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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
14.0N 56.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
W at 25 mph
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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re:Clark [Re: Clark]
      #75362 - Sat Jun 02 2007 07:42 PM

One thing to add to the performance of the ECM is that it latched onto height falls over the GOMEX well ahead of the GFS. From my SAT 5/26 AFD...


"THU-SAT...MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD/HIGH COVERAGE RAIN EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS
WE HEAD INTO JUNE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GOMEX BY BOTH THE 00Z ECM AND
12Z GFS. ECM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH BOTH THE H50 TROUGH...AND THE
SURFACE RESPONSE...HOWEVER BOTH SOLNS SHOW ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO ALLOW
DEEP LYR FLOW TO ACQUIRE SIGNIF SRLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO FL. BY FRI/SAT...THE ECM SHOWS A MORE
CUTOFF/SLOWER SOLN...WHILE THE GFS LINKS THIS WEAKNESS UP WITH THE
NRN STREAM...CREATING A BROADER MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. IT'S
HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE GFS HAS OFTEN FOLLOWED THE ECM'S LEAD WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN...AND IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT
BTWN THE TWO...THOUGH IT STILL IS IN THE DAY 4+ TIME FRAME."


Additionally, I distinctly remember much stronger height falls working toward the GOMEX on the H144/H168 panels of the FRI 5/25/12Z run of the ECMWF compared to the corresponding run of the GFS...hence the "IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT BTWN THE TWO" comment from this AFD, issued the following day. More kudos for the ECM, which is usually the stellar performer amongst the globals in its depiction of the H50 height fields over NOAM/CONUS.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re:Clark [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #75368 - Sun Jun 03 2007 07:31 AM

The remnants of Barry actually look better organised now than ever as a Tropical Cyclone. although according to the HPC the centre is inland, early visible imagery shows a developing convective band wrapping around off shore of the GA / SC coasts. However, IR imagery shows that the convecion is shallow and weak, and at present there is little reflection of this wrap around in the latest radar imagery.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 242
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Secondary Circulation ?? [Re: Rich B]
      #75370 - Sun Jun 03 2007 07:54 AM Attachment (187 downloads)

Morning All,

Not too sure if this is the proper place to post this ...
It does contain the most recent threads, and, since Barry is no longer tropical,
I didn't think that the "Tropical Storm Barry" forum was a good place, either.

Perhaps we need to start a new thread (forum?) for extra-tropical 'Barry'.
Feel free to move this posting if you do so.

Now then ...

I'm checking out the satellite and doppler loops for ex-Barry, and I'm noticing something rather curious.

It would appear that there is a smaller circulation center that's been rotating through SE Georgia, now just exiting into the Atlantic, near the Georgia/South Carolina border, that appears to be embedded within the much larger overall circulation of the now extratropical Barry remnent. (Please view the attached satellite photo.)

I remember reading in these forums a day or two ago that a "piece of energy" might get 'left behind' as the overall, larger circulation accelerates off towards New England.

Question: Could this bit of 'vorticity' break away when ex-Barry pulls away, and languish over the Gulf stream for possible (sub?)-tropical development down the road.

Or, am I just noticing the ''inner sanctum" of the overall extratropical circulation that will eventually 'wrap' more towards the center, instead of it currently being *distinctly* in the SW quadrant of the overall much larger circulation.

I'd be interested in hearing from our forum meteorologists what their take is on this little 'will-o-the-wisp' of a 'circulation center'. Is this common with freshly transitioned systems when they acquire non-tropical characteristics?

--------------------------------------------------------

"The most incomprehensible thing about this Universe is that it should be comprehensible at all !!" - Albert Einstein

--------------------------------------------------------

--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #75374 - Sun Jun 03 2007 12:51 PM

Looking at the floater for the remnants of Barry, and combining this with the information in the 11am advisory from the Hydrometeorological Center, Barry's rains may be over, but the wind is actually stronger now. The advisory makes no mention of the term "tropical depression" because Barry has lost its tropical characteristics, but the NHC still shows the advisory under "Tropical Depression Barry". It's semantecs, but to me, this is sort of poor form when winds stated in the advisory are above the threshold for tropical storm strength and the pressure is actually quite a bit lower than it ever was in Barry as a tropical entity, at 992 MB.

Given the remnant low's proximity to the coastline right now, could it actually get out over water and re-acquire tropical characteristics? On the visible loop I thought it was doing just this, but the IR loop shows no convection near the center, but I think a case could be made that given the location and strength, the low is in fact a "subtropical" storm right now.

Edit: Just pulled up the Wilmington, NC, radar. It shows a poorly defined circulation, but a circulation nonetheless, southeast of Wilmington - offshore - moving in toward Wilmington.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 03 2007 12:55 PM)


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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Hugh]
      #75375 - Sun Jun 03 2007 01:06 PM

I don't think the low has enough time over water needed to regain tropical characteristics especially with it being so poorly defined (the center). I just may be wrong but it's only my one cent.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75376 - Sun Jun 03 2007 01:14 PM

Quote:

I don't think the low has enough time over water needed to regain tropical characteristics especially with it being so poorly defined (the center). I just may be wrong but it's only my one cent.




You're probably right, especially given the water temps aren't as high in this area I imagine, but it's definately looking like an interesting Nor'easter setting up.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Something? [Re: Hugh]
      #75386 - Mon Jun 04 2007 02:23 PM

There is a good flare-up off the tip of the Yucatan(about the same spot where Barry got started).Does anybody have a stats on this.Does not look like there is much shear at all.Maybe something to watch? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Jun 04 2007 02:29 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Something? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #75388 - Mon Jun 04 2007 03:40 PM

It's nothing to worry about, just an afternoon convective flare up from a trough.

Looking around, everything seems quiet for at least a week and probably longer, nothing looks impending. No real waves, nothing really lingering around either.

The atlanta area finally got some rain, at least enough to give the ground a little to sip on. South Georgia and Florida got some critically needed rain.

Now another good soaking would be nice. Just don't see anything coming down the pipe.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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