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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: New Area to Watch ??? [Re: scottsvb]
      #75066 - Wed May 30 2007 01:35 PM

I doupt anything more significant then some good tropical moisture for florida will come out of this as shear values presently are running at 30-50kts of windshear across the gulf.Unfortunately much more rain will be needed in the lake before things begin to improve.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: New Area to Watch ??? [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75067 - Wed May 30 2007 01:51 PM

Probably right... question everyone wants to know is strength of the low and where it goes...if it remains weak and does what the 12Z GFS says...then central and N florida will get no relief for the drought and fires.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75068 - Wed May 30 2007 01:59 PM

The latest 12Z CMC model really blows up the low pressure in the western carribean. Looks like it takes it to a CAT 1 Hurricane prior to landfall in the Big Bend region of FL. The 12Z UKMET is considerably weaker while bringing a broad low across north-central FL. 12Z NAM indicates a slower motion toward the Big Bend at tropical storm strength (1004 mb). Looks like the system will be a hybrid (sub-tropical) with most of the wind and weather on the east side.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

--------------------
RJB

Edited by danielw (Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: New Area to Watch ??? [Re: scottsvb]
      #75069 - Wed May 30 2007 02:11 PM

Quote:

nope..that is a mid level inpulse from the T-storm complex that went out over Yucitan Channel last night.

The center of circulation is forming around 16N and 86W just north of honduras...its weak elongated near 1010mb but pressures are falling and will continue.





Okay, I see where you're pointing that out. But that looks like it's trying to spin clockwise. Or am I looking at that wrong? Does that mean it has less of a chance of developing?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75070 - Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM

Looks like a broad surface low exists near 17N-86W , just off the north coast of Honduras. The models indicate that this low will slowly drift north to the north coast of the Yucatan in 36-48 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

--------------------
RJB


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: New Area to Watch ??? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75071 - Wed May 30 2007 02:15 PM

I see no clockwise circulation...probably the high clouds you see.

Anyways center is weak and elongated around 16.5N and 86W.... on a side note there is a weak low in the BOC but I expect that to weaken as the caribbean system takes shape. Still alot of questions with this system.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75072 - Wed May 30 2007 02:17 PM

Quote:

Looks like a broad surface low exists near 17N-86W , just off the north coast of Honduras. The models indicate that this low will slowly drift north to the north coast of the Yucatan in 36-48 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html




If it moves into the gulf it will run into unfavorable upper level winds meaning 30-50kt windshear.

Steering winds will most likely keep this a southeast event.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75073 - Wed May 30 2007 02:29 PM

Actually 29 with the system moving intangent with the upperlevel winds...shear wont be too bad...also there is more ridging S-N. Overall there will be some shear.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #75074 - Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM

"Thursday night-Sat...significant change in the pattern is expected as the
ridge in the western Atlantic breaks down Thursday night-Fri.
Meanwhile...broad cyclonic flow in the western Gulf will draw
tropical moisture northward towards the state...ultimately resulting
in increasing rain changes late this week and early this weekend.
NAM-WRF suggests an area of low pressure north of the Yucatan will
lift northward through the Gulf...which would produce beneficial
rainfall across the forecast area. However...recent trends in the
GFS indicate that a track further to the south and east is more
likely. This would keep the deep tropical moisture to our
south...with only scattered shower activity Friday and Sat as a wave of
low pressure tracks across the southern peninsula. It would not be
fair to totally rule out a wetter solution at this point as depicted
by HPC and the European model (ecmwf)...which takes the low across The Big Bend and
northeastward up the southeast coast. Given the anomalous nature of
the pattern along with the fact that the event is still a few days
out...plan at this point is to only nudge probability of precipitation up slightly from
previous forecast."...........

(I'll repeat this request one more time: If you quote an official source, please STATE THE SOURCE in your post. In this case I believe its the NWS MLB Forecast Discussion bulletin.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 30 2007 07:21 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75075 - Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM

Latest 12Z Euro takes a moderate tropical storm into the Big Bend region of FL on Sunday morning. If this pans out, the entire peninsula should see some extremely beneficial rains and possibly tropical storm force winds at least over the west side of the peninsula.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2007053012!!/

--------------------
RJB


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75076 - Wed May 30 2007 04:47 PM

The NHC's TWD issued at 2:05 p.m. today seems to buy the GFS representation of the system remaing a surface trough which will pull out generally to the NE...
We just need that to at least drift far enough north to get rain into the peninsula...
They represented that the amplitudes were off the surface and several cyclonic non surface rotations were apparent south of 25N and along 87W.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: doug]
      #75077 - Wed May 30 2007 04:55 PM

I see a good but dis-organized circulation next to the Yucatan on the bottom of all that moisture. I also see banding features starting up on the fringes of the storm. Surprised myself that it's not mentioned on NRL yet. Probabaly gonna tag it if it persists or gets better organized through the evening. I'm gonna see what my local news says about it in a few minutes and i'll let you know what good old Tom Sorrels says. I think Barry is going to be on the way in a few days. When I saw the CMC, my jaw literally dropped LOL.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: allan]
      #75078 - Wed May 30 2007 05:18 PM

Quote:

I see a good but dis-organized circulation next to the Yucatan on the bottom of all that moisture. I also see banding features starting up on the fringes of the storm. Surprised myself that it's not mentioned on NRL yet. Probabaly gonna tag it if it persists or gets better organized through the evening. I'm gonna see what my local news says about it in a few minutes and i'll let you know what good old Tom Sorrels says. I think Barry is going to be on the way in a few days. When I saw the CMC, my jaw literally dropped LOL.




Nothing on the surface at this point.

If LLC is going to form, it will need to pop up somewhere where it can take advantage of the upper level winds and use it as an outflow channel, rather than be torn apart by same said winds.

The current best place for a LLC to form is around 20N 85W. Should something spin up there, the system might have time to do something interesting.

As it is, the models are currently over reacting, and until things start to spin up, there's no need to hope/worry.

Florida and south Georgia needs the rain, so keep your fingers crossed something gets some moisture and rain up there and not more wind. which would be really bad.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75079 - Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM



The consensus is that if something does evolve in the vicinity of the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf it would be subtropical and nature. Looking at the regional synoptics this afternoon and balancing those observations against the majority Global model outlooks I would have to agree, and assert that hybrid is unavoidable unless certain parameters change.

Currently there is clearly a trough defined by cyclone large scale motion from off Old Mexico/TX, curving toward the NE over the Gulf. Winds in the mid and upper levels in this band of westerlies are humming along at some 40kts, and even 50kts in some soundings.

The Global models show only increasing tendencies for troughing in the region over the next few days, as the entire domain of N/A goes through a period of amplification. Later on...after Day 5 or perhaps 6, that period of amplification may very well wane into more zonal character, as the larger scale hemispheric teleconnectors are also suggesting (Elevating NAO/AO contracting the westerlies more polarward). But, our system of interest, whatever becomes of it, will be by the boards.

With this kind of synoptic evolution in the deep layer winds, this will be a shear system. The heavier QPF will be NE of whatever center defines. The best hope for this to develop further, given the described regime, is for it to smartly begin moving along with the flow, such that storm relative shear reduces the impact of the westerlies. Because there will be a trough, any cyclonic development will entrain backside drier continental air and probably some deeper layer dynamics more akin to baroclinic storm development, so there is less likelihood of this being of purer tropical form if it ever gets going.

As a side note: Nevertheless...we are greatful for whatever water is received in southern Florida. Lake Okee. has set a record this day for the lowest ever recorded lake level. Normal is 13 feet. It is now under 9! This is a big, big problem for the 10 million citizens that depend on it for their fresh water source. Let along the damage to the surrounding Everglades habitat.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75081 - Wed May 30 2007 06:32 PM

Seems like the floater has been moved to the sw towards the covection to the south of cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Edited by danielw (Wed May 30 2007 10:16 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: danielw]
      #75083 - Wed May 30 2007 07:25 PM

Pressure dropping at buoy 42056 with east winds 20-25 kts. Pressure also falling at buoy 42057 - now at 29.81 in.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E

--------------------
RJB


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75084 - Wed May 30 2007 07:33 PM

Broad area of low pressure w/o much convection evident near 17N-86W. Shear looks a little high but it is forecast to relax in this area east of Belieze and north of Honduras. Look for convection to increase in this location over the next 24 hours for possible tropical cyclone development.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

--------------------
RJB


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
A Couple of Notes [Re: danielw]
      #75085 - Wed May 30 2007 07:43 PM

From the description for the 2007 News Talkback:
"you can only reply to the topics covered in existing main page articles."

Please place any comments on the Florida drought in the existing thread in the Other Weather Events forum rather than this Main Page thread.

When placing a quote from an official source in your post, please include the source of the material.
ED


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: A Couple of Notes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75087 - Wed May 30 2007 08:28 PM

Well it looks very disorganized now.. evening weakenings could lead to morning strengthening. So it's deffinatly a wait and see situation. Maybe a blow up tonight, then again maybe not. I hear shear is expected to relax tommorrow to allow some organization in this area of disturbed weather. Kind of figured I see this tonight and now i'm figuring i'll see a nice blow up tommorrow morning.. can't wait for the 00Z runs later tonight... bound to see what the CMC has in store LOL

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed May 30 2007 08:29 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
incipient system? [Re: allan]
      #75093 - Wed May 30 2007 10:23 PM

looks like the tropics don't want to take the rest of may off..
some kind of low pressure area--maybe a sheared/lopsided tropical cyclone or maybe one of those not quite closed trough lows--is getting busy developing in the nw caribbean near the coast of belize tonight. most of the globals are showing its continued evolution and perhaps a baroclinic deepening run as it moves nne towards florida. whether a system forms or not florida is in for one of those significant tropical rain events.
it's hard to say how things will play out with how complicated things are on the eastpac side. barbara got its act together over the last couple of days and is a small system embedded in one of those monsoon trough environments that extends eastward from weakening alvin, to central america and across to the synoptically favorable environment east of the digging upper trough over the western caribbean. interestingly another small vorticity max system is hanging near the coast of el salvador, perhaps stealing a bit of barbara's fire. barbara is not dominating and controlling the larger-scale atmospheric motions in the monsoon trough, so it is not strengthening quickly, but it appears that it will eventually get organized as well, and threaten mexico. barbara taking its time is probably important for preserving the environment that may allow an atlantic system to organize and threaten florida, as a strong system with an impressive outflow would likely undo the positive but challenging upper air conditions to the east.
this is sort of remarkable, that here at the end of may we are seeing another potential tropical development on the atlantic side, which may end up being a cross-basin triplet with the pacific systems induced by either an MJO burst or one of those easterly surges in the tropical pacific. keep an eye to the northwest caribbean for the next two days as something may quickly spring up, in the manner that Arlene did in early june 2005.
may have to go to another thread tomorrow.
HF 0322z31may


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