scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Models picking up on a system..possibly tropical in the SE gulf of Mexico by Fri-Sat....
Well its still not clear but the models are slowly converging on something now. The now shows a 1005mb low crossing SW florida on Saturday. Along with the .... this is also alined with the . and UKMet have it more N towards the Panhandle. Even the is picking up on a 1004-1006mb low Friday night nearing SW florida. (check the 18Z EPAC system).
All in all its not clear..0z runs will tell some more..and consistancy till the low develops will give us a idea if its organized or if anything develops at all. In 24hrs or so..we will have a better idea.
Low is currently near 14.6N and 78.5W and moving WNW towards the Nic-Hond boarder by later Tuesday.. then as a upper trough-cutoff low develop over the N GOM on Weds-Sat moisture will feed into the system from the EPAC and pull anything down there N towards the SE GOM by Friday.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Jim Syoen on channel 2 from Ft. Myers (today's his last day! *sob! cry!*) was talking about it this morning too. And he's never been a wave-mongerer type of weatherman. He said to watch the area towards the end of the week because models are starting to mention this.
We are DESPERATE for a nice wet tropical depression or low level TS to just SIT right over us. We're over 600 in drought numbers here in Charlotte.
Now, will the area over LA/TX drift east to the Panhandle?
And is the area the models are picking up on the stuff over the Yucatan peninsula right now?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Ok. Todays take on the SW Carib system so far...
It is still getting model support with a weak and quite broad system set to move across the Yucatan, or through the Yucatan Channel. Some models develop quite an intense system and take into the FL big bend (CMC) while others (UKMET) take a still weak system across the Big Bend but develop it off the GA / SC coast. takes a developing system just to the SE of the Keys and develops it off the east FL coast. General time frame for Florida impacts is late Friday. Now, a browse of the latest visible loops from GHCC show that there is a circulation - albeit small and relatively ill defined - centred about 15'N, 80'W, moving west or just north of due west. Convective activity has been almost non-existant, but has now begun to develop and increase just to the NE of the circulation. Could this be the start of what the models have been suggesting? Maybe, or maybe not 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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First time posting on this site. I have been fascinated by the wealth of knowledge I have gained reading your comments.
Anyways, back to the Caribbean. Throughout the day, I have noticed some increased convention developing to the north of what appears to be some type of circulation. Living in South Florida, this is great news to see this moisture and convection likely being drawn up north. Lake Okeechobee will reportedly hit an all-time low today or tomorrow. Some amazing stuff.
Just hoping this models are right and we do have a developing system taking aim on drought and fire ravaged Florida.
(off-topic material removed - a reminder that this is not a Chat Room site)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 30 2007 10:17 AM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Dont see much down there just scattered convection in different areas.The model hype continues but no real true signs of development takeing shape as of yet.
Edited by Hurricane29 (Tue May 29 2007 01:36 PM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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The local mets in Tampa are taking note of a possible system by the weekend. As so many of us have noted, the is unduly aggressive with this system, and it seems like they are discounting it, or at least not putting as much emphasis on that particular model.
My question though is with temps in the Gulf being what they are, why would this system be considered cold core?
SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN GULF TO YUCATAN PEN AND GETS PUSHED ENEWARD
WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE FL PENINSULA...THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE COLD
CORE NON TROPICAL TYPE SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE OVERRUNNING RAIN SHIELD
APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI AHEAD OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH BULK
OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY SAT. APPEARS TO HAVE
ITS USUAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH THESE GULF LOW/COLD FRONT
SYSTEMS...SO ITS RAINFALL TOTALS WHILE MUCH NEEDED LOOK OVERDONE.
PRECIP COVERAGE LOCATION CONCERNS...CANADIAN MODEL FURTHEST N WITH
MOST PRECIP OVER N FL WHILE /NOGAPS FURTHEST S ONLY OVER S FL
PENINSULA WHILE THE AND DGEX BRING RAIN SHIELD FROM THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA TO THE FL STRAITS.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Excerpt from the Afternoon AFD from NWS Melbourne,FL. A bit long for a post but very informative.
VIRTUALLY EVERY AVBL MODEL(NAM/GFS/UKM/ECM/CMC/NGP) AND EVEN SOME
OF LESSER KNOWN ONES (JMA/KMA-GDAPS) SHOW A DISCRETE LOW PRES SYSTEM GRADUALLY SPINNING UP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THEN TURNING N/NEWD AND MOVING ACROSS FL OR VERY NEARLY SO...WITH THE SAT DAYTIME PD...GIVE OR TAKE A BIT...BEING THE BROAD CONSENSUS ON TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SENSIBLE WX.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS LOOSE CONSENSUS...AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS NOW GETTING INTO THE DAY 3 TO 4 FCST TIME FRAME...CAVEATS STILL ABOUND.
NOTWITHSTANDING THE PREVIOUS MODEL "FALSE ALARMS"...THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BETWEEN THE MODELS - ENOUGH SO TO REMAIN WARY OF COMPLETELY BUYING INTO A HIGH POP/QPF EVENT FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
CWA. FOR INSTANCE...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (ECM/NGP/GFS) STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH/EAST SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP MISSES ECFL...ALBEIT NOT BY MUCH. OTHERS (UKM/CMC/JMA...WITH THE H84 NAM
HINTING AS SUCH) BRING THE LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX TO GIVE THE CTRL PENINSULA HIGH POPS/DECENT .
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&version=1&max=61
(QPF is roughly the quantitative precipitation forecast... the amount of rain that will fall over X amount of time)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of 0800Z , 4 AM EDT, this morning. A medium sized MCS has moved offshore of Cancun and Cozumel,MX.
Short life span on the satellite loops is indicating a small convective tower in or near the center. And it appears to be making an attempt at establishing inflow on the Eastern side. Based on IR imagery.
Surface circulation appears to be just off the Middle to NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Again with a short loop duration it's slightly hard to see a circular pattern in the images.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Been watching. Wish to add to what Daniel just said, that while it is still dark one might have an easier time making out the LLC which does appear to be present off the tip of the Yucatan using the Night IR , and zooming in on the feature.
It is worth noting that this is not the area favored by the models which were brewing something a bit further south of here and then moving it up either across or very near Florida. It is also worth keeping in mind that shear is still quite high in this region, although it has been trending down over the past day or so. (CIMSS Shear Analysis)
Also possibly complicating things for any would-be tropical cyclones, TD2E is rather close to this part of the Caribbean and GOM, as is another surface low which seems to have formed to 2E's southeast, inland near El Salvador. Not only does this leave three areas of low pressure competing for fuel sources and dominance in the region, but killer outflows can blow out of the associated thunderstorms, and snuff out any incipient disturbance.
Having qualified with all of that, shears have been coming down some while things have kept bubbling for several days now.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Thanks for that link!
Just a snippet from our local NWS disco this morning....
...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO THE DRY AIR THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF
THE LATTER PART OF MAY...AND SUMMERLIKE HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. POSSIBILITY
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SINCE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WOULD BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. BUT AGAIN...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...WOULD EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT WARM MUGGY
AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0
Sure hope they are right and we get the much needed rain. They are currently showing a 70% chance for us on Saturday. Can't say I care much for the wording "storm system" though.
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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I looked at the IR link when I woke up this morning and saw a well-formed area of convection that even appeared to have developed a COC during the night. Now four hours later I check the link again and see a big difference...seems to me this area is being sheared dramatically, and if this continues the significant rain event we need and were hoping for in west central Florida this weekend may be more of a non-event. Am I seeing this apparent shear correctly, and if so, any thoughts on what it means to drought relief here this weekend?
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Morning everyone,
nice blowup on the ULL this morning again.. though this time, it could stick for a while as the storm that models are forcasting is now starting to develop. does an Alberto type system and head it just north of tampa as a strong TS or cat. 1 Hurricane according to the pressures. UKMET has a weak/moderate storm crossing central Florida then becomes a strong TS moving up the east coast. finally recongizes storm development instead of just moisture and has it in the Gulf pointing towards Florida. has a fairly weak system 35-40 mph hitting right around where hit and then strengthens it to a stronger storm going up the east coast.
.. Anyways.. looking at the model runs, there are about 3 scenarios in my case.
1. Storm developes rapidly into a strong TS and hits Florida hrd with heavy rain with winds from 50-65 mph.
2. Storm developes slowly and hits Florida with heavy rain yet winds are 35-45 mph., then becomes a stronger TS as it gets into the Gulf Stream with winds increasing to 50-60 mph.
3. The storm develops but as a non-tropical system and Florida just gets alot of rain with some gusty winds.
.. So which scenario do you think will play out?
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Wed May 30 2007 10:01 AM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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This is what Accuweather has to say about the developing low....I agree with there outlook.
AccuWeather.com is forecasting an active tropical season, and although Friday is only the first official day of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we might already have something to watch. A tropical low will be developing over the northwest Caribbean over the next two days, and upper-level winds will help to pull this storm northward. While it is unlikely that this will become a strong tropical system, it will have to be monitored for development. There is a good chance that much of the Florida peninsula will receive significant rainfall from this system, and there are indications that it may reach northward into Georgia and the Carolinas. After several months of abnormally dry weather, any rainfall is welcome, and a big rainmaker like this would be a blessing.
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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I took a look at the latest forecast models and the seems to indicate a TS or Cat 1 hurricane for Florida this weekend. Very interesting! Either way, Florida will finally recieved a gift from God in the form of a tropical soaker over the weekend.
B.T.W. Has anyone noticed the rain over the Sahara over the past few weeks and Moscow reaching highs in the 90's for six consecutive days? Remarkable developments! Does this mean there will be less Saharan dust?
(off-topic material was removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 30 2007 10:06 AM)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Piece of discussion from HPC earlier this morning...
WITH EVOLVING SFC LOW PRESSURE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... PREFER LEANING TOWARD THE UKMET/12Z /00Z -GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... OR LACKING THOSE OPTIONS... A WEAKER VERSION OF THE NAM.
TYPICALLY PREMATURE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL LATITUDES FAVORS DISCOUNTING THE CANADIAN GLBL WHICH BRINGS A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW INTO NERN FL BY EARLY SAT. THE IS THE NEXT FASTEST MODEL WITH A TRACK MUCH FARTHER WSW OF THE CANADIAN GLBL.
THE IS LIKELY TOO DEEP BASED ON ITS HISTORY OF LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEMS FROM LAST YEAR... THOUGH ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION AND INTERMEDIATE SFC LOW TRACK ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET/12Z . EVOLUTION THAT CONSOLIDATES ENERGY FROM CNTRL AMERICA AND VICINITY AND EVOLUTION USING ENERGY INITIALLY OVER/NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE BOTH LOW CONFIDENCE FCSTS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF A CURRENT WELL DEFINED FEATURE OVER THE ORIGINATING REGION IN SATL IMAGERY AND APPEARANCE OF FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL PATTERN. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
DOES FAVOR INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE AND SOME GRADUAL LOWERING OF SFC PRESSURES OVER THE SERN GULF/FL LATER IN THE PERIOD THOUGH. ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS MAKE THE UKMET/12Z /00Z -GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN THE BEST OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.
Edited by danielw (Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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NHC Floater 2 is now on this area... being called Invest.
Convection is flaring quite nicely this a.m.
Something to Watch
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
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I think could be our first "tropical" player of the sason. The has a well defined storm off the coast of W Florida 72 hrs from now. I don't think this would be a very big storm though, if one forms at all. It may be a carbon copy of Alberto from last year. Just keeping an eye on this is all we can do for now.
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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The radar out of Florida is now picking up some of the "Invest". Looks like a big soaker is finally coming to South Florida. Intellicast Radar
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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I'm looking at the floater, where is the potential LLC? To me it looks like it's around 23N/87W -- is that right? Am I looking at that right?
*please oh please oh please bring rain!!*
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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nope..that is a mid level inpulse from the T-storm complex that went out over Yucitan Channel last night.
The center of circulation is forming around 16N and 86W just north of honduras...its weak elongated near 1010mb but pressures are falling and will continue.
Strength of this and movement is still up in the air. Models on the 12Z runs are all over the place...The has been flip-floping from the Central GOM to now leaving central and northern florida dry and only S Florida receiving rains. I feel as of right now..this is a outliner....but lets see what the 0z runs tonight show.
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