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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75132 - Thu May 31 2007 12:10 PM

Pretty neat to see that there were 3 forecasters on the Statement issued.
Nice spin showing up... Having a time with the radar data from mexico.

Sat vis

WE NEED THE RAIN! based on the water vapor, Florida is about to get some!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75133 - Thu May 31 2007 12:16 PM

Convection expanding...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg

Edited by danielw (Thu May 31 2007 03:08 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75134 - Thu May 31 2007 12:19 PM

I know that weather.com has in the forecast for Miami two straight days of rain starting tomorrow and I believe it is due to this system.


This is an interesting system to say the least. Didn't the GFS from last week prog a system possibly forming right there in the Northwestern Carribean yesterday or today?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #75135 - Thu May 31 2007 12:23 PM

Key West Long Range RADAR showing mass of rain heading north toward the lower keys.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------
RJB


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75136 - Thu May 31 2007 12:25 PM Attachment (265 downloads)

Cancun's Radar picture from now is attached to this post. So far, they aren't getting much in the way of rain.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #75137 - Thu May 31 2007 12:42 PM Attachment (325 downloads)

NHC graphic is atttached.


Edited by Hurricane29 (Thu May 31 2007 12:47 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75138 - Thu May 31 2007 12:50 PM

I am interested in watching the progress of that energy digging south in the central GOM...Looks like a complex of convection that may get pulled into this developing system by its influence and the outflow from Barbara...This is beginning to look more like a closed cyclone than an open trough all the time and that energy may just be all it needs to complete the picture.

--------------------
doug


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Interested in watching the progress... [Re: doug]
      #75139 - Thu May 31 2007 01:35 PM

I agree.

You can see the consolidation taking place down in the WC/Yucatan Channel. It's getting that look of systems which form down there get. If 92L goes warmcore and gets to the surface, it could easily become a mid-grade tropical storm. At the same time, it would also be interesting if it evolved into a hybrid system given that the point of origin is purely tropical. Usually June systems tend to be unbalanced as they butt up against the sheer. Otherewise I'll save the hellos and pleasantries of "Welcome to 2007" because I don't want my post nixed by Ed "Post Master" Dunham.



Steve

(Welcome back - I'm sure glad that you didn't bother with the hellos and pleasantries!)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu May 31 2007 07:33 PM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: Steve]
      #75140 - Thu May 31 2007 01:41 PM

Here are some model runs I found:


--------------------


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75141 - Thu May 31 2007 01:57 PM

NWS Tampa Bay Afternoon Disc:

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUMP
UP AGAINST THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON FUTURE TRACK OF THIS LOW. 12Z NAM TAKES IT
NORTH ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINS JUST OFFSHORE. WHEREAS GFS HAS IT EJECTING NORTHEAST QUICKLY
EARLY SATURDAY. PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF FEATURES ALOFT...KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF
THE GULF BY 00Z SUNDAY AND HAVING IT MERGE INTO A LARGER CUTOFF
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN...1-2 INCHES
IF NOT A LITTLE MORE...TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT RAINS WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS CIRRUS CANOPY BUILDS
DOWN...SO POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER QPFS. SW FLORIDA
MAY GET THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE BUT BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE COULD
KEEP CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA DRIER FRIDAY.

WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WHEREAS MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CROSSING CENTRAL FL SAT NIGHT INTO
LATE SUN WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN.

--------------------
RJB


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75142 - Thu May 31 2007 02:13 PM

205pm update

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 75 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN
GULF. THIS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A BIG AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-87W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THIS
STRONGER ACTIVITY PULLING N INTO RADAR RANGE. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND
FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING TO THE N/NE INTO A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

--------------------


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75143 - Thu May 31 2007 02:16 PM

Consensus of the various global model runs seems to be focused now on a low pressure track through Tampa Bay NE across to Daytona Beach.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75144 - Thu May 31 2007 02:18 PM

I have not seen much this day to suade my thinking away from a system destined to less than pure tropical form in the longer run...

Currently, a 1005mb low is being depicted:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html ...then, click on "NWS Fronts" checkbox.

This loop clearly demonstrates, particularly in the last several frames, that a cyclonic motion in the cloud parsels has evolved during the late morning and early afternoons; my best "guesstimate" would place that axis of rotation somewhat NNE of the NWS Front product's low position. (I am aware that others may have other sources).

It is possible that a depression is getting going at this time. If you click on the "HDW-high" checkbox, the upper level winds directly over the NWS Front low position are 5 to 10 kts in a weakly diffluent field. There is a much more obvious diffluence axis along 83W by 20N, but the current potential spin up does not appear to be physically connected to that feature. What may not be readily observed by the untrained eye is that there is a different form of diffluence in the region near 21.5N by 86W.

First, if you look up along 86W by 22.5N, there are numerous 40 to 55kt winds entering the Gulf from the south. Now, if you look back along where the axis of rotation is, note those upper level winds are much, much lighter. The intermediate region between these lighter winds, and that of the stronger winds just to the north, is commonly referred to as an "exit jet region". This causes a lift assist, or a fluid dynamic process that helps to excite upward vertical motion. When that upward vertical motion persists for a certain length of time, the converging winds nearer to the surface will finally have integrated enough coriolis momentum to begin responding to that virtual force. Rotation ensues...

Not intending to delve too deeply into speculation here but it is quite plausible in my mind that the current cyclonic gyration amid the convergence at the surface is at least in part a response to this transient (temporary) jet configuration existing just to the north. The upward vertical motion that responded to this form of diffluence, triggered better surface convergence.

Be that as it may, and may indeed help a depression to be formed in that region, the governing synoptic points covered in the last thread by Clark, HF and myself have not changed. The pattern on whole over the eastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf is going through a period of amplification, featuring trough tendencies at lower latitudes. That is why a band of stronger mid and upper level westerlies can be noted extending SW to NE through just to the north of the Yuc. Penn. Any evolution or changing in the regional jet configurations is slated to do so quite slowly over the next day and a half. That means that spatially, this system has very limited wiggle room in the nearer terms. A drift toward the north precariously involves it in these westerlies and that is in fact bodily what the majority of the guidance is suggesting. Once that motion ensues, I do not see this developing very well because it will only mean shear ever increasing.

Again, it is possible also that if the system were to assume a NE motion along the wind vectors at greater speeds, this relative motion would reduce the impactive wind velocities, thus reduction in shear. That may allow some intensification to take place, but still not ideally so... That result would more likely be a tilted system, where the typical structure is heavy rain/thunder extending northeast along a quasi-warm frontal trough, with a partially exposed surface circulation on the southwestern edge of the deeper convection. That is quite common in these situations quite frankly.

The other aspect is that with stronger and coherent jet structures involved, that would also force baroclinic dynamics in the maelstrom. The cyclone phase state will transition to baroclinic as it cross Florida and gets embedded in the larger scale circulation of the eastern U.S. trough.

It is important to keep in mind that these phase state changes take place along a spectrum. As this system crosses Florida, the ECM is in fact developing a fairly potent and compact coastal system up along and just off the Mid Atlantic in the 00Z run. If this were to verify, there will be a plume of latent heat drawn up out of the tropics; even though the system has taken on baroclinic characteristics along its route this may be detected by interesting satellite presentations, as well as ground truth. ...The 12Z ECM is due out any time now... This models has been the most consistent with the track guidance and ultimately also is about down the middle of the envelope. It thus seems reasonable to assess it as the most likely course, so the new run will be interesting.

[EDIT] -- I forgot to mention... This system will likely be moving right along by the time its most likely impact is felt, over Florida. For this, I do not believe "excessive" rains will take place. However, it will certainly rain quite hard for few hours. Flash flooding is always a concern, even in very dry antecedent conditions that is true; a ton of rain in a short period of time might simply exceed absorption rates. Overall, however, this may prove more beneficial than destructive as far as the flood concern goes...

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu May 31 2007 02:20 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #75146 - Thu May 31 2007 02:43 PM

I think what we are missing is the fact that this system isnt stacked up. We have a LLC just south of Cozumel...a midlevel center to its NE ..just south of the western tip of Cuba..and a upper ridge closer to Honduras and Jamaica. My basic quick reasoning is for this LLC to not develop much at all and head slowly north...while the midlevel center becomes better established and takes over and crosses Sw Florida from Ft Myers-Tampa Bay and develops further as a baroclonic low north of the bahamas.

I favor the 12Z run of the GFS...along with and just north of the 12Z GFDL... the current LLC will weaken later Friday into Saturday as the subtropical or baroclonic low forms Friday off the NW tip of Cuba and heads NNE.

This could be a subtropical storm off SW florida by later Friday night. Winds could still reach 50-60mph..but this wont be fully tropical.
scottsvb


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #75148 - Thu May 31 2007 03:40 PM Attachment (265 downloads)

There's it goes again.. strong convection over the "possible" new LLC.. nice little hook there to..
Anyways.. the attachment is up there if you want to check it out. I have no idea what this thing is up to but I have a feeling a surprise is waiting for us sometime late tonight or tommorrrow, keep in mind.. this is normal for convection to die down in the daytime. It's overnight that surprises like Alberto, Andrea, and that one invest area last year that went through the islands in September. So lets not call a death threat and give it a day or so.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Interested in watching the progress... [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75149 - Thu May 31 2007 03:48 PM


Since I'm not at work, here's what the crew at the office wrote about the system this afternoon...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10


...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS SHOW LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT
THOUGH GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH DEEPENING TREND BY 00Z. SHOULD STILL
SEE CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A LATE NIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.

FRIDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD AND TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E CENTRAL FL. BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD (SIMILAR TO HPC/ECM PROGS) BUT SHOULD SPREAD SOME RAIN
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PM HOURS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS AND GOOD CHC NRN SECTIONS.
ALSO...TRENDED ABOVE GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 80S WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. STILL A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH
GFS SHOWING 100KTS+ ACROSS THE NE GULF DRIVING ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH FOR THE SPEED/TRACK OF MOISTURE LIFTING N/NE
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ERN CUBA AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY DEVELOP.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MODELS STILL EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO THE HYBRID SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN...MAINLY
DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH INITIALIZATION AND THE EFFECT OF QPF ON THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOST APPROPRIATE COURSE OF ACTION
CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH FOLLOWS THE GENERAL
TRACK OF THE ECMWF. NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER AND WILL
BE DISREGARDED. GFS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRI
EVENING-SAT MORNING (ASSUMING ECMWF TIMING) AS THE SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SREF
SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...WHICH NO DOUBT WILL BE
BENEFICIAL TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE ELEVATED FRI NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST
DYNAMICS PUSHING OFFSHORE...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN (BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH) AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #75150 - Thu May 31 2007 04:07 PM

certainly an interesting start to a potentially active season. it certainly looks like it is attempting to get its act together. the cloud envelope looks as though it is trying to form some structure. unless it really gets organized i dont think we will see the NHC pull the trigger on a classified system ( depression ) this evening. on the other hand though, if they wait until the aircraft reports back tomorrow they will have to scramble up some potential watches or warnings quickly for logistic reasons ( if it warrants ) as this has the potential to start impacting FL as early as tomorrow night. it will also be interesting to see the next set of model runs because i think that some of the plots take this too far west into the panhandle. i think the flow will push it no further north and west than say the tampa area. too early to tell and obviously we will have a much better handle on this system at some point tomorrow.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #75151 - Thu May 31 2007 04:20 PM

Latest model runs shifting a little more toward the FL big bend region for the track. 12Z NOGAPS now shows a panhandle landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

--------------------
RJB


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #75152 - Thu May 31 2007 04:35 PM

At this time, I would have to say that landfall will take place between Tampa and Fort Myers (similar to area where Charley hit in 2004). I do not believe this will make an extreme right into South Florida. Nonetheless, the rains will begin late tonight and should be steady through overnight Saturday. Right now, I believe the general rainfall totals will be anywhere from 2 to 5 inches. Could see more in the Keys and South Florida. Let the games begin. Nice to see Cat5orBust giving his thoughts on this system.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75153 - Thu May 31 2007 04:43 PM

I think those models right now need to be taken with caution cause we have to wait and see were the aircraft finally puts the center which can change the look of those models.

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