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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet
      #74925 - Sun May 20 2007 08:55 AM

22 May update
The NOAA Climate prediction center has put out their 2007 report forecast for the 2007 season Here

Named Storms 13-17
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major Hurricanes: 3-5



Original Update
There's a slightly interesting feature in the SW Caribbean, which some of the global models are trying to perk up in before it works its way across onto the Pacific side. We've already seen a May storm (if a subtropical one), and the odds of that are quite long, historically.



Interesting feature in the SW Caribbean; likely nothing.

Our paranoid schizophrenic model friend the GFS has more tropical nuisance coming to call around and after Memorial Day. Don't hold your breath, but definitely check back every so often to see if it persists or if other models start jumping on the bandwagon.



GFS Seeing a feature of interest, Monday evening May 28.

The start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st.

Hurricane Preparedness week is May 20-27th.

The Florida Sales Tax Free Holiday for Hurricane preparedness items begins the first week of June and ends midnight June 12th.
  • Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
  • Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
  • Tarps - $50 or less
  • Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
  • Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
  • Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
  • Portable generators - $1,000 or less
  • Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
  • Storm shutter devices - $200 or less


More links on the Links page

Edited by MikeC (Tue May 22 2007 06:29 PM)


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TS2
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74927 - Sun May 20 2007 09:05 AM

Here the GFS goes again....it might not happen although as you said it's not out of the question.

There is history of Tropical Storms or Hurricanes developing out of that area as my last forum post shows with Hurricane Mitch but at that time the SST's were alot more warmer that they are now but still anything can happen.

--------------------
Dr. Joe Smith

Substitute Teacher at University of Central Florida

GreatWeatherForums




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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib [Re: TS2]
      #74928 - Sun May 20 2007 09:17 AM

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Just my observation that the area developing there now looks like it is in better position to do something which would preclude development in the SW carib for a few weeks.

As for the GFS... worth watching, once the shear moves out something could happen

Heavy rains in Miami all morning, flooded streets, strong wind. Makes hurricane season feel closer.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib [Re: LoisCane]
      #74933 - Sun May 20 2007 07:44 PM

Maybe the GFS has been fairly accurate with the overall picture. Granted...no development...but there has been a decent amount of vorticities to form along the trough extending from the SW Carribean through the Bahamas. Currently, I spot one in the southern Bahamas, another near the Caymans, and another north of Panama. No development to be expected, but the GFS maybe a model to key in on when storms are out there this season. Seems to be reading the overall picture okay to me.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
STill there in SW carib... looking not bad [Re: dem05]
      #74935 - Mon May 21 2007 12:28 PM

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Shear still a factor to it's north but it's just sitting there hanging in.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74937 - Mon May 21 2007 04:20 PM

I find it intriguing that most of the Global based numerical models have been tantilizing us with these Caribbean teasers since...really the beginning of March. I do not recall seeing this specific and rather peculiar behavior in the models persist as often during recent springs (going back to 2000 or so), as we are now. May not mean much more than an interesting artifice of the pattern we have been in; most of these have proven red herrings to begin with. Nonetheless, as we near June this should be watched closely.

As things stand now we are stowing oceanic heat content rather nicely as ambient cloud patterns "seem" to have been rather sparse during the last month. This maximizes solar insolation for lacking cloud-based albedo.

As to the season:
My belief is that the subtropical Atlantic will have greater than normal magnitude of ridging to some degree... This assessment is based on two basics assumptions. One being the Equitorial Pacific oceanic SSTs and the El Nino vs La Nina state; the other being some recent 45 day trends in the GLAAM.

Most people are aware of El Nino and La Nina. After spending the winter in an over-advertised weak-moderate warm ENSO phase, conditions began to cool in the Equitorial Pacific waters. Particularly closer to the South American Coast this is true. Dynamical based models at that time began really blowing a strong La Nina pattern horn to emerge during this current spring. That has not happened. Instead, although Nino numbers nearer to the S/A Coast are -1.8, they are barely 0.0 in most locations. The whole field is thus only modestly cool anomalous. Nevertheless, cool anomalous it is and if anything this should continue to evolve; although doing so at a slower pace than the already proven to be zealous dynamical model sets. La Nina times tend to mean a more favorable U/A pattern for the Gulf, Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin as a whole, for contributing weaker westerlies and a mean jet structure well north of these areas.

As to the the GLAAM, it may not be as well known. The acronym stands for GLobal Atmospheric Angular Momentum, a scalar measure of the integrated torque in the atmosphere. By torque we obviously mean tortionally, the larger scale wind structure of the westerlies. When the wind field has more N to S component, the torque is greater, and the subsequent result a greater measurement of GLAAM.

Since about early April the GLAAM has shifted below 0.0, which means, negative anomaly in the Globally intergrated torque in the atmosphere. This can be seen graphically at: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

What this means is that the atmosphere has had a tendency to be more zonal than meridional in the flow, or in other words, west to east. This west to east nature supports the warmer and stronger subtropical ridging as we get later in the summer.

The GLAAM can not outrightly be used as a prognostic tool, but it is still useful for a couple of reasons. One, it is useful as a potential corrective measure when evaluating in situ specific modeling behavior. The other is persistence. We note that going back along the last 90 days there really has been a bias for less meridional flows to verify. Looking at the top panel, we also note that the majority of the negative anomaly distribution has been in the Northern Hemisphere. This might carry some significance in the earlier part of the season, in the sense that as the westerlies continue along their seasonal migration north, should the GLAAM persist negative, this would mean less incursive westerlies into lower latitudes. As we know, a huge stumbling block for westward moving tropical waves are TUTT related (less troughing/less hostile environs). The trouble with using persistence however is that it only works so long as your persisting behavior continues to manifest. If there is big modal shift in the overall paradigm, the persistence based model will demonstrate an abrupt error. ...So, for that there is natively some risk in using this technique.

Summing all this up in simple terms:
The weak La Nina favors deep layer ridging in the Gulf, Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin;
Persistent background signal in the Northern Hemisphere suggests a potential for stronger than usual subtropical ridging, which will block potential incursive westerlies from digging to deeper latitudes where they can cause shearing environments.

The first of these two factors is the more widely studied. The second is suppositional, though certainly has its logic. There are other factors also to consider. Namely, SAL, or Saharan Air Layer. This is the milky film that can be seen in some high res satellite imagery of the central and eastern Atlantic. It has been statistically and to some extent physically shown to be a cumulus cloud type suppressor, thus, a tropical cyclone detriment. Last year there was a preponderance of this dust material from off the intra-continental areas of Africa - although it is not known outrightly if this had anything to do with the year as a whole drastically under-performing compared to earlier predictions.

We seem to be setting the table for the predictions for a more active than normal season to actually verify better this year.


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL 30.44N 86.62W
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #74939 - Mon May 21 2007 07:04 PM

As I was reading Tips post, I was saying to myself "What does weather technobabble really mean?". I appreciate the fact that after you layed the facts down, in a way that most users that have the science behind them, understand, you explained it in a way that us laypeople can understand.

That having being said, it looks like I will be visiting this site more this year, than I did last year. I look forward to the insights the more knowledgeable people have.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #74940 - Mon May 21 2007 07:57 PM

Quote:

I find it intriguing that most of the Global based numerical models have been tantilizing us with these Caribbean teasers since...really the beginning of March. I do not recall seeing this specific and rather peculiar behavior in the models persist as often during recent springs (going back to 2000 or so), as we are now. May not mean much more than an interesting artifice of the pattern we have been in; most of these have proven red herrings to begin with. Nonetheless, as we near June this should be watched closely.


edited for brevity~danielw

So your thoughts are we will have a stronger ridge this season that may drive systems westward?

Edited by danielw (Mon May 21 2007 11:41 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74942 - Mon May 21 2007 09:42 PM

So your thoughts are we will have a stronger ridge this season that may drive systems westward?

Yes that would be correct as to what I was discussing. Although, it should also be pointed out that having stronger ridging does not necessarily mean there won't be a recurve conduit because particulars regarding the planetary wave spacing (Long waves). If the stronger subtropical ridge in the means idea works out, however, it does slope that probability in favor of longer westerly trackers.

That aspect of the season is a ways off climatologically, though. For now we need to first focus on the western Caribbean up throught the Gulf and the waters surrounding Florida as we get into June/early July. It is interesting that the models have been spining up these suspicious entities in that region already - almost succeeding actually in getting one to verify as HankFrank pointed out.

We like to shy away from too much speculation here. It is safe to mention however that this kind of persistence in the modeling behavior suggests that they are picking up on some kind of numerical instability, though. That should be significant to warrant some interest as the climatology nears.

John

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 22 2007 09:58 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
overdevelopment tendency [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #74952 - Wed May 23 2007 09:31 AM

clark said something about the GFS being tweaked in early may, that might have something to do with it's recent habit of overdoing low pressure in the tropics.
as far as the seasonal stuff being discussed... looks like the southeast is dry and that the feedback will promote ridging, while it's been wetter than normal further west. there has also been a trend with troughs splitting near the east coast. still months from the meat of the season, but i'm pondering over what this type of pattern would inflict on westward moving tropical systems.
really hard to make a whole lot out of that for now, as there's still a decent subtropical jet ripping by the southern periphery of the area. zonal ridging does seem to rule the day, but things haven't made their way up to their summertime latitudes as of yet.
HF 1431z23may


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: overdevelopment tendency [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74953 - Wed May 23 2007 09:39 AM

I know here that several Tampa meterologists are hoping that their models that the High pressure ridge will break down and move out and allow the moisture in the Caribbean to move northward toward Florida and the southeast. Whether it be a broad area of low pressure or whatever, just get the rainy season started.

I know where I live we've had just .20" of rain since April 15 and that was after an inch fell on the 15th. So it has been very dry around here and that is obvious.


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Hootie Hoo
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Austin Tx
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #74957 - Wed May 23 2007 08:49 PM

I loved this post-I will probably most likely 'lurk' for a while-have been on this site for a couple of years now. I live in Texas and my opinion is that Floridians really have the knowledge and wisdom to write about what is happening in our atmospheres......I have learned so much from ya'll and I am so happy to be back for a new season. My hats off to all the scientists and weather-watchers here....thanks for sharing your expertise with us amateurs. You are helping keep people safe and informed-one post at a time. Keep safe everyone!
Respectfully
Hootie Hoo


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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet [Re: HanKFranK]
      #74974 - Fri May 25 2007 05:15 PM

Ridges and high pressure seem to be indicating a pretty quiet June as well. May not be much to watch for a while. 90E is drawing quite a bit of attention in the Pacific.

--------------------
"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."

2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5


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