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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? No
      #74741 - Fri May 11 2007 04:37 PM

Andrea has been pushed off away and no longer an issue. This morning it's actually looking a bit better organized, but the front and colder waters are very near, so it's assumed to just have run out of time. This isn't necessarily a precursor to the rest of the season, it fairly likely June will be mostly inactive. This time of year for development you would look to the Western Caribbean, and not much is there now. (Discussion of West Caribbean Model hyperactivity here)

The start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st.

Hurricane Preparedness week is May 20-27th.

The Florida Sales Tax Free Holiday for Hurricane preparedness items begins the first week of June and ends midnight June 12th.
  • Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
  • Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
  • Tarps - $50 or less
  • Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
  • Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
  • Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
  • Portable generators - $1,000 or less
  • Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
  • Storm shutter devices - $200 or less

Original Update
Andrea fell apart yesterday and the last advisory was issued at 11PM last night, however...

The remnants of Andrea have held together well and are now 75 miles east of Central Florida, and may once again have a chance to develop. This time however it's developing more true tropical characteristics and may have a shot at becoming a true Tropical Depression soon. This is a very interesting May system.

However, the cold front talked about before is still approaching and is more than enough to kick it away, but it will be an interesting twist if Andrea redevelops. Once again, aircraft recon is scheduled for tomorrow morning if the storm persists overnight (and it looks like it may)

However, all said, it is still not likely the system will regenerate enough to be considered a depression, but it's more tropical than it once was.

More to come later...

Andrea Remnants:
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Andrea

Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)

Radar Loops
Jacksonville FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

More on the Links page


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74742 - Fri May 11 2007 05:12 PM

Had a nice blow up earlier, died some and is now firing again. Nice blow up going on right now on the SE side of the system. Sure looks like a Tropical Depression......too bad the plane isn't going out there now. I think they'd find something.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #74743 - Fri May 11 2007 05:15 PM

Radar imagery from Melbourne seems to show that the system may now be starting to move with at least some easterly component. Also looks as if it may be tightening up a little, but still pretty skeletal. Satellite still shows deep convection over the southeast of the LLCC. Maybe it might hold just long enough to be reclassified!

EDIT:
Radar and visible imagery shows convection really getting going over and to the southeast of the centre. Seems to be growing some, with some moderate convection now kicking up on the southwest band overland Florida.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Fri May 11 2007 05:48 PM)


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dem05
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74744 - Fri May 11 2007 05:46 PM

This may sound a bit "Point-Counterpoint"...and yes...I'm representing Florida well here as a rain wishcaster right now, here. But I'll put my money with the NOGAPS at this point.

A.) It was the first model to really pick up on something "Andrea" and try to do something with it.
B.) In general, it has done a better job of putting Andrea's remenants where they are right now.

From this point, even though it has weakened, the system looks more tropical than any model, forecaster, or any of us may have expected. The evolution of this system and it's surrounding environment has been somewhat complicated. I yield to the fact that the models may see something that is not actually there. NHC made reference in a one of their advisory discussion packages that Andrea would decouple between the surface and upper levels. It has done that and the models (i.e. GFS, UKMET, CMC, etc.) may be handling the Mid-Upper level components of the system moreso in each of their runs. The additional reason why I like the NOGAPS model at this point is that that it does pull Andrea's remenants (Or possible Andrea Reborn) to the NE for a short time as the relatively small trough and front comming down interacts with it. After that, it then recognizes that the mid lattitude environment is progressively evolving at a fast pace. The high passes behind the trough/front and moves to the north of "Old Andrea"...Blocking the Andrea remenants/redeveloped system in. From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.

NOGAPS 850mb 12Z Run: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

NOGAPS Surface 12Z (Watch the ridge pass/block to the north): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.

Edited by dem05 (Fri May 11 2007 05:52 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #74745 - Fri May 11 2007 05:57 PM

Maybe, but I'd lean towards not enough to be classified quite yet, though the T numbers are now at 1.0/1.0 Once it gets to 1.5 and there's still a definite closed circulation on radar, I think they'll reinitiate advisories on the system. The convection is pulsing, and dragging the coc further to the south, which could keep it over warmer waters.

I'm impressed with the tenacity of the system, and it's certainly warmcore now. However the system is extremely fragile in the sense that anything disruptive will probably open the low. Heck, a good outflow boundry could kill this system as is.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: dem05]
      #74746 - Fri May 11 2007 06:32 PM

I agree with ya Dem05. I have sinced kept a close eye on NOGAPS.. seems to do good with systems like that. However tonight the storms are flaring up nicely... will they hold? I agree that this is becoming more warm core now. If the current trend holds... i would expect recon to find something interesting in the morning.
Might be an interesting night watching the sats and radars!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri May 11 2007 06:41 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: dem05]
      #74747 - Fri May 11 2007 06:47 PM

Quote:

From this point, she moves south into the Bahamas then westward across Florida (Say around West Palm with an exit in SWFL) ...progressively weakening from the Bahamas onward.
Yeah...rain wishcasting...but the possibilty of this actually happening cannot be discredited or discounted either.




I went to the links, and it looks like they show the system dissipating over the Bahamas, not crossing the state. What am I missing?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #74748 - Fri May 11 2007 07:48 PM

You are right, Bloodstar- this tenacious system shows signs of developing but it seems the system will die over the Bahamas before it can get a season's first test run over Florida. The coming front may not be strong enough to nudge this system away- but I don't see this from becoming a rain threat to Florida.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74749 - Fri May 11 2007 09:58 PM

That ULL in the GOM is still moving east. Don't think our low off of Florida will make it between all the features
Water Vapor What i do like is its looking like all that dry air over parts of Florida is finally going away! Just looks like alot of Sea Breeze T-storms now, which may cause more wildfires next week unless we get a good soaking rain in the areas that really need it.. THE WHOLE STATE!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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h2ocean
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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #74750 - Fri May 11 2007 10:21 PM

Here in E. Central FL, the barometric pressure has starting climbing from this afternoon. We had a gust of 32 earlier today. I checked the buoys where the center is between and both are also rising. I wish it would come back to FL as we need the rain, but the chances are VERY slim.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri May 11 2007 11:25 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: h2ocean]
      #74758 - Sat May 12 2007 02:31 AM

At 0545utc today, the system had TNumbers of 1.5/1.5 up from the 1.0/1.0 of yesterday.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74759 - Sat May 12 2007 09:41 AM

Wiping the sand out of my eyes here. 'Morning. Just looking over this most recent image.

We're still calling these "Andreas Remnants"- lol - seems like there should be a better description, even if not TD owing to technical qualifications unmet. We've seen worse looking TDs. There is now a pretty decent convective feeder band from the s-sw, and on again off again ball of convection right about the LLC, And pressures were dropping throughout the night in a couple of places.

However, the strongest winds I have found within 150 nm radius of the approximate center came in a few hours ago at 32 knots, from only one ship report (QCd?), while the rest of the buoy, c-man & ship data leaves me entirely unimpressed. And now a lot of area pressures seem to be rising some again, and in some instances they are much higher than when x-Andrea was actually a named system.

One thing for sure, x-Andrea seems a lot more juiced up in the lower levels than at other times in days passed. If Florida could only get a lucky break and have her slide inland while not producing nearly as much wind as earlier, but with these healthy blowups of convection!


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74760 - Sat May 12 2007 09:44 AM

Quote:

At 0545utc today, the system had TNumbers of 1.5/1.5 up from the 1.0/1.0 of yesterday.




And yet there is absolutely NO mention of the system on NHC's website this morning. The last advisory for Andrea has been removed, and there is no Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. The recon Plan of the Day shows a flight into "Subtropical Storm Andrea" for 12/18z - I thought yesterday it showed it as remnants of Andrea. What is going on with the folks at the NHC????

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74761 - Sat May 12 2007 10:23 AM

They talk about it in today's TWD:

Quote:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.




But realistically, it's not a "system" at this point, so while they're keeping an eye on it, they're walking the line between watching and beating the public over the head with it and risking desensitizing them this soon into the season.

It's just the geeks like us who are watching it. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74762 - Sat May 12 2007 10:32 AM

Quote:


But realistically, it's not a "system" at this point, so while they're keeping an eye on it, they're walking the line between watching and beating the public over the head with it and risking desensitizing them this soon into the season.
It's just the geeks like us who are watching it. *LOL*




If it's not a "system" at this point, it probably never was, and shouldn't have been classified if that was the case.
There is significantly more convection near the center than there ever was when it was considered a subtropical storm. Rotation can be seen on the Melbourne long range radar. I'm not saying it's the most impressive sight ever, but it's no less of a tropical cyclone than it was when it was named, based upon satellite and radar presentation. The WV loop shows shear, though, so even if it is currently a TD/TS, it likely won't survive.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Central Florida
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: madmumbler]
      #74763 - Sat May 12 2007 10:33 AM

NRL has it at 25 kts and 1005 mb, given that and the lack of a discernible center on Melbourne radar, i am going to guess that the recon flight will be canceled

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rabbit]
      #74764 - Sat May 12 2007 10:55 AM

To call it 25 knots overall seems reasonable. I can't find anything in the way of ground-truthing the available QuikSCAT data, which actually indicates top winds near the LLC approaching 35 knots, and in the feeder band even approaching something closer to 45 knots! (Here)
& (Here)



I have to conclude that a lot of these strongest winds are just a mix of rain-contamination, and perhaps a few stronger gusts within some strong thunderstorms... (notice how some of the winds are suggested to be going against x-Andreas surface rotation, for example).

Still, I don't think recon should be scrubbed. They wouldn't be investigating a hurricane to be sure, but they would be investigating an impressive Invest still close to land. Makes sense to me!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74765 - Sat May 12 2007 11:03 AM

Quote:

Still, I don't think recon should be scrubbed.




it shouldnt be, but probably will be
unfortunately, since its May, we're not finding anything new out for several hours, since there is no tropical outlook


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rabbit]
      #74766 - Sat May 12 2007 11:04 AM

Quote:

NRL has it at 25 kts and 1005 mb, given that and the lack of a discernible center on Melbourne radar, i am going to guess that the recon flight will be canceled




I guess I'm seeing things, because I see a discernable center on Melbourne radar. It's looking severely sheared on WV though, so you're probably right, especially considering that the NHC has not commented today.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74767 - Sat May 12 2007 11:06 AM

X-Andrea is still not letting go, in fact she is looking good this morning.. good enough to go ahead and get recon over in there. I don't agree with many wunderground bloggers, this storm still has a chance. I'm not an expert or something but I do see a closed circulation. I read one of the blogs that said recon is a no go, and the the circulation is way out of the convection bursts, but from what i'm looking at, it looks like a regular tropical system! Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May? I'm waiting to hear about either TD or TS Andrea by 5 p.m.
I'm not trying to bash wunderground bloggers.. but they need to analyze the storm before just saying that it's gone.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: allan]
      #74768 - Sat May 12 2007 11:28 AM

I dunno, Allan. Looking at the last few hours of the satellite loops, while I think Andrea was arguably sufficiently organized 12 hours ago to be considered a tropical storm, I think the dry air and shear are really taking it apart right now. I'm back on the fence I guess. I can definately see rotation on the Melbourne radar, but it appears to be winding down. Deeper convection that had built up around the LLC has bee sheared off, although an even bigger cluster is present well to the east, giving the system a bit of a frontal appearance to me.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74769 - Sat May 12 2007 11:35 AM

Ok, just looked at both TCPOD on the NHC site. There is no hint that the one for today has been cancelled, and if it is going ahead it should be airborne within the hour. There is also a possible flight tomorrow scheduled on tomorrows TCPOD. Guessing that NHC thinks its still enough to warrant an investigation, and i would be inclined to agree!!

EDIT: Recon cancelled due to resource, but we do have a STDS!!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Sat May 12 2007 11:38 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Rich B]
      #74770 - Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM

I would have thought it would have been airborne by now, but I guess it's a bit early. The main thing that makes me think they've already written it off is that they're REMOVED Andrea from the website. If they were even potentially inclined to reinitiate advisories they would have left it, particular after the Special Tropical Disturbance statement from yesterday afternoon - which they have also issued no follow-up to. But, if they had cancelled the recon, that would have warranted a statement as well, in my opinion (since there is no TWO in the offseason). To be saying NOTHING... well, it says alot.

Edit: Obviously they issued a STDS as I was typing the above! They say it's moving NE though, which it does not appear to be doing.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat May 12 2007 11:43 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: allan]
      #74771 - Sat May 12 2007 11:40 AM

Quote:

Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May?




$$$$$$

They have a limited budget for recon flights each year and while this storm is an oddity and interesting in its own right -- there will be much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season compared to the remnants of Andrea.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Clark]
      #74772 - Sat May 12 2007 11:48 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Also, how can you not fly into a very impressive storm for the month of May?



$$$$$$
They have a limited budget for recon flights each year and while this storm is an oddity and interesting in its own right -- there will be much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season compared to the remnants of Andrea.




The budget should be adjusted for the need. If there are much more severe and life-threatening systems that need recon later in the season (which we all hope won't be the case), they should be able to appropriate emergency funds to do the recon flights then. When I hear "resource issues", I tend to think of personnel issues, but money is obviously an issue as well. However, it shouldn't be. The government spends tons of $$$ every day (on things that are arguably far less of a concern than public safety). Okay I'll get off my soapbox now

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Hugh]
      #74773 - Sat May 12 2007 12:00 PM

There is no reason to send recon out. Its a waste of time and money cause even if it does develop more..it wont affect any landmass..also in 48 hrs or less it will merge with a baroclinic low forming off to the North.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: MikeC]
      #74774 - Sat May 12 2007 02:49 PM

Some good discussion, but also some bad discussion bordering on 'NHC bashing' which for this system isn't really necessary. The recently issued Special Tropical Disturbance Statement should tell you that NHC is still monitoring the low pressure area. The Recon for today was cancelled because of a 'resources conflict', i.e., it was probably something that NHC had no control over (crew availability, aircraft problem, etc.) and another mission has been scheduled for tomorrow if the low continues to become better organized.

The original system update was based primarily on quicksat winds and a ship report of sustained winds at 37 knots - and not a Recon mission. If the low needs to be upgraded again before Sunday afternoon I'm sure that those same parameters will provide the motivation to do so. The system was dropped because it fell below STD requirements and was expected to weaken further (which it did) - but that doesn't mean that it was being ignored.

Will the former Andrea regenerate? Perhaps - but I'm not going to demand updates from NHC on 'my' schedule. Special Tropical Disturbance Statements are issued whenever NHC feels the need to do so - not when we do - and at the moment, nobody is in harms way... I think that they have the bases covered.

While I'm at it, here are a few Administrative Reminders:

The primary purpose of the site is to offer an exchange of dialogue on tropical entities in the Atlantic basin. The Main Page and Storm Forum are more strictly moderated with an attempt to keep the various discussions 'on topic', i.e., associated with the topics that are presented in the lead-off article. Discussions on the Florida drought are better suited to the Everything and Nothing Forum.

One-line posts are normally deleted since they seldom contain any useful information - use the PM capability to thank someone for answering your question or providing helpful info.

It is not necessary to post an NHC bulletin since links to these reports are available on the left side of the screen and above the Main Page. It is okay to quote a portion of a bulletin to emphasize a particular point that you are making in your post.

If you can help us with these three things it will make the task of moderating the site a lot easier. As the season gets underway, please don't get into a fuss with the Moderators - they would also like their experience here to be a pleasant one.

Thanks for your help and for your efforts to make the CFHC an interesting and enjoyable place to visit.
Cheers,
ED


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Clark
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Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74776 - Sat May 12 2007 07:33 PM

This evening, Andrea is looking better than it did a few days ago from a tropical standpoint, but it's not very well organized overall. The persistent convective blowups on the SE side are not translating over the center and often die nearly as fast as they fire. They are likely being driven by the Gulf Stream and the marginal SSTs found there. Everything that satellite shows over the center is just a cirrus canopy, a milky white in visible and light blues and yellows on color-enhanced IR imagery. Ash from the fires to the west plus upper level convergence (confluence -- winds coming together) on the western side of the storm are contributing to the lack of convection there. Essentially, it lacks the "organized" part to its convection and thus is not a classified tropical system. Seeing that on satellite and having other data available to them at least partially led to the NHC's decision (on top of resources).

All in all, Andrea and its remnants have had a good run, but I think the end is near. Water vapor imagery shows a vort max rounding toward the Big Bend region of Florida that should give this just enough of a kick to escape out the escape hatch toward the north and east and into the midlatitudes. Small chance that this doesn't happen and it gets trapped beneath a weak upper ridge to its north and west, but smart money is on the other evolution right now.

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Hugh
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Re: Andrea Remnants will it Reform as a Tropical Cyclone? [Re: Clark]
      #74777 - Sat May 12 2007 09:20 PM

A new STDS has been issued as of 9pm ET... basically says it's not a depression but any increase in thunderstorm activity and they'll re-pull the trigger. Since it's moving away from the U.S. I suspect they won't send a recon in tomorrow (no mention of recon in the statement).

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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HanKFranK
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andrea heading out [Re: Hugh]
      #74778 - Sun May 13 2007 12:26 AM

anybody noticed that if it were during the normal season, that andrea would still be getting advisories? that bunk about 'organized convection' is nothing new--a sheared warm-core system generating tropical storm conditions is a tropical storm. andrea has a history of sitting on the fence, but leaning into the realm of tropical cyclones, and getting late calls. in a few months the post-analysis will be out and i'm willing to bet that the NHC will have this leg of andrea's life cycle as a tropical depression or storm. it's been an interesting, quirky storm that has tested the NHC's ability to stick to routine advisories and make decisions on how to operationally contend with it.
tonight it's blowing a decent burst of convection on it's east side, as it's been doing most of the day. there's clearly outflow from the thunderstorms, and you can see the partially exposed, small LLC slowly speeding up to ene ahead of an approaching upper trough. most of the globals show it captured and finishing up as a deepening frontal low out in the north atlantic, and that looks like the end of things.
past andrea there doesn't look like much on the horizon. GFS is sending pulses of tropcial moisture up in the western caribbean and tagging them with surface lows, but the shear appears oppressively high and these will probably just be the usual type of may rain events that get fed up ahead of mid-latitude troughs. once the upper shear begins to recede, as we get into the early summer, these things are more likely to produce a system. andrea is probably the warning shot for a fairly active season. it may be a couple of months or so before things really start to go, though.
HF 0536z13may


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cieldumort
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74779 - Sun May 13 2007 01:13 AM

HF brings up a great point - that is, storms such as this that do not necessarily pose any imminent threat, and that are in some ways walking the line between called/no call, sometimes just end up left for the post-season reanalysis when a more careful review of the big-picture and facts can take place. In the meantime, lots of local NWS offices have handled Andrea very well, as have the High Seas Forecasts.

It's pretty clear to me that some internal debate has gone on already with regard to how best describe and attribute Andrea. Just within the past few hours I found these two statements capture well what the larger weather community as a whole has been discussing lol

TWD 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007:
"SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST."

STDS 900 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007
"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING"


In any event, if Andrea is to be named Tropical Depression or Storm
in real time she had better do something to impress the sceptics quickly, as it does appear more and more likely that she has a date very soon with increasingly hostile water temperature and wind shear.


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HanKFranK
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: cieldumort]
      #74782 - Sun May 13 2007 10:05 AM

looking more tropical than ever this morning. it's been hanging onto deep convection all night and has decent low-level banding features... you can see it is still ahead of the frontal trough. bermuda has a decent chance of tropical storm conditions late today into tomorrow as andrea whips by. of course, it's not really andrea, it's just a remnant low .
HF 1505z13may

(reference my earlier post. ED)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 13 2007 10:26 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74783 - Sun May 13 2007 11:32 AM

Well, yeah. Overnight and this morning Andrea has reconstituted herself such that IMHO just about any sceptic should now be not only accepting, but embracing of her status as a named storm, and yet, based on the most recent STDS, I can only conclude that NHC has decided to let this one ride out until the post-season, because Andrea overnight and early this morning is looking virtually 100% nameable material.

Lacking any reporting buoys or cman stations in her area at all, and only having a few ships that one could argue are probably trying to avoid her at this point, the apparent decision not to send in recon - again- while understandable, given that she is heading
away from the U.S., is most regrettable. Interests in and close to Bermuda would be wise to treat her as if she was actually a named storm.

Overnight and this morning deeper convection wrapped all the way around the cyclone. Certainly there have been a few breaks in the continuity, and still some more flareups and flaredowns, but overall the structure has been solid, with the LLC nuzzled just about to the right of middle at all times. Even a dimple appeared a few times where a budding eye would eventually try to form in a system with greater chances to grow. Inflow from the south has been nothing but healthy, and there have even been a few outflow channels set up for her, in the SW, NE and SE quads.

The convection doesn't resemble that of a mid-August hurricane traveling through the Gulf of Mexico, because this is most certainly not mid-August and the water temps out where she has been are at least 5c lower than the comparable mid-season example down in the GOM. All the more reason some may want to argue that she is still more subtropical than tropical. I'm still OK with that, I guess. I guess I would say that the far more analogous recent examples at this point would be the late-season northern latitude systems of 2005, than of some early season subtropical disturbance.

It will be interesting to see how she interacts with or responds to the front laying very close to being on top of her now, going forward. That ULL to her west and the front to her north so far have served to create a bit of an outflow opportunity. Merging with the front seems entirely plausible. Would seem less likely but possible for her to be nudged south of it and stay a bit further south, never to merge.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: cieldumort]
      #74784 - Sun May 13 2007 11:58 AM

The circulation of the former STS Andrea does indeed look impressive this morning as the low heads off to the east northeast at 15mph - and the low is moving through a sliver of light shear ahead of the frontal system off to the northwest. But the former Andrea has also moved quite a distance away from the strip of 26C SSTs of the Gulf Stream and is rapidly approaching SSTs of 20-22C - and those temps should motivate full extra-tropical transition into a small gale center.

The center may remain south of the front today, but the SSTs will certainly make it difficult for the low to maintain subtropical characteristics - 21C is mighty cool even for sub-tropical stuff, although this system certainly has had some tenacity. Although examples are somewhat scarce, it would seem reasonable to me for extratropical transition to occur at lower latitudes during the pre-season timeframe.
Cheers,
ED


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Rich B
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74785 - Sun May 13 2007 12:52 PM

Ok, i have been keeping an eye on the visible imagery, and the visible loops, and the exAndrea system has developed a clear central 'eye' like feature, surrounded by moderate convection. Low level banding also remains reasonable. This as it continues moving to the ENE over cooler water. Does anybody else see this?

--------------------
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SkyWarn UK


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Clark
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #74786 - Sun May 13 2007 12:56 PM

Part of it is the distinction between a storm hanging on versus a storm that has already been dropped. I don't think anyone can argue that Andrea should not have been dropped initially when it was after 7 advisories.

The NHC, for right or for wrong, has a tendency to be conservative when a storm still has advisories written on it in dropping the storm. They also tend to be conservative when a storm has already been dropped in picking it back up. They might add some time on in post-analysis, but I don't think it'll include much of today (if any). Satellite imagery shows Andrea's remnant circulation going extratropical as it interacts with the broad trough developing over the east, with well-defined cold and warm frontal boundaries developing.

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HanKFranK
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Clark]
      #74788 - Sun May 13 2007 10:40 PM

most everybody disagrees with me on how to tag andrea. i'm not an expert on the subject, but don't think i'm totally clueless either... but i guess if most everybody with a highly informed opinion has chimed in on one side, and i'm about the only guy yapping on the other... i might be out of my league. in any case, the later part of andrea's life cycle seemed to include regeneration before it fully merged with the frontal boundary late today, so i'm interested in seeing how the authorities will deem to post-analyze the storm. it may have been over cooler waters and all, but from late friday on the persistent convective bursts and the small but well-defined core seemed more than your average remnant low. as the thing picked up speed late saturday and was blowing persistent convection, maintaining a tight core and not part of the frontal zone (and quickscat was showing good evidence of gale force winds), was it then still just a remnant low?
not a definite yes, but not a definite no either, i think. that's for another day, i guess.
HF 0339z14may


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cieldumort
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74789 - Sun May 13 2007 11:33 PM

I'll be the first & I'm sure not the last to say that I essentially agree with HF's assessment of Andreas final hours. I saw nothing overnight last night and into the first 15 or so hours of the day today that resembled "remnants" (of a once named and legitimate system.) I view NHC's decision not to upgrade Andrea real-time as just that: a decision not to upgrade real-time. Every season we witness this, in one fashion or another, and very often with numerous examples. Ultimately Andrea did start to merge with the front and lose her hurricane-like appearance, as well as her other tropical & subtropical features, as she should running off to the east along and with an approaching cold front. But certainly HF is spot-on that before she did, she more than met reasonable qualifiers for TS status.

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danielwAdministrator
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The week(s) ahead [Re: cieldumort]
      #74795 - Mon May 14 2007 09:42 PM

Some of the models are forecasting disturbances in the Caribbean Sea.
See the posts in the 2007 Forecast Lounge

2007 Forecast Lounge

Opens a new window

Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2007 09:47 PM)


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NewWatcher
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Re: The week(s) ahead [Re: danielw]
      #74796 - Tue May 15 2007 08:38 AM

EAST...
CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE
SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY
TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN
SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF
THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND
OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF
FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN
SEABOARD.

When posting an exerpt, please be sure to mention your source.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 15 2007 10:00 AM)


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Clark
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74811 - Tue May 15 2007 10:16 PM

I agree that it'll be interesting to see what they do in the post-analysis and I also agree that you can make the case for adding some regeneration time to the end. But, operationally, unless it is a threat to someone, the NHC generally will be very slow in bringing a storm back -- particularly something that is not 100% clear cut.

I agree with their assessment in the first two days or so after declassification, even when it had one persistent convective flare-up. There wasn't any organization to the convection then and, despite other classified storms looking worse at times, it had already been declassified and thus they had nothing to hang on to. It's the last day or so where the question lies, in my mind, on whether it gets a posthumous upgrade or not. Banding improved, the structure improved, and it was a close call. But, alas, it also was starting to head out to sea.

I would not be surprised to that last day added on to Andrea's lifecycle -- not unlike how the unnamed subtropical storm was added as it accelerated northeast -- but having said that, I also agree with how they handled it operationally. Alas, it's not a bad debate to have for May.

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Psyber
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Clark]
      #74821 - Wed May 16 2007 10:39 AM

Quote:

I would not be surprised to that last day added on to Andrea's lifecycle -- not unlike how the unnamed subtropical storm was added as it accelerated northeast -- but having said that, I also agree with how they handled it operationally. Alas, it's not a bad debate to have for May.




NHC is going to face tough critics for a while longer after 05'. There hasn't been nearly enough finger pointing for the American public to relax. Out of chaos comes order...perhaps there is a silver lining in it all that people will no longer take hurricanes for party events/time off work and school and head inland ahead of storms instead of waiting 24 hours before landfall.

Anyways:
Pretty tenacious for a weak May storm with fairly cool SST's. Slightly warmer than normal but still...lets hope this years storms are not as tenacious on the warmer SST's on their way. I would have thought all the dry air/ash firing off Florida would have given the remnants of Andrea a right hook to the jaw...

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Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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doug
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Psyber]
      #74824 - Wed May 16 2007 01:29 PM

1:30 p.m. Sats and radar suggest that there is a broad low in the vicinity of Andros Is. and GBI. What say anybody else?

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doug


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cieldumort
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: doug]
      #74826 - Wed May 16 2007 01:58 PM

Earlier today there was actually a LLC over the southern Bahamas, which has since been washed out - most likely due to all the shear over the region. Even Floater 1 was briefly being labeled "Invest".

Despite the washing out of a brief disturbance, this area remains of interest, as several models produce not one but two surface lows out of that broad trough over the course of the remainder of this week... the second one seems to be forecast to have better odds of staying over the >26c SSTs for a bit


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Ed in Va
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: doug]
      #74827 - Wed May 16 2007 02:07 PM

To my very nonscientific eye, looks like the area has become better organized over the am and early this
pm.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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rmbjoe1954
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74830 - Wed May 16 2007 02:54 PM

This area has become more pronounced. i do not see this being affected by shear at all as the appearance has obtained more of a circular look. Any idea what the SST is in that area?

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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doug
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Re: andrea heading out [Re: Ed in Va]
      #74831 - Wed May 16 2007 02:55 PM

my untrained eye picks up the signs of a vortex north north west of Andros. It may not be what I would call a LLC but there is some energy there...doesn't seem tropical however.

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doug


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cieldumort
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74832 - Wed May 16 2007 03:48 PM

There is tremendous shear over the area. If your eyes are not yet trained to discern shear, you can always find a professional shear analysis here, from CIMSS. The hotter the color, the greater the shear. Basically, your yellows to oranges are unfavorable. Getting into the reds, brighter reds, hot pink and finally white is highly unfavorable to impossible (for tropical cyclones to form and/or survive).

Right now the high shear over the region is fanning the convection: showers and storms.. but preventing any kind of (tropical cyclone) organization from taking place. The shear will need to relax quite a bit before this area becomes hospitable.


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Clark
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: cieldumort]
      #74833 - Wed May 16 2007 03:55 PM

This is the beginnings of a late-season coastal low that should begin to move north and affecting New England and the related coastal waters over the next couple of days. Not a whole lot to worry about tropically, fortunately.

The ECMWF model, however, spit out something interesting for the long-range -- 5-10 days out -- time period in it's latest run. See this link for the details. This model is normally very reliable, the best out there in the medium- and long-range by far, and a friend of mine (and I) can't remember the last time we've ever seen it do something like this in May. It meets the basic test of lower pressures in the area prior to formation, but I really have a hard time believing the forecast given the month. Something worth watching, however.

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madmumbler
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Clark]
      #74836 - Wed May 16 2007 05:22 PM

So is this the same area that the GFS is picking up on that they keep talking about in the HPC Caribbean Forecast Discussions?

Is that why they have the floater over that area now?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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FLGuy
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74839 - Wed May 16 2007 06:57 PM

Is this the correct forum or thread for the discussion of possible storm development?

Check your PM's

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 06:59 PM)


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FLGuy
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: FLGuy]
      #74840 - Wed May 16 2007 07:35 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTH TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN WELL BY THE
NAM12 AND HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND DGEX FOR THE WINDS. THE NAM12 IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS40 WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW FORMING AND
MOVING NORTH

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 08:58 PM)


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madmumbler
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: Clark]
      #74842 - Wed May 16 2007 08:49 PM

From tonight's 8:05pm NHC TWD:

Quote:

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.




Can one of the mets please educate me? Is the NHC saying it's still showing in the models and has not yet developed, or are they saying that it IS developing in real time outside of the models?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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FLGuy
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Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74843 - Wed May 16 2007 09:08 PM

There is a surface low in development north of Andros Island in the Bahamas. That's what is happening.

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Storm Cooper
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Re:Site Rules and Forum Usage [Re: FLGuy]
      #74844 - Wed May 16 2007 09:56 PM

I believe Ed just did something like this (many times) but I feel the need to do it once again. Please, all users, old and new alike.... review the Rules section of this site and try to keep to the proper Forum as best possible.

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--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 16 2007 09:58 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: madmumbler]
      #74845 - Wed May 16 2007 11:23 PM

Quote:

From tonight's 8:05pm NHC TWD:

Quote:

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.




Can one of the mets please educate me? Is the NHC saying it's still showing in the models and has not yet developed, or are they saying that it IS developing in real time outside of the models?




That low has been in all of the models except for the GFS and is developing on schedule. It's not a tropical entity, however. The GFS developed something further south and west in Caribbean which isn't panning out. I wouldn't really trust the GFS right now for system formation purely in the tropics given the substantial changes they made to the model at the start of the month.

It's not the same as the feature that the ECMWF, among other models, is showing for down the line. I think most of the discussion on that is over in the Storm Forum, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2333
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Guidance [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #74849 - Thu May 17 2007 12:34 AM

Read the Forum Descriptions to determine where it is best to place your post.

For discussions on long-range model projections that suggest the development of a tropical or subtropical system, use the Forecast Lounge. A thread on the GFS model is currently active in that Forum.

For discussions about tropical features in the Atlantic Basin, i.e., the ITCZ or existing tropical waves, use The Tropics Today forum.

For Tropical Cyclones and Potential Development Areas (Invests), a thread will be started in the Storm Forum when appropriate.

Finally, note that you can only reply to the topics covered in existing Main Page articles. In other words, if your response concerns a topic that is not mentioned in the Main Page Leadoff Article (or Updates to that Article), then your post probably belongs somewhere else.

If your still uncertain as to where to post something, ask a Moderator for assistance via the PM capability.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re:Future bahamas event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #74857 - Thu May 17 2007 07:21 AM

Hey all apparently there was some confusion last night. The low in the west Caribbean that everyone was talking about is just a forecast from some long range models. Much too wave mongerish for the front page, but ok for the lounge. There's a thread going on about it here

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday correction [Re: MikeC]
      #74888 - Fri May 18 2007 11:28 AM

The information on the front page (which is the article this talkback is for) is slightly incorrect. It states the sales tax holiday is the first week of June. It actually extends from June 1 - to midnight, June 12.

I just received my flier from the FL Dep. of Revenue today in the mail.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Fri May 18 2007 11:29 AM)


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