but I just don't see the La Nina situation kicking in enough to make it that much more of an active season. With that in mind, I'll go slightly above average at 13/7/3.
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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I have read that La Nina may not be at its strongest until December, so I'll go with 13/6/3.
As far as impact areas, let's see how the Bermuda High sets up.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Just saw the local news,And they were saying La Nina is to blame for the very dry conditions in Florida.Looks like La Nina is strong enough NOW to affect the weather.Then again even neutral can be bad news.16/10/5
Edited by ftlaudbob (Thu Mar 15 2007 06:30 PM)
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MetOc
Unregistered
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I wish to weigh anchor and join the multitude making Hurricane seasonal Forecasts.
I really don't believe anyone has significant skill in this arena and last year's forecasts rather clearly bear that out. Hurricanes are not distributed in the Gaussian "bell" curve. Nonetheless, I'll make the forecast the there will be eighteen named storms, including a couple of early ones impacting Florida, due to a strong early Bermuda High and the lack of deep penetration of the late season cold air outbreaks that cool the Atlantic (south of 30 N) and Gulf of Mexico. These coupled with low shear from La Nina will allow a large number of storms to get generated. There will also be more than average hurricanes, and I will predict 10, but above that number the increase in ocean mixing from the hurricanes themselves becomes self-limiting. I will also predict 4 major storms, of which two will make landfall, one near the Florida/Georgia border as a result of a restrengthening Bermuda High as the storm recurves, and another in the Upper Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England.
So the Count is 18/10/4
Have fun...
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Basically i forsee an active season number wise this time around with a weak nina to neutral conditions across the atlantic basin.Perdicting were the bermuda high will park itself this season this early in the game is just not possible but if i had to pick a season with similar tracks we might see iam going to go with 2004 with a strong ridge putting florida at an above average risk of seeing several landfalls.What kind of Steering currents might be in place this season?We could either see a troffiness sending everything out to sea as we saw in 06 or will a strong ridge send systems towards florida and the eastcoast.Alot of questions still yet to be answered and will likely remain that way for atleast for another 2-3 months.In my opinion numbers predicted arent really that important because even a quite season can be deadly as we have seen in several ocations with 1992 being a prime example.It only takes one to ruin lives and haveing 25 systems develope this season is not important as the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.Hopefully the 2007 hurricane season will once again spare our shores.
PS! Use this time wisely and create a hurricane plan for you and your family and know what would you do if your emergency management asked you to evacute and begin trying to get into the mode that in a few months we may once again be faced with the possiblity of a significant event in the united states.Overall my advise get your essentials and dont wait till june1 do it now.
My numbers 15/10/4
Edited by Hurricane29 (Tue Mar 20 2007 02:59 PM)
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Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
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15-8-4
I've been watching the Saharan dust activity for the last month and it seems awfully heavy. I dont know if that is normal for this time of year or if it will be persistent.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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I had to search to see what I'd posted earlier. I'm going with 12/8/4.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I see no reason to dispute TSR which I have found to be fairly reliable but I will average Colo. State and TSR and go with 16/8/4.
Last week's pattern looked very much like a summer one...early start to the season; maybe about a month early (busier July and August than normal) with as many as 8 before Labor day. If La Nina strengthens over the fall then that will support the numbers I have provided.
Who knows where they will go. The recent study published last week concerning analysis of overwash from major storms over an estimated several thousand year period said probability of a direct strike by a major (IV-V) is .3%...
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doug
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The latest SST forecast was issued this morning by CPC:
CPC 6-Month SST Forecast
The CPC outlook continues to show a robust La Nina in the eastern tropical Pacific during the Summer but it also indicates a continued cooling trend of the tropical Atlantic during August and September. The accuracy of the forecast is not as significant to me as is the continued trend toward a cooler tropical Atlantic by mid-Summer.
Looking at previous years where a weak El Nino switched to a La Nina event during the early Spring can also be helpful in developing an outlook for this season. Four representative years are noted, along with the storm totals for those seasons:
1954: 11/8/2
1964: 12/6/6
1970: 10/5/2
1988: 12/5/3
The best analog years from an viewpoint are 1964 and 1988. Both of these years had an average anomaly of +0.8C during the D/J/F timeframe - as does 2007.
If this cooling trend materializes during the Summer, the chances for late-season activity will decline. My new seasonal distribution is as follows:
M/J = 0; J = 2; A = 4; S = 4; O = 2; N = 1; D = 0
Although I've left the door open for a subtropical system in November, my revised seasonal forecast is 13/7/3 .
Cheers,
ED
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Robert A
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Central Florida
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I'll go with 17/7/3
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I think it is reasonable to say 16/8/4. Looking at El Nino/LaNina only and looking in 2004-2005, I could actually be compelled to go higher. There were 14 in '04, but El Nino shut the season down after Jeanne in late September. As for 2005, it was a Nino neutral year. I do not propose something like 2005 because the trade winds have been to strong to allow for the level of ocean warming we saw in the Atlantic during 2005. Based on current and future forcast water temps, I believe we will see storms forming further in toward the ...that may be a bad trend.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Colorado State University (Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray) team have issued their April forecast update today - for expected Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Their forecast numbers have increased to 17/9/5 - the same forecast numbers that were issued last April.
ED
Added: 04/03
TSR's April Forecast has been issued and their numbers are: 17/9/4.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 04 2007 12:24 PM)
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Nateball
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
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I very much look forward to learning some new things from everyone this season as I already have over the last 2. My early numbers this year would be 15/7/3
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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
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I was waiting for Dr.Gray/Mr Klotzbach judgement on what they think the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season would look like so I could make a judgement of my own. Well, they are going with 17 named storms / 9 hurricanes / 5 Intense Hurricanes. I will somewhat agree with their "forecast" stating that it will be an active season.
Im going with those numbers 16/8/4 for this season. Cy'all soon.
Edited by Bee-Beep (Wed Apr 04 2007 02:19 PM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I'm going to be way high again this year.
TD/TS/HU/MH
24/22/11/06
Tropical Depressions: 24
Tropical Storms: 22
Hurricanes: 11
Major Hurricanes: 6
Right now, my logic is simple:
Above average Sea Tempratures
better Atmospheric conditions
Of course when i keep adding things up by month, I keep getting to 19 by the end of november, but 22 named storms was my gut instinct so I'm sticking with it.
There won't be an El Nino to shut the season down like last time, so yeah, we're going to have late season fish spinners... really... you believe me, right? 
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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John C
Unregistered
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11/5/2
Now off to get a lottery ticket
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