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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
African Dust - good/bad?
      #74387 - Tue Mar 27 2007 05:42 PM

Someone please refresh my memory -- is African dust good or bad for us in terms of storms? I was thinking lots of dust was good for us in the states in terms of keeping storm development lower?

I saw on the ATWD that there's an area of dust reaching 50W.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74389 - Tue Mar 27 2007 11:37 PM

Dust is good and bad. Good in the sense that it can squelch tropical waves and keep storms from forming in the Atlantic. Bad in the sense that these features may develop further west, once they've escaped the throng of the dust, and more readily impact land areas. This is because the low level winds -- the ones that steer the weakest features -- are generally out of the east and east-northeast across much of the Atlantic, whereas the mid and upper level winds -- the ones that steer stronger features -- will often capture something before it gets too close to the US.

So, to answer your question...yes

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: Clark]
      #74390 - Wed Mar 28 2007 02:33 PM

A really good example is Hurricane Irene in 2005, that storm was struggling from TS force to Deppression, If I can remember I believe the meteorologist said it was all due to the dust. There was alot of dust coverage in 2005. Irene finally pulled itself together and almost impacted the Northeast but took a sharp turn near Bermuda instead. Shear was also its problem during that time.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: allan]
      #74391 - Wed Mar 28 2007 10:48 PM

Does the next forecast come April 1st??? I should know this by now:-)
Thanks!
Christine


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: sara33]
      #74393 - Thu Mar 29 2007 02:28 AM

This link is to a satellite photo of the pre Katrina SAL. Taken on Aug 12,2005 at 1200Z ( 6am EDT).
I believe the Tropical System in the upper left corner of the photo is Hurricane Irene. Mentioned above by Allan.

Pre Katrina SAL 12 Aug05 12Z

Edited by danielw (Tue Apr 03 2007 10:22 PM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: sara33]
      #74394 - Thu Mar 29 2007 10:04 AM

Quote:

Does the next forecast come April 1st??? I should know this by now:-)
Thanks!
Christine




Depends which one your talking about? Grays update is the april 3rd which is next week followed by TSR on the 5th.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74411 - Tue Apr 03 2007 03:18 AM

In general, I have to go with Clark with this one. Recently, I revisited a video composed by Mr.McElroy of Charley's before, during and after of Hurricane Charley in Charlotte County. For those who still have it, you will notice in the satellite intro of Charley. In it, you will see this hurricane while it was a TD out by the Windwards. At that time, it had a large plume of dust just ahead (just to the west) and to the north of it. Charley slowly and steadly intensified in the Carribean, but became a monster in the Gulf...under a different set of dynamics. Last years SAL project by the Verdes was interesting to hear about. I haven't seen the results, but I'd propose funding for this research during neutral El Nino conditions and La Nina conditions to get a better picture of dust influence. Finally, I think we will need to rely on our meteorological researchers to make the relationships between this dust and the other overall weather patterns. If you have been tracking and researching hurricanes as long as I, you will know that there is no one true smoking gun...In reading the forecasts for next season, you will also not that nobdy mentions dust, but they all back their forcasts heavily on one indicator or another...It is further proof that this science has further to grow.

In the mean time, hope all is well and everyone is considering their seasonal preparednes plan. It doeslooklike a lengthy season at this point.


Edited by dem05 (Tue Apr 03 2007 03:22 AM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: dem05]
      #74419 - Wed Apr 04 2007 01:14 PM

Is there a link to that?

Charley's the one that swiped us.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74421 - Fri Apr 06 2007 01:26 AM Attachment (351 downloads)

I found a great picture of the dust around the early stages of Hurricane Charley. I cannot find Mr.McElroy's video online, but this picture really tells the tale.Charley was actually surrounded by dust...I wonder if this influenced/ helped to influence the storm's tiny diameter. (The photo is attached above)

Edited by dem05 (Fri Apr 06 2007 01:27 AM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: dem05]
      #74422 - Fri Apr 06 2007 05:24 PM

I would be very interested in knowing that if anyone knows the answer to that question.

One of the "good" things about Charley was his small diameter and fast speed. Had he been larger in size and slower in movement with the same windspeed, he would have devastated the entire peninsula, and most likely would have avoided being sucked into Charlotte Harbor. Which means he could have gone further north to Sarasota/St. Pete/Tampa and gone up the bay.

As bad as Charley was, he could have been so much worse had he been larger and slower.

We see summer thunderstorms that do exactly what Charley did with Charlotte Harbor, because it's shallow and warmer than the Gulf usually (because it is shallower).

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: dem05]
      #74434 - Fri Apr 13 2007 01:09 PM

Interestingly, one of the professors here at FSU had a theory that the dust could cause storms to do that...but nothing really ever came of it. It makes some physical sense and may be being studied elsewhere, but I think there are a few more basic issues to address before getting to that point with dust research.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: African Dust - good/bad? [Re: Clark]
      #74435 - Fri Apr 13 2007 07:29 PM

I just received this story from the NASA Science email today talking about dust and hurricanes.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/13apr_dustyhurricanes.htm?list954164

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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