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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: i think what's clear here is [Re: dem05]
      #74916 - Sat May 19 2007 01:36 PM Attachment (309 downloads)

I have attached a picture (To this post) of this mornings Quickscat Pass over the SW Carribean if anyone would like to have a look. Looks like a surface low is down there.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: i think what's clear here is [Re: dem05]
      #74917 - Sat May 19 2007 07:40 PM

I concur. A surface low - disturbance - is apparently brewing. This mornings Hi-Res QuikSCAT shows this off quite well. The mean wind speed appears to be running about 20 knots, but there were some vectors - most likely in thunderstorms and/or thunderstorm outflows - exceeding 40. There is some nice
upper-level divergence , and shear over this feature is generally running under 20 knots.

Worth watching, as it is in a favorable environment. CMC was gangbusters on this a day ago, wildly developing a hurricane out of there. Since then however, all models look to have backed down.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: i think what's clear here is [Re: cieldumort]
      #74941 - Mon May 21 2007 08:21 PM

Interesting stuff from TPC.....

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
APPARENT MOVEMENT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N80W TO 16N82W TO 10N82W WITH HINTS THAT A LOW MAY BE PRESENT
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE GFS DOES
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM. THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC ITCZ WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
REGARDLESS IF THIS DEVELOPS...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


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