MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10AM Saturday Update
Tropical Storm Barry looked more subtropical for a time last night, however, the low level circulation center has remained intact and convection is again beginning to build just north of the center. Barry is now moving northeast at about 15mph and the storm should make landfall in the Tampa Bay area prior to 11am. Barry will move across the state taking a northeast to north northeast direction with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds near the center are 45 to 50mph and the storm is likely to maintain winds of 35 to 40mph near the center as it crosses the Florida peninsula.
A developing feeder band extending south from the center will move across the peninsula and bring a threat for strong thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes later this afternoon. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 3pm.
During the night a strong convective cell move along and just inland of the Florida east coast from Ft Pierce northward and produced some significant rainfall with storm totals (through 02/12Z) of 4.65 inches at Satellite Beach and 6.00 inches at the Melbourne NWS.
ED
7:30AM June 2 update
The center of Barry is still offshore, southwest of Tampa. And the forecast track has moved to the right, now landfall should be north of Tampa. Most of the rain is to the North and Northeast of the center, so Central Florida has seen most of the heaviest of the rain it will get already. However, a Tornado watch remains up until 3 PM today for much of the area.
The big Bend of Florida and Northern Florida will continue to get heavy rain for a few more hours.
Convection surprisingly fired up a bit more this morning near the center, but the low level center is likely to fall apart very quickly as the rest of the convection races across. Similar to Alberto.
Let us know conditions in your area here
7:20PM update
Recon reports pressure drop to 997mb. Range of 50-60MPH winds. Strongest winds are on the western side of the convection though. Interesting to see how much longer it can hold together at this strength. The pressure dropping trend seems to be at halt,since soon after that recon report it appeared that convection was starting to fall off.
6:55PM update
Indications are that the northeastern movement (along the path of the cloud blow off) is occurring earlier than expected, likely making the landfall point a bit more east. But in such a storm, it won't make much difference.
Barry does have a lot of lightning associated with it (See map), which is unusual for a Tropical Storm.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the Gulf of Mexico 320 miles southwest of Tampa, FL.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach up to Keaton Beach.
Recon aircraft found around 1000mb of pressure earlier, and found a pressure of 1000mb, and with a slightly strengthening system, it was enough to classify it as a Tropical Storm. The second of 2007, on the first day of the season.
More recent recon has found a slightly stronger system with 998mb of pressure. Equates to roughly 50-55MPH (in better conditions maybe even 60MPH) winds. Tornadoes may be caused by this system. See the local storm statements. The system may strengthen just a bit more, but most of the convection is getting blown off to the northeast, sending most of the rain to Florida (and we can use it).
As for impact,
o Flood preparedness
o Tornado awareness
o Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.
The heaviest rain for Central Florida will be between 3AM and 3PM tomorrow.
Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.
Long Term flhurricane radar recording of Barry
More to come soon...
Hurricane City is doing thier kickoff storm broadcast tonight at 8.
Earlier Update
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins today, and we are watching a system in the western Caribbean that may bring rain to Florida.
The system still isn't likely to develop much, if at all, as conditions for it doing so are becoming more hostile.
See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.
Although we always hope for another inactive season, this year is expected to be an above average year for storms, so it could get busy. Normally June is a slow month, as the season really doesn't start to get going until August.
Flhurricane is a non-profit site, but still requires resources to run, we emphasize quality information over quantity, and focus on the information with an outlet for communication. We do not celebrate the arrival of hurricanes or hurricane season, as the point is to help keep people informed and encourage using multiple sources of information to help make decisions, always preferring the use of official sources over unofficial ones.
If you would like to donate to help out, please see the Donations and Thanks
Page for more information.
Storm Names for 2007 are
Andrea, a preseason Subtropical Storm, has already formed, so the next system will be the "B" system.
For Floridians, a sales tax holiday begins today and lasts until midnight on June 12th, you can get the following hurricane related items sans sales tax in this time:
- Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
- Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
- Tarps - $50 or less
- Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
- Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
- Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
- Portable generators - $1,000 or less
- Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
- Storm shutter devices - $200 or less
The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.
Barry Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Barry
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Barry
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Barry
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Barry (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Barry
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Barry
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Barry -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Radar Loops
Key West, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tallahassee, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Northwest, FL Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Lightning Strike Map
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean
Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page
More on the Links
page
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 02 2007 10:10 AM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Through the evening, I will be curious to see if this is one of those "Thunderstorm chaser" Systems that we have seen a couple of in recent years over 'round this side of the Gulf. Perfect examples being Earl in '98 and Gabriele in '01. These storms get an established center, the thunderstorms shear off to the NE and a new, slightly stronger center reforms to theNortheast under the thunderstorms time and time again until landfall or system decay. This may be a classic candidate for that now,and if it does so, I'd expect a landfall around Tampa or a bit further south as a moderate tropical storm, but nothing more. Either way, I wouldn't expect anything too strong along the western coast and we are gonna get some much welcome rain! Too funny! I wrote this thing off last night. That tasty crow is mighty delicious! LOL :-)
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Looks like barry maybe is taken a sharper NE is turn...Atleast it appears that way on satelitte imagery.
How about a link to the imagery that you looked at.
visible loop
Edited by Hurricane29 (Fri Jun 01 2007 06:36 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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For some reason this storm appears to be moving alittle more north/ east now rather than north i might be wrong
Again, post a link to the imagery you are looking at to your post.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Jun 01 2007 06:39 PM)
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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Looks like a big push to the NE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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92L being verified as a Tropical Storm is not terribly surprising to me, although admittedly still a bit of a "Wow, on June 1, no less!" moment. Color-enhanced satellite loops as early as last night were strongly suggesting that a tight and at least somewhat warm-cored coc had already formed. Will make for an interesting read when HRD gets around to it.
Would like to point out an earlier ship report that lends a strong voice, when taken with the most recent recon data, for another upgrade tonight.
SHIP 1800UTC 23.70 -85.10 Due East 49.9 knots 29.68" Rapid falling
(National Data Buoy Center)
Barry reminds me of Alberto, and more than a little bit. With him attempting to form a tenuous eyewall, just about all afternoon, I think he stands a pretty good shot of developing a small, but noteworthy core of very strong TS/perhaps marginal Cat 1 winds. Of course, Alberto wasn't exactly known for his ferocious winds, but he also worked on trying to put together a respectable eyewall just before landfall, and there is reason to believe that a small core of 70MPH surface wind really did exist.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well the latest Vortex Data message has estimated surface winds at a little under 60 mph, and maximum flight level winds of near 78 mph. Interestingly both measured in the left hand side of the storm - not on the right where most of the weather is. Could we see Barry noticeably stronger than forecast... maybe even making it to Cat 1? Well given the visible presentation i would say no, but given the aircraft data, then that does become quite a real possibility.
EDIT: Latest vortex data has pressure down to 997 mb
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Fri Jun 01 2007 07:17 PM)
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clueless
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like we will get off to an early start into this season. Could someone tell me more about the lightning issue? I know it is very unusual for tropical weather to be accompanied by lightning. Lightning is the last thing that we need here in central Florida. Any clue why this storm has it when others tend not to?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Looks like we will get off to an early start into this season. Could someone tell me more about the lightning issue? I know it is very unusual for tropical weather to be accompanied by lightning. Lightning is the last thing that we need here in central Florida. Any clue why this storm has it when others tend not to?
Either it's not purely tropical (likely), or sometimes in rapidly strengthening storms lightning has appeared. Barry is a little bit of both, but I think the strengthening part has ended.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Hail aloft is often very important in creating the static which results in lightning. Most thunderstorms within Tropical Cyclones do not produce copious hail, however. In fact, most thunderstorms within classic TCs are rather low-topped, that is to say, they do not reach way up into the upper troposphere as do severe thunderstorms which form over land. This is in no small part due to the temperature profile both in the vertical as well as horizontal of TCs. Rapidly strengthening and/or very strong TCs occasionally do produce tremendous amounts of lightning, and even hail, as their thunderstorms can respond to this intensity in such a way that they are essentially strong to severe cells within the larger cyclone.
(This is all a bit of a quick and dirty description).
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Winds have increased to 50mph and the pressure is at 997mb.------8pm update
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Well, Shiver me timbers!
Barry made the tropical transition that almost everyone *did not* think would happen, even myself.
I was looking at the very first visible pics and mentioned earlier an another post that it was looking alot like a sub-tropical system, at best. And there really wasn't much in the way of deep convection near the center.
But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up, and despite the shear, began wrapping around the center, and with each passing visible pic added to the loop, it became apparent that cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!
I too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.
But keep it up! There have been many very insightful and educational postings. Great forum. Learning tons! Thank you all.
I am so happy for the good folks who will be getting the drenching we've all been praying for so long.
I heard it's been dubbed 'Benifical Barry'. A true Godsend for the parched peninsula! THANKS BARRY!
- Former Coconut Grove and Key West Resident
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up, and despite the shear, began wrapping around the center, and with each passing visible pic added to the loop, it became apparent that cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!
I too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.
Well... I was among those who thought the same thing you did, until this afternoon. Now, I'm beginning to return to that camp, based upon the last several AVN images. While Barry was very much tropical in structure at the time of the 5pm advisory, I think it's already losing its tropical characteristics, due to shear and the rapid movement.
Edit: I just loaded the visible loop, which shows the LLC in the overnight IR, and I was completely wrong about the movement. It looks as if the LLC actually isn't moving much... maybe drifting due east... but the shear has pulled Barry apart.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jun 01 2007 08:29 PM)
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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The circulation is completely exposed now as seen on the last visible images of the day. The intensity has probably peaked for this storm. However--as is common with these systems--we might see another flare-up of convection near the center overnight. Either that, or it transitions quickly into an system. Seems to me that this system will become sooner rather than later. The rain area will probably exit the west coast of Florida by midday Saturday and then there will be a strong, dry onshore wind from the exposed circulation ala Gordon in 2000.
Here in Pinellas County, we have been experiencing steady rain for several hours...1/2" so far. The wind is just starting to pick up with gusts in the range of 20-25mph.
Edited by Ronn (Fri Jun 01 2007 09:02 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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As of 8pm EDT Tropical Storm Warnings and Inland Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH
...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF LEVY... CITRUS... HERNANDO... SUMTER... PASCO...
PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH... POLK... MANATEE... SARASOTA... HARDEE... DESOTO... HIGHLANDS... CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/HLSTBW
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml
http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HLS
Reminder- Full Moon was yesterday/ last night. High tides are running higher than normal due to the Full Moon.~danielw
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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The last 7 hours the LLC has moved little. The convection has been blowing off to the NE. There has been a bit of an increase of convective activity on the east side which is good as it will spread across the FL peninsula since we need the rain. I am a little surprised that the earlier convective burst didn't pull the LLC more to the NNE.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Excerpts...
Miami NWS 919pm EDT-Friday
.UPDATE...THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 349.
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN THE FRONT RIGHT QUAD OF T.S. BARRY AND THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE QUAD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES.
A LINE OF DISCREET VERY HEAVY SHOWERS JUST DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER KEYS THIS PAST HOUR AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY. JUST TALKED WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THEY ARE GOING TO GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
ACROSS SOUTH FL TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND RADAR TRENDS. HAVE JUST UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL. OTHER MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN OUR PRODUCTS. SO NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=61
Tampa NWS-648pm EDT-Friday
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A NUISANCE TYPE STORM WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ALONG THE NATURE COAST COULD SEE UP TO 5 FEET WITH THE SURGE ON SATURDAY. SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN STRONGER RAIN BANDS...AND DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&max=61
Tallahassee 910pm EDT-Friday
LATEST ADVISORY FROM HAS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEATON BEACH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. BARRY HAS A VERY SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. NEVERTHELESS...A SHIP REPORT ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER HAD WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. LATEST FORECAST KEEPS BARRY AS A 50 MPH TROPICAL STORM AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR HORSESHOE BEACH AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. WITH THE PATH OF BARRY BEING LARGELY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO FROM THE CENTER. THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF GETTING TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT IF THE TRACK OF BARRY SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...THESE TOTALS WILL DECREASE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTAE&max=61
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/
Map with links to all NWS Offices
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, Barry is looking mighty pathetic tonight. Maybe I bit the bullet a little too soon with my commentary on the models earlier? Not sure. Anyway, it looks like the upper low in the Gulf has decided to move east after all, which is slowly pushing the storm in that direction as well. The general flow is out of the south, but the overall progression of the entire mess to the east is sending the storm on a NE path right now.
As a result, I've gotta back off of my Big Bend/W Cent Florida idea and come down to the Tampa region landfall-wise. This is due to a lack of vertical coherence plus a bit more of an impetus to the upper low to move east. Complicating factors could come if the center does reform closer to the convection, which is still headed for the Big Bend/Cedar Key area, but I don't know how likely that is right now. Hopefully the diurnal convective max gives us some ideas.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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From part of the new advisory:
"BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE."
Would it be just a little too convenient for the isolated areas to be right over some of these wildfires, or will they end up being out over the Gulf?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Looks like most of the rain will be off shore, but 3-5 inches possibly on the west side of Florida with more up north to Dixie County and then on to Georgia.
Denis Philips, Channel 28 in Tampa, more or less called this this a sub tropical system on his 11 p.m. update just now. But this is what the doctor ordered.
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