F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)
weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74601 - Tue May 08 2007 04:01 PM

Indeed the banding features have--but it's still not the amount, or the organization of convection I'd like to see with a tropical--or subtropical--storm.

Still think we just need to monitor this one a little while longer before we "pull the trigger."


WW-911


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74602 - Tue May 08 2007 04:02 PM Attachment (245 downloads)

Couldn't agree more. I strongly feel if this system holds together like it is now that we will have Andrea by tomorrow. Several meteorologists here at the NWC all agree this is a strong scenario. This is indeed an interesting start to the 2007. The latest SST from LSU is attached.

--------------------


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #74603 - Tue May 08 2007 04:08 PM

000
WONT41 KNHC 082003
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

--------------------


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
so i guess we sit and wait [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #74604 - Tue May 08 2007 04:26 PM

thanks for the heads up and seems for now it's a waiting game.

great pic of john hope, thanks hurricaneguy

watching it on invest and have seen models... pretty amazing as it's the beginning of may

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: LoisCane]
      #74605 - Tue May 08 2007 04:33 PM

Hmm IMHO What we have out there is now already a subtropical storm, but not yet named, and may not be until post-season reanalysis. But... thinking, as others have opined, that if it holds at it's current intensity and structure - or, improves some more - not only is recon a sure bet, but so would be the naming, by noon Wednesday. For whatever it's worth, the system meets the basic definition of a subtropical storm already. Andrea works for me!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: cieldumort]
      #74606 - Tue May 08 2007 04:41 PM

Well, at least our westerly sea breeze finally kicked up -- I can actually SEE clear, blue skies outside without a hint of smoke.

What do the sea breezes do to a system like this? Will it just barrel through them, do they steer it, or do nothing, etc.?

And any ideas what to expect if this gets into the GOM?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: cieldumort]
      #74607 - Tue May 08 2007 04:43 PM

Looking at Savannah radar, there is some SOLID rain bands headed into there in the next 6 hours or so and they are growing as they near the coast.....looks MUCH more impressive than it did this morning. This storm seems to be ramping up as far as the rain and banding go. I just hope the ridge in that high pushes it far enough south to bring solid moisture into central florida. The smoke is choking me!! it may not get the NAME of a tropical system, but those along the coast in its immediate past better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: so i guess we sit and wait [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74608 - Tue May 08 2007 04:57 PM

Quote:

better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!




That is actually some good advice. I do not really believe there is a lot of merit is "arguing" about whether or not this is or is not tropical, subtropical or just a 'storm', the fact remains that it *is* a storm and has the potential to cause damage to the unprepared. Those along the coast, especially, should always take storms, no matter what their classifications or names or lack thereof, seriously and prepare as if it was a tropical cyclone capable of damaging their property or causing them or their family harm.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74609 - Tue May 08 2007 05:09 PM

I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?

Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...

Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?

How much of a storm should we prepare for?

Cheers,

VS

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74610 - Tue May 08 2007 05:17 PM

Quote:

How much of a storm should we prepare for?


Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now. That said, you would be prudent to keep touch with your local official weather sources, and of course, keep your eye on the information that can be gleaned through this board as well. Obviously, your first source is the NHC. The operative word is 'prepared', not just for this storm, for all of them.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74611 - Tue May 08 2007 05:32 PM

A quick look at the latest visible imagery shows the system looks to be getting better organised with increasing convection now popping up, and wrapping closer to the centre. Could we see Andrea before recon goes out??

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74612 - Tue May 08 2007 06:03 PM

Quote:

I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?

Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...

Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?

How much of a storm should we prepare for?

Cheers,

VS



on the question of a storm surge....that may not be what to worry about, but I just saw a news reports (Channel 13 in Tampa) of massive beach erosion all the way down in Jupiter which is northern Palm Beach county. They showed a boat house leaning toward the water and reported 100 feet of beach lost in some places. If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Ricreig]
      #74613 - Tue May 08 2007 06:05 PM

Quote:

Quote:

How much of a storm should we prepare for?


Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now.




Oh, I was not worried about any danger from this one, rather I was *hopeful* that this system would deliver plenty of water on Volusia county, but in this case should I worry about a possible storm surge effect from combined rainfall and a surge?

Could it be that I am already observing a surge?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74614 - Tue May 08 2007 06:11 PM

Quote:


If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.




no, I will be fine from any beach erosion, we are off the bay which itself is off the Intercoastal River. But flooding is a real possibility.

However, the rest of New Smyrna is in huge danger I suppose, as our beachside has yet to recover from the battering it took from a chunk of Ivan in 2004 which broke of and sent huge waves which really messed up our beaches. For a while it looked like New Smyrna Beach would be renamed New Smyrna Shores, but then we got some of it back, but there is still plenty of sand missing.

When I arrived in New Smyrna, in 2002, it had what I thought were the most beautiful beaches on the entire Atlantic coast of Florida, but now they have shrunk by a lot. I dread to think at what our beaches will look like if we get even more erosion.

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74615 - Tue May 08 2007 06:19 PM

For New Smyrna, I wouldn't THINK that you would get any major storm surge with the storm in this location. In fact, if it continues westward, you may begin to see the water recede a bit when the wind shifts to the west. The beaches are gonna still get battered by pretty good waves, but storm surge is usually worst on the north and northwest side of a westward moving storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #74616 - Tue May 08 2007 06:43 PM

Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74618 - Tue May 08 2007 06:45 PM

Quote:

Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?




Looks like it's moving due northwest to me.

Edit: Looks now like the image just jumped from one frame to the next. The actual LLC is still moving due west.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue May 08 2007 07:06 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: Hugh]
      #74620 - Tue May 08 2007 09:06 PM

Wanted to check in before i hit the sack so is our low maintaining strength, weakening, or getting stronger? What's going on out there with it and why?



Edited by MikeC (Tue May 08 2007 09:18 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74621 - Tue May 08 2007 09:11 PM

GFDL has been run on the system, and takes it to high-end TS/ virtually minimal hurricane strength before making landfall and weakening. GFDL is often a bit generous with new systems, so I would not put all my eggs in that basket, but it does suggest that at least some potential for an intensifying storm does exist. Really, this *is* already a subtropical storm by all reasonable academic measures. Whether NHC names it or not, is another story. Perhaps they only add it post-season. My own opinion is naming now does a greater public service. Regardless of what it's called or not called, current effects are very similar to an offshore TS coming onshore, but perhaps not quite as wet, and without as much risk of serious damage.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: could there be a storm surge from this system?! [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #74624 - Tue May 08 2007 09:23 PM

The system is getting a bit better organized, but there still lacks any real convection around the center. It's just going to run out of time I think, before hitting land in Georgia. So Andrea or not really depends on what state the system is in next morning.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 29805

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center