MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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5p ET Update: Tropical Storm Barry comes to be...
3:15p ET 6/1 Update: The recon plane in the disturbance has found a minimum pressure of 1000mb and maximum flight level (about 1000ft aloft) winds of 52kt. More importantly, it has found a decent warm-core structure at low levels and I would anticipate an upgrade to Tropical Storm Barry at 5p.
Original Update
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins today, and we are watching a system in the western Caribbean that may bring rain to Florida.
The system still isn't likely to develop much, if at all, as conditions for it doing so are becoming more hostile.
See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.
Although we always hope for another inactive season, this year is expected to be an above average year for storms, so it could get busy. Normally June is a slow month, as the season really doesn't start to get going until August.
Flhurricane is a non-profit site, but still requires resources to run, we emphasize quality information over quantity, and focus on the information with an outlet for communication. We do not celebrate the arrival of hurricanes or hurricane season, as the point is to help keep people informed and encourage using multiple sources of information to help make decisions, always preferring the use of official sources over unofficial ones.
If you would like to donate to help out, please see the Donations and Thanks
Page for more information.
Storm Names for 2007 are
Andrea, a preseason Subtropical Storm, has already formed, so the next system will be the "B" system.
For Floridians, a sales tax holiday begins today and lasts until midnight on June 12th, you can get the following hurricane related items sans sales tax in this time:
- Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
- Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
- Tarps - $50 or less
- Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
- Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
- Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
- Portable generators - $1,000 or less
- Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
- Storm shutter devices - $200 or less
Yesterday's Update
Tomorrow is the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we are still watching an area in the Western Caribbean. Now being tracked as Invest 92L. It at least may bring rain to the Florida Peninsula later.
We'll be watching this as a possible opener for the new season. Some models have been predicting more than what we actually wound up with today, but still convection has flared up overnight. If this persists we may be tracking something soon. Florida potentially could get too much rain (well too much in a short period of time) depending on where the system winds up. But by the time it gets to Florida, the forward motion should be quicker, thus reducing the flash flood potential.
Model links at the bottom of the main page can give you an idea what is projected.
It is most likely going to remain a rain event, however, as the upper air environment isn't all that hot for development.. Also the stacking needed is just not there But still the chance for some tropical (or subtropical) development is there, it will need to be watched for persistence.
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have been scheduled to check out this system tomorrow, if needed.
The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.
W. Caribbean Storm Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 02
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 02
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 02
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 02 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 02
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 02
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 02 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Radar Loops
Key West, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Cancun, MX Radar
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean
Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page
More on the Links
page
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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From what I am observing of satellite trends, the curent system of interest is already attempting a transition to hybrid/baroclinic morphology (phase transition). The trough digging will likely, from this point forward, dictate this system's physical evolution. This is thus transforming into an unusual circumstance of sorts, in that for such an extremely low latitude, we are seeing cyclogenesis for jet mechanics working on horizontally induced theta-e gradients, at such at late date.
However, there will still be some residual tropical characteristics lingering considering origin. In situ proximity to native environment over the northwest Caribbean and southeast Gulf means more latent heat input than this type of trough really needs.
There may also be specific (detailed) windows of opportunity as discussed by my self in particular, but also Tony, as this entity begins to migrate north by northeast toward Florida and beyond.
Caveat: There is always an air of uncertainty when dealing with systems in this particular lat/lon, at this time of year. There is sufficient oceanic heat content should the environment closer to the Yuc Penn couple up between atm and SST. Namely, if this system remains very shallow, there is a "slim" chance it could be left behind. I have seen at least one (more though) model runs that showed chances for spin ups long after this major migration out of the area. That could be an indication that the area remains fertile post trough lifting out.
...A bit more speculation than perhaps wanted...apologies. It is worth noting however, as it does deal with the system currently in question.
Clark has also given a fine run down in his blog entry...I suggest you read it for educational and current conceptual clarity.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Jun 01 2007 12:26 AM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Wake up, everybody! It's officially hurricane season!
Doesn't look very healthy this am, but the NHD still talks about the possibility of tropical development. Also, the models have now shifted more to an up the coast track...we're not as destitute as FL with rain, but well under the anuual average here, too.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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I'm not a wave mongerer, but you know, in this case, I'm PRAYING for rain. Does that count as wish-casting?
This morning, here in west Charlotte County, it's overcast, and there's a very light breeze out of the east. It hasn't rained here yet, but radar has shown it rained a little on the southern end of the peninsula. We're on the far northern edge of this system at this point.
Still a light smell of smoke in the air from the Lake O fire.
And am I reading the recon report right -- did they cancel today's recon?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Fri Jun 01 2007 08:45 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Nope, recon is still a go and I believe it's a smart thing to go ahead and still fly into this mess because there's still convection.. it's not like there's nothing to fly into so we will see what the recon reports give us later on today.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Recon was cancelled for Barbara in the EPAC. Still on for Invest in the GOM
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Morning All,
It would seem that the 'center' of circulation is just now coming onto the long-range radar out of Key West.
There is a thunderstorm that shows up quite nicely on the radar loop, that is just NE of the apparent center.
But it's not the supercell type (-80 degrees and colder), and most of the convective banding that is developing is well away from the center of circulation, suggesting more of a sub-tropical appearance.
I suggest that it will become sub-tropical, at best, as the shear is only going to get stronger with time.
But! The GREAT news is that Florida is going to get the good soaking it deserves.
At last! I think there will be more than a few people dancing in the rain, so to speak.
Wishing everyone an interesting and Safe! '07 Hurricane Season. Be Prepared!
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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When I go to the website and click on the Recon link for today, I see this:
Quote:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 30 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z MAY TO 01/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BARBARA
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BARBARA
C. 30/1300Z
D. 13.0N 97.0W
E. 30/1700 TO 30/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX BARBARA AT 01/1800Z
NEAR 13.2N 96.7W IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Am I looking at the wrong link or did they just not update yet?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
you have to go to plan for tomorrow. they have not updated the site yet but look at the top is says 01 for June 1, which is today 1800 z
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Whether or not this system is classified as a subtropical or tropical entity matters very little in its overall impact. However, since people are more likely to respond to "Barry" than just another "low pressure" system, the will probably give it the nod if recon finds a closed low. Convection is increasing and persisting in its eastern quadrant and wind speeds are certainly sufficient for at least TD strength. Possibly a similar impact as Alberto last year.
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JFTD3
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Ah, okay. That was confusing!
Update -- We're getting RAIN in western Charlotte county! It finally started raining nearly an hour ago. It's a steady, light drizzle. The PERFECT kind of rain to soak into the ground. Yippee!
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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OK,
just had a quick glance at the latest vis imagery and loops. Looks like we have a defined centre of circulation at the surface, now due north of the western tip of Cuba, and on the southwestern side of the cloud shield. Convection isnt deep, and the system is pretty lop-sided in that the majority of the activity is located to the right side. If anything i would suggest it is at best sub-tropical. With RECON now enroute we should know more in the next few hours.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
very visible image there proving there is some center but is that at the surface?
are the planes going into that area specifically
amazing to watch on imagery
Just a word of reason though... it is very cool in Miami, the ocean temps are not high and I was in the Keys all last week and it wasn't very warm there. This system feels more frontal or extra-tropical even if they find a center.. just doesn't quite feel like a Tropical entity even though we are down in the Tropics.
Lots of mosquitos too from the recent rains.. watch out Tampa
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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There investigating the system now.. here's the first report!
Fri Jun 01 2007
1656 GMT
Latitude 27.6 N
Longitude 88.1 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 22999 feet (7010 meters)
Flight level winds 200 degrees at 34 knots (39 mph)
Temperature -18 C Dewpoint -27 C
Remarks: AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 01
... Looks to me if winds continue to stay or get stronger, Barry will be named.. though i'm not good with reading these reports so somebody help me out here lol.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Fri Jun 01 2007 01:10 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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On that image, it clearly does look more like a front than any kind of tropical system.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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A defined circulation has certainly developed around 23.3N 85.5W. If recon can close off this low, then the system will probably be classified at 5pm, or as a special advisory. Winds are already sustained at 35mph in the rainbands east of the circulation. Its hybrid/lopsided nature will limit intensification, but we could very well have a close repeat of Alberto this time last year.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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thank you Ed for your help translating that.. they always confuse me.
thats the one thing I never seem to have been able to figure out..
rain coming down in miami.. straight and heavy
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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It dont take much to call a storm subtropical...all it needs its 35kt winds at the surface close to the center (near the storms) and a warm core center. ... This does have a marginal warm core center but its in a shear enviroment. Water temps are in the low 80s. I dont think its fully tropical though..nonetheless if they find this a closed center(as it is) then they will issues tropical storm warnings at 5pm. Bouys well east and near Cuba have exceeded 52mph. Models still say that this hybrid type system will have winds near 50mph by morning..Affects on the land will only be 25-40mph near and east of the strengthening hybrid system. It should be or more baroclinic after it makes landfall in florida from Sarasota-Citrus County. Overall this will bring rainfall amounts around 2-4 inches over most locations east of the center...isolated amounts up to 6inches. To the north of the center..expect less then a inch as drier air will be pulled in from the west. Isolated tornados will accompany in isloted stronger cells over florida..especially on Saturday when the system approaces land.
bottom line..tropical or not...its strengthing and will all the way till it passes the carolinas...the winds will continue to pick up and expand up the coast from Florida-NC by Sunday.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Jun 01 2007 01:29 PM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I agree.. very broad area of circulation, they already found winds over 35 mph. So it will most likely become Sub-tropical Storm Barry.. though has there ever been a sub-tropical storm in the GOM or Carribean??
I only heard of ones in the Atlantic Ocean
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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