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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch
      #74977 - Sat May 26 2007 04:06 AM

The GFS model and a few of the other models have been hinting at a possible Tropical system forming in the Western Caribbean. Hit and miss in the model runs for the last 7 days.

The Caribbean Forecast Discussion has been hinting at an Eastern Pacific system... possibly crossing Central America and moving into the Caribbean Sea.
Again, just an honorable mention in the discussions.

While I haven't checked the surface observations. The preliminary satellite observations would certainly suggest that minimal wind shear is present at 4 AM EDT-Saturday. (08Z)

This is an image that was posted on the morning of May 20th. A 216 hour forecast!



And this link displays the latest rainbow enhancement of the area.
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean

Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #74979 - Sat May 26 2007 10:16 AM

Ok, a quick check of visible imagery shows a low pressure area may be developing near 80W 13.2N. Additionally, the 06Z surface analysis shows a new low pressure area in this area. As for model support - well the 00Z run of the NOGAPS picked up on a developing low pressure system from 00Z this evening, lasting through Thursday and moving generally towards the northwest. It is kept as a marginal warm-core system, so a possible tropical cyclone. Given the abundant convective activty in he region, and the model hints recently, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on this area.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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dem05
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Rich B]
      #74982 - Sat May 26 2007 11:45 AM

The last 3 runs of the NAM have been pretty consistent and fairly robust too...

00Z Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
06Z Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
12Z Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

This might get a little interesting...


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Clark
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #74985 - Sat May 26 2007 12:32 PM

Models are pretty consistent in terms of *something* down that way and truthfully have been for a few days now. As HF might point out, it fits the Joe Bastardi test of lower pressures across the region. The MJO (upper level wind fields) are somewhat favorable for this time of year as well from the perspective of getting deep convective development. What is there now is sorta in a "bubble" region, i.e. if it goes too far in any direction it either hits less favorable winds or land.

I do urge a little caution with this, however, in particular if the GFS is used with respect to any developments down there. At the start of May, some changes were made to the GFS to hopefully improve its prediction with the formation and intensification (representation) of tropical systems. Unfortunately, it appears that these changes have gone too far and have returned the model to the days of the late 1990s where *everything* coming off of Africa became a tropical system. (Anyone else remember those days? ) Skill scores for the model in the 5-10 day time period, a measure of how well the model verifies, have dropped dramatically since the new GFS code was implemented -- partially due to negative feedbacks from the tropics, I feel.

That said -- there is some support for this in the actual observations and from the other models, so it bears watching. Yesterday's 12Z and today's 00Z runs of the European model seem to want to feed this energy into the Gulf of Mexico in 6 days' time or so and then into Florida and the southeast as a rain storm associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure. It's a setup more common of February-March than early June, but it's also a setup that can help bust a drought...and one that if there is something tropical out there beforehand could be a more significant event. Tropical or not, it all bears watching over the next week.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Quick Update [Re: Clark]
      #74990 - Sat May 26 2007 02:33 PM

Several of todays Discussions are mentioning the area in the Western Cariibean.
Latest Trop Weather Discussion also.
Extended outlook for the week ahead from HPC here:
Extended Outlook Wednesday thru Saturday

Visible satellite imagery indicates a broad area of Low pressure from W Cuba toward the Isthmus of Panama.
GHCC MSFC NASA Satellite site for Caribbean

241pm EDT
Appears to be a mid to upper level Low forming just North of the Bay of Campeche. Along 22N/ 95W.
GHCC Visible satellite site with zoom

Edited by danielw (Sat May 26 2007 02:43 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #74992 - Sat May 26 2007 05:54 PM

Coming in a little late to just to add that SSD now has Floater 3 up over "Invest" located near 12.5N 78W.

Broad circulation evident in that moderate to low-moderate shear environment, with some pretty decent low-level convergence taking place into a particularly healthy convective cluster at the center of a vortice (12.5N 78W).



Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 30 2007 07:31 PM)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #74993 - Sat May 26 2007 06:11 PM

IMHO things are about to get very interesting for Florida. I touched upon it in my afternoon AFD, but I have a little time to expand on these thoughts, so here goes.

First thing to mention is that the pressures are usually fairly low in the western Caribbean, and today is no exception. I noticed some buoy/ship ops around 1010MB in that general area. Second, there are two well defined vortices in the CU field noticeable on vis imagery. The first is east of the Yucatan (18N 87W) and the second is east of Nicaragua (12.5n 80W). The one east of Nicaragua looks a little tigher and has more in the way of convection near the center, plus a huge slug of deep tropical moisture/convection to it's east.

(better to view the link below if you have broadband and a large monitor, or simply change the height/width to 600/600)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...p;mapcolor=gray

What gets really interesting is the change in the synoptic pattern over the GOMEX over the next several days. If you'll allow me to cannibalize my own AFD...

XTD...AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE IN THE PAST...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECM AT H50...W/R/T BOTH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...H50 HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE GOMEX FROM MID WEEK ONWARD...WHICH MAY BE A HARBINGER OF SOME FAIRLY DECENT CHCS FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

and...

MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD/HIGH COVERAGE RAIN EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO JUNE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GOMEX BY BOTH THE 00Z ECM AND 12Z GFS. ECM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH BOTH THE H50 TROUGH...AND THE SURFACE RESPONSE...HOWEVER BOTH SOLNS SHOW ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO ALLOW DEEP LYR FLOW TO ACQUIRE SIGNIF SRLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO FL. BY FRI/SAT...THE ECM SHOWS A MORE CUTOFF/SLOWER SOLN...WHILE THE GFS LINKS THIS WEAKNESS UP WITH THE NRN STREAM...CREATING A BROADER MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE GFS HAS OFTEN FOLLOWED THE ECM`S LEAD WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN...AND IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT BTWN THE TWO...THOUGH IT STILL IS IN THE DAY 4+ TIME FRAME. SO CAN`T
BITE OFF ON THESE SOLNS UNTIL CONTINUITY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED. FOR NOW HAVE GONE JUST A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR POPS THU...AND KEPT SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR FRI/SAT.

Adding onto that is the fact that the 12Z ECM continued to be much stronger at H50 and with the surface low coming up out of the Caribbean.

So, we have
(1) low pressure in the area
(2) a fairly healthy low level vortex already down there sitting and spinning
(3) a loose model consensus for "something" to form from the ECM/UKM and GFS (in spite of the return of it's horrible convective feedback problem and resultant low spin-up-o-rama)

This is where it gets interesting. Significant height falls at 500 MB will occur over the western GOMEX and gulf coast starting TUE, and responsible trough will work eastward toward Florida from mid to late next week.

Going back to my AFD, The ECM is deeper, so much that it looks like it's weakly cutoff at 500MB. The surface evolution looks a little strange in that the 500MB low actually captures the surface system coming out of the Caribbean. We wind up with a 1001MB low getting propelled northward into the FL panhandle.

On the other hand, the GFS takes the distinct southern stream 500MB feature eastward, but it gets captured and absorbed into the base of the northern stream trough, making it nearly full latitude. It's surface low, which looks like it's from convective feedback, forms farther east and turns more quicky across extreme SE Florida and then out to sea.

I have no strong opinion on which model to favor at this point, other than noting as I did in my AFD that the GFS has been following the ECM's lead up until now. I think there will be quite a bit of interest for Florida folks over the next several days.

Tony C.

edit: On more note - It's still only may and the ST Jet will stay pretty strong between 25 and 30N. That would argue for something not purely tropical, or a system morphing into a "sloppy, right-sided, hybrid, baroclincally enhanced thingamajiggy" (for lack of a better term)


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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #74994 - Sat May 26 2007 06:19 PM

I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE FROM ALL THOSE MODELS IS RAIN FOR FLORIDA!

Probably true but lets refrain from one-line posting in this Forum. Thanks

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat May 26 2007 06:22 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #74998 - Sat May 26 2007 11:41 PM

Things look pretty interesting for late May down in the Southwest Caribbean...looks like a mid-level circulation has spun up with intermittent deep convection in place; QuikSCAT from yesterday evening even hinted at a weak low level circulation underneath the mid-level feature and the convection. Nice evacuation channel at upper levels into the central Atlantic in association with a weak upper low near the Bahamas and a trough to its northeast. Probably our next "invest" -- NHC's satellite page hints at that already on floater 3, in fact -- over the next day or so.

Most of the models hint at something heading in a general NW fashion over the next 3-5 days or so into the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, with the NAM and the ECMWF being the most bullish at this point. The projected weather patten into late next week is of a trough digging into the eastern United States; if that pans out, the system will generally want to head north and ultimately northeast. How fast something organizes down there -- if it does at all -- will help decide where it ultimately goes and potentially how fast it recurves. People in Florida and inland Georgia should watch this over the next few days, as even if nothing tropical organizes...it looks like it could bring some much needed rains.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LoisCane
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i see it Clark but... [Re: Clark]
      #75001 - Sun May 27 2007 08:17 AM

it's having a hard time down there maintaining its color ... hints of something happening but nothing yet. Thanks for the loop. Maybe tomorrow... shear still needs to soften a bit. Looks better than yesterday, has a twist but the color keeps getting blown away

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Re: i see it Clark but... [Re: LoisCane]
      #75002 - Sun May 27 2007 08:57 AM

Morning everyone..
Got to make this quick cause I have church soon..
Here's what could and based on past experiences, what I believe will happen with what should of been 92L yesterday.
Everyone on wundergound blogs say it's weakening but little do they know that the same thing happened with Alberto before he blew up last year. It's going through a structual phase. It's trying take shape of a storm and convection is usually little when that happens. It could blow up at any tie now, probably most likely this afternoon. By tommorrow, TD2 may be brewing. CMC model scares folks in the Caolinas with a surprise Hurricane Barry in 144 hours. Lets not forget it was this model that was right on with Alberto. So lets wait and see before we make any death threats on this disturbance

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75008 - Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM

A quick comment or two on the model outputs this Sunday morning...

As Clark was discussing and I concur; the GFS has been a bit zealous in spinning up any perturbation it can sniff out, into a meaningful tropical system this spring.

However, the Day 6 onward is interesting in the 12Z ECM. The MSLP charts indicate an inverted V in the surface pressure pattern, with strong hints at cyclonic closure passing across the Panhandle of Florida by the end of Day 6. This offers some support to the prior GFS outputs.

Interesting to note that the 12Z run has lost the signal for these days. The UKMET and Canadian models look more similar to the ECM so this particular GFS run appears to be an outlier... Note, the Canadian actually goes ahead develops the Atlantic season's first TC...eventually just NE of FL. The overall consensus is a little more interesting than this day's 12Z GFS solution.

The deep layer shear appears to be favorable during that time period, as fairly strong antecedent ridging evolves and slowly progresses through 35N/80W, D3 - D6. That places the area of the Gulf and western Caribbean typically in a deeper layer easterly flow regime, while dropping the upper atmosphere wind velocities across these areas to light. Moreover, the trend has been to slow down the entire pattern evolution at these key latitudes, so that also somewhat prolongs this period of favorable deep layer winds, giving more time for whatever to evolve to go ahead and do so.. Because convection has had a propensity in recent days to linger and refire in that region of the western Caribbean, the establishment of any favorable governing pattern does warrant increased monitoring.

Without considering a more important intensification taking place, this all could go quite far toward adjusting the season rainfall deficits in the positive direction, going from famine to feast. This can bring a tremendous dose of obsenely high precipitable water values. ...So perhaps this would all be a good thing.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun May 27 2007 03:21 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75011 - Sun May 27 2007 06:07 PM

Quote:

A quick comment or two on the model outputs this Sunday morning...

As Clark was discussing and I concur; the GFS has been a bit zealous in spinning up any perturbation it can sniff out, into a meaningful tropical system this spring.

Zealous? It's been like Superman on steroids trying to save the world

I think it can happen, but as a rainmaker or as a defined named system?

If other models jump on board .... if

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: LoisCane]
      #75015 - Sun May 27 2007 11:30 PM


They have, the models that is... come around to the "if". That was some of my point. The Canadian, UKMET and ECM have all formed some form of cyclonic tropical characteristic entity impacting Florida to some degree or another.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75017 - Mon May 28 2007 05:18 AM

Indeed, model support is increasing for a system moving through the Yucatan Channel, then recurving into the Florida big bend area around the end of this week. The CMC is most bullish, taking quite an intense system into the big bend / panhandle on Friday, then keeping it inland and weakening. The UKMET model takes a broader, and somewhat weaker system across the central Florida west coast, moves it offshore near the FL / GA border, where it rapidly deepens before skirting the SC / NC coast. Again, the Florida landfall is around Friday, with the system affecting the Carolinas late this coming weekend. The GFS doesnt seem to give much support for either solution though at the moment!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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allan
Weather Master


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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Rich B]
      #75021 - Mon May 28 2007 01:14 PM

The Carribean disturbance looks better this afternoon. A flare up is now in process over the "new" center which looks to be well east and a bit north of the old one. Since it's seperated from the upper level low now, I think we need to really keep an eye out for Barry sometime in a couple of days as it continues to brew out in over 80 degree temps and very low shear. The 12Z CMC predicts it to develop in the GOM and head to the panhandal of Florida. haven't seen the 12Z UKMET. Whats also interetsing is now the CMC develops another cyclone "Chantal" in the awake of "Barry" if you go by the run. So lets wait and see what happens, if a blow up occurs, it would be in the right part of the new center where storms are currently flaring.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: allan]
      #75022 - Mon May 28 2007 01:40 PM

I think thats unlikely to happen more bluff from the CMC.I think barry will wait to the end of june or the begining of july.Also the trof in the central atlantic is creating unfavorable conditions over tha area at the moment.Dont expect that to change for now.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75023 - Mon May 28 2007 01:49 PM

I tend to disagree, conditions in the western carribean are favorable for development. Just got to give it some time. If this disturbance didn't have potential, it would have been gone by now. It really is trying to get itself going. I see a good defined circulation with strong convection, small but it is there. Also, there is no way we are going to get Barry that late according to the current pattern. By July, we MAY be watching Dean or Erin.. really depends how bad this season wnats to get lol. I still stand on my prediction for 18/9/6.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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scottsvb
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: allan]
      #75024 - Mon May 28 2007 02:28 PM

Well Tony the other day said probably what will happen as he is also a Met. I think right now the CMC is its usual self on being too agressive with tropical systems. The GFS goes downhill after 120hrs out...afterall (look above) on the 216hrs out..the GFS said there should be a strong 1001mb low entering the SE Gulf tonight..but its wayyy off. NOGAPS tends not to pick up on everything at first..and the UKMet is usually alittle off base at times. Overall in the short term I like to use the GFS with the ECMWF for days 5-6.

Currently we have a weak low in the sw carribean. A trough is just south of jamaica with vort maxs spinning up as the trough iteracts still with the departing upper low to its N and the landmass backoff of Jamaica. I'm not sold on this being the main feature that the CMC is seeing. Its energy will combine with lower pressure from the pacific. In 36-48hrs a upper trough or cut off low will develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Energy from the trough in the NW carribean along with moisture from the EPAC will converge by Thurs-Fri near the Yucitan. With the upper trough digging in late in the week into the weekend..mositure or a low could form and head N or NE..

If anything I would be watching the low in the far E pac.


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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #75028 - Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM

Scott, your comments are not unreasonable. Based on my best "eyeball" of the satellite of the SW Carrib. this afternoon, there is a weak surface vorticity around 14N,79W and a weak mid level around 15N, 77.5W. Overall shear is not bad in the area and the surface and mid level features are approaching each other this afternoon. It would be interesting to see what would happen if these two features can "stack" under this lower shear environment.

A lot of us disagree with JB at Accu on many things, but one thing I learned 4 or 5 years ago from his streaming videos...and has played out well, is that a cut-off low or trough that is west of 90W in the Gulf/Texas region can really bode well for a low pressure system to develop/strengthen in the NW Carribean and Eastern Gulf. In the coming days, it will be interesting to see the timing. In the meantime, this area of weather has an opportunity to compose itself over the next few days under a lower shear environment.

As for the moisture tap that may give this "area" some extra needed punch over the next few days, I prefer to look downstream at Northern South America. If a couple good impulses could come along the ITCZ from South America and pile upon this "area", then it has a better shot. Looking at past systems to develop, I give that opportunity a higher percentage than the opportunity of something breaking free fromthe ITCZ on the Pacific side and coming north. With that said, if you are hopeing for some good impulses coming in from South America, I've seen much better circumstances and I don't see anything overly eye popping down there now though.

As for the models, I will repeat something that has been said here before, they are difficult to deal with when it comes to early season development/cyclogenesis in the tropics. Also, they sometimes miss a beat when it comes to picking up on a developing system. In past seasons, I have seen the models develop a nasty hurricane that never ended up happening. Likewise, I've seen systems develop when the models gave no indication.It is that time of year, and if you are strongly leaning on the models providing a strong consensus/solution...thatmaybe a mistake. As a hobbiest, I highly rely on my synoptic skill at this time of year. With that said, I will only give this a one and three shot at developing at thistime. In three days, I'll look at the vapor images, look at the overall structure of what may/maynot exist, and look at what is coming down the pike as far as trough development over the CONUS and MX. Based on that, the odds may go up or down.

I hope everyone is having a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day, please don't forget to take a moment to reflect on our guys and gals who are serving and have served our county to protect the freedoms and liberties we enjoy on a day to day basis. I'm deeply greatful to all generations that have served our county. If this includes you, I honor you and I deeply thank you.


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