MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11:30PM Update
See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.
Original Update
Tomorrow is the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we are still watching an area in the Western Caribbean. Now being tracked as Invest 92L. It at least may bring rain to the Florida Peninsula later.
We'll be watching this as a possible opener for the new season. Some models have been predicting more than what we actually wound up with today, but still convection has flared up overnight. If this persists we may be tracking something soon. Florida potentially could get too much rain (well too much in a short period of time) depending on where the system winds up. But by the time it gets to Florida, the forward motion should be quicker, thus reducing the flash flood potential.
Model links at the bottom of the main page can give you an idea what is projected.
It is most likely going to remain a rain event, however, as the upper air environment isn't all that hot for development.. Also the stacking needed is just not there But still the chance for some tropical (or subtropical) development is there, it will need to be watched for persistence.
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have been scheduled to check out this system tomorrow, if needed.
The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.
W. Caribbean Storm (92L) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 92L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Radar Loops
Key West, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Cancun, MX Radar
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean
Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page
More on the Links
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
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Lot of showers on the east side of this storm. Looks ragged now but the still has this storm getting its act together in another 24 hrs and making landfall right around were Alberto did last year. This is a good warm up practice before the big game starts tomorrow. Does anyone know where the center of this invest is currently?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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My recollection from the past several years is that the is pretty useless...????
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Lot of showers on the east side of this storm. Looks ragged now but the still has this storm getting its act together in another 24 hrs and making landfall right around were Alberto did last year. This is a good warm up practice before the big game starts tomorrow. Does anyone know where the center of this invest is currently?
The invest is centered near 19.6N 87.1W, which is about 60-65 miles south of Cozumel in Mexico.
Windshear is ok (around 10-20 knots) at least through Saturday, but I don't expect it to develop much.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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You are correct ED....it is..but it does get some correct....like a few years ago.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Of course lets not forget Alberto.. it was awesome with that storm.. but anyways.. I think it will slowly drift north and may just MAY have enough energy and time before it reaches the gulf to become TD2 or even Barry. I think it will hit Florida Saturday night.. at least I hope.. I have a wedding to attend.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Jeff Masters on his weatherunderground blog says that shear will remain low untill Saturday under 10Kts. This could give it enough time to make it to a TD. The bad news is that this system needs to head for the panhandle and not south FL to bring rain to areas that really need it in North FL and GA. On a side note Dr Gray kept his numbers the same in his update that just came out .
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Right now...its a 1006mb broad surface low. Winds near the center are pretty weak..only about 5-15mph. 25kt winds are way away from the center near the T-Storms. Alot of the circulation isnt at the surface also.
The system does have the chance to become TD 2 or even our next TS...we will see if it continues to organize. model usually is a throw out model..as is the Nam...but has had some convective feedback problems of late. I tend to use a blend of the and the ..(usually ).
Also a note...T-Storms will die off some today and refire later this evening..Tropical systems have a durational min during the mid day hours and max late at night. Kinda think of it as how its more humid at night then during the day. Now tonight we will see if the new storms that fire up will be close to the center. If so we might see a drop in pressure 3-4mb.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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10-20kt windshear is not all that bad and could allow for a TD to develope.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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Quote:
Jeff Masters on his weatherunderground blog says that shear will remain low untill Saturday under 10Kts. This could give it enough time to make it to a TD. The bad news is that this system needs to head for the panhandle and not south FL to bring rain to areas that really need it in North FL and GA. On a side note Dr Gray kept his numbers the same in his update that just came out .
The entire state of Florida needs water. Lake Oceechobee is almost at a record low. So unfortunately, i think this is Great news.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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HPC looks like they favor a track west of the solution. From HPC morning discussion:
HIGH UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE SHORT RANGE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO LIFT OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT WITH CONTINUING TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z-06Z CONTINUES TO BE THE ON EASTERN EDGE
OF THE FCST ENVELOPE... WHILE THE CANADIAN IS AGAIN THE
FAST/STRONG WESTERN OUTLIER. BLENDING THE /UKMET/NOGAPS
WITH THE MEAN (WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY TRACKED WEST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS SINCE THE 00Z WED RUNS) YIELDS AN
INTERMEDIATE TRACK THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND SIMILAR TO THE
HPC FCST OF THE PAST DAYS. THE SLOW EAST MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A TRACK WEST OF THE .
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RJB
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Recon ready for tommorow...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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If they are going to be sending out a plane tomorrow, the should issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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92L is really trying to gain a name today.. the circulation is impressive, banding is looking good. I think we may have a TD as early as tonight if it continues to do it's thing. The convection from this morning has died down YET is circulating east of this low and trying to take a tropical system look. So I guess the only thing to do is wait. Models should be out shortly on the system.. I mean the stringy looking ones lol.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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What is the site for the model plots? I have never been able to find the website. Thanks.
In addition, I have noticed from the latest visible imagery that this disturbance is forming a more well-defined COC. The banding features have become increasingly more organized and the storms have stuck around for the past 6 hours. This is going to be very interesting to watch.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Quote:
What is the site for the model plots? I have never been able to find the website. Thanks.
In addition, I have noticed from the latest visible imagery that this disturbance is forming a more well-defined COC. The banding features have become increasingly more organized and the storms have stuck around for the past 6 hours. This is going to be very interesting to watch.
Here you go...
Current TPC/NHC Model Plot
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bamacoast
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
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The structure of this system looks particularly impressive for the short time period that it has evolved. Once the system moves further northward, the southwest quadrant should become less influenced by the outflow of the Pacific tropical systems which appear to be weakening a bit at this point. Also, I do note some heavier convection close to the center on the northwest side near the tip of the Yucatan. I expect a TPC statement soon.
Edited by bamacoast (Thu May 31 2007 12:05 PM)
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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NHC has issued the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement:
000
WONT41 KNHC 311549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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(duplicate post deleted)
A reminder that it is not necessary to post bulletins since they are already available on the site. Short portions of a bulletin are okay to post if they help to illustrate a point that you are attempting to make.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu May 31 2007 07:48 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Current TPC/NHC Model Plot
Note the links are all up in the main page article too, but I don't think the plot has been updated yet to anything, it may not for a few hours at least.
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