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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3955
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Barry Gone, Quiet Again
      #75390 - Mon Jun 04 2007 06:27 PM

Barry has come and gone, giving Florida a good dose of rain, anywhere from 1 to 5 inches depending on what part. A lot of rain near Jacksonville and the Bugaboo fires, enough to dampen a lot of that fire activity. In all, Barry was a benefit rather than a detriment to Florida.

The rest of the Atlantic, and Caribbean and Gulf (Where most of the June storms form) is high on shear and low on chances for development, so it looks like the next week or so will be fairly quiet. Beyond that, it's the realm of speculation.

We'll continue to watch the tropics in case anything changes, but it looks good for the foreseeable future.

The next storm name up is Chantal.

For Floridians, a sales tax holiday began on June 1st and lasts until midnight on June 12th, you can get the following hurricane related items sans sales tax in this time:

  • Flashlights and other portable, self-powered light sources - $20 or less
  • Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios - $75 or less
  • Tarps - $50 or less
  • Gas or diesel fuel containers - $25 or less
  • Batteries - $30 or less (AAA, AA, C and D cell, and 6 and 9 volt batteries)
  • Non-electrical food storage coolers - $30 or less
  • Portable generators - $1,000 or less
  • Carbon monoxide detectors - $75 or less
  • Storm shutter devices - $200 or less


Radar Loops
Key West, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Northwest, FL Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: MikeC]
      #75413 - Wed Jun 06 2007 05:16 PM

A few posts were shuffled off to the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum - see that Forum for details.
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
graveyard [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75416 - Wed Jun 06 2007 06:58 PM

does everybody else's forum page have all the posters titled 'no matter' and the graveyard emblem next to it? something broke, looks like. unless it's just me.
horizon looks fairly empty. the models are wishy-washy on how the ingredients will mesh early next week near the sw caribbean. dependent on which run and which model, there looks to be decent surface convergence, a slackening of the trades, and upper ridging induced by an upper trough digging near cuba and perhaps snapping. not a whole lot of consensus and it looks like a real long-shot. big upper trough cutting off the east coast next week will likely have its dynamics too far north to induce one of those spin-down hybrids. long-range modeling is tipping back and forth over the 500-mb pattern near north america, so can't really say whether we'll see another amplified-jumble pattern like the ones that have caused our first two (hybrid) tropical cyclones this season. don't expect anything if we get into a progressive zonal pattern.
HF 2358z06june

(Thanks for the heads-up. Problem has been fixed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 06 2007 11:18 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #75435 - Thu Jun 07 2007 02:16 PM

Both the NAM & GFS are developing a weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Is this the next tropical system to watch? Big blow-up of convection in the Bahamas today with some cc turning on VIS SAT. NWS Tampa Bay discusses it below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ON THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CENTRAL AREAS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN FA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THAT REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO ON FRIDAY...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA SATURDAY
IS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY/ORGANIZATION REMAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. ATTM...WILL TREND POPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY. NAMELY...GFS AND NAM...WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRES IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...
DRIFT IT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON WHERE THIS WAVE WILL BE DRIFTING
AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PCPN WOULD OCCUR.

--------------------
RJB


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3955
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: Ron Basso]
      #75436 - Thu Jun 07 2007 02:30 PM

Quote:

Both the NAM & GFS are developing a weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Is this the next tropical system to watch? Big blow-up of convection in the Bahamas today with some cc turning on VIS SAT. NWS Tampa Bay discusses it below.




I'll leave this topic open for discussion on potential new systems, the Bahamas seems like a stretch right now for tropical development. It may help keep us wet in Florida.

If the model runs persist through tomorrow, then we have something. It looks interesting at least.


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #75438 - Thu Jun 07 2007 03:23 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
232 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2007


IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS
RUN...THE GFS AND REGIONAL NAM MODELS NOW DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT 60-72 HRS THEY FORECAST THIS
LOW TO MIGRATE SOUTH TO WESTERN CUBA. THE LOW WILL SUSTAIN A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48-72 HRS.

THIS FEATURE WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 42-48
HRS...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND BAHAMA
AND GREAT ABACO. ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA IT WILL FAVOR K INDEX
VALUES OF 32-36...AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CUBA..


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #75439 - Thu Jun 07 2007 03:27 PM

hmm.. nice blow up of convection this afternoon... over the Bahama's
Sat VIS... based on surface flow, should bring some showers to south Florida. Been watching the NAM, and really haven't seen any other model support jump on it. Upper level winds appear not that hostile right now in that general area. Something to watch. Waters are warm in that area. July will be here soon!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75441 - Thu Jun 07 2007 04:29 PM

based on the upper air data i have seen, it appears that there is a weak circulation over Florida in the upper to middle levels now. Kinda starting to see it in the WV channel sats, too. Looking at NAM and GFS, appears the low will drift down towards Cuba then towards Cancun, at the upper levels.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75443 - Thu Jun 07 2007 08:14 PM

I'm sorry, I'm not understanding the time frame. Is this supposed to be for this weekend, or next weekend that they're talking on the model runs?

I just got a gust of wind and looked at the radar and it's really flared up all over the state. Is this just normal diurnal (sp?) rain or is this associated with this feature you're discussing?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay 27.85N 82.63W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: madmumbler]
      #75448 - Thu Jun 07 2007 10:30 PM

do you have a website for the model runs on this system? I have the http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ site but that doesn't show anything. If someone could let me know I would greatly appreciate it.

thanks

--------------------
~jess~



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: West FL Jess]
      #75450 - Thu Jun 07 2007 11:25 PM

Most of the information from the models can be found at the following link.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu

Scroll down to the bottom portion of the page. Some of the links are out dated.
As always, check the dates of the model run.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #75454 - Fri Jun 08 2007 08:23 AM

I got my question answered this morning -- both NBC2 in Ft. Myers and TWC in their 6 a.m. hour Tropical Update mentioned the upper level low. They both said the predicted result will be an increase in weekend showers, but neither indicated any reasonable chance of developing into anything other than a rain system.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: madmumbler]
      #75459 - Fri Jun 08 2007 04:16 PM

GFS (00Z) and CMC (12Z) show a possible surface reflection off the NW tip of the Yucatan toward the end of their runs (generally moving off to the west south of the TX/Mexico border). With the upper low backing SW from the Tip of Florida, my guess is that the models are sniffing out possible development in the SW Gulf in the middle of next week. That's the only thing of interest I can find near to the US right now. As to whether anything comes of this or not, stay tuned.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: Steve]
      #75460 - Fri Jun 08 2007 09:14 PM

NAM also sniffing out something in the northern BOC/Western Gulf toward the end of its run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: madmumbler]
      #75461 - Fri Jun 08 2007 11:55 PM

Quote:

I got my question answered this morning -- both NBC2 in Ft. Myers and TWC in their 6 a.m. hour Tropical Update mentioned the upper level low. They both said the predicted result will be an increase in weekend showers, but neither indicated any reasonable chance of developing into anything other than a rain system.




For future knowledge, TUTTs (or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) have a very long gestation period before they will convert to warm core; doing so through the entire depth of the troposphere (the region of the atmosphere between ~ the 100mb level and the surface) is an undertaking. While TUTTs, the clouds and shower activity are being driven by deep layer instability, in the form of cold air and associated low pressure aloft promoting lift, resulting convection and thunderstorms. But, the physics of this process are completely different than the physics of tropical cyclone genesis.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Jun 08 2007 11:56 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Week Ahead [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75463 - Sat Jun 09 2007 06:54 AM

Checking the morning Area Forecast Discussions- from San Juan, PR through FL and west to New Orleans,LA.

Only New Orleans gave the GFS model a mention for the week ahead in the Tropics area.
Excerpt from AFD NWS Slidell,LA

GFS GENERATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE... PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE DEVELOPED... FRIDAY NEAR WEST CUBA.
GFS HAS A KNACK FOR DEVELOPING SPURIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT PATTERN SORT OF FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WAVE AT THAT LATITUDE.
WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS... BUT LOCALLY THE RESULT COULD BE A TIGHTENING OF EASTERLY GRADIENT FOR NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RENEW HIGH TIDE ISSUES IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&max=61 (time sensitve link)

Current water vapor and IR imagery indicate an area of Thunderstorms to the east of the Windward Islands. Persistance over the last 7 hours. (through 10Z 6am EDT). To the west of this area in the Eastern/Central Caribbean Sea is another weaker wave, barely visible on most imagery. These locations are evident in the "thumbnail" view in the top right corner of the page.
With the Windward Isles area being the more pronounced. I checked the morning Tropical Weather Discussion and TPC mentions these two areas, along with yet another wave near longitude 10W, just off the African Coast.
Using the 06Z upper air maps (great tools) one can see that the lower 850mb (5000ft level) winds in the Caribbean are easterly at 10kts. (The bold '10' is the windspeed). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
However the upper level, 200mb winds are from the west at 30 kts. (read as 'wind shear', blowing the tops off of the higher clouds). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

POINT SALINES,GRENADA TGPY 12.00N 061.47W
09/1000Z 06010KT 6000ft -SHRA VCSH BKN015 BKN280 27/25 Q1012 JP-N/NE
(wind NE at 11mph, Clouds at 6000ft, rain showers and showers in the vicinity, broken cloud layer at 1500ft and at 2800ft, temp 27C/ dew point 25C barometer 1012mb and lightning observed North through NE
(wind has changed from due East at 08Z, ENE at 09Z, and now NE at 10Z. Termed a backing wind, or counterclockwise wind.)
Observations are not entirely indicative of a tropical wave at Grenada.. but are consistant with most tropical wave observations.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75464 - Sat Jun 09 2007 09:03 AM

Quote:

For future knowledge, TUTTs (or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) have a very long gestation period before they will convert to warm core; doing so through the entire depth of the troposphere (the region of the atmosphere between ~ the 100mb level and the surface) is an undertaking. While TUTTs, the clouds and shower activity are being driven by deep layer instability, in the form of cold air and associated low pressure aloft promoting lift, resulting convection and thunderstorms. But, the physics of this process are completely different than the physics of tropical cyclone genesis.




So we (Florida) are in the TUTT? So are all TUTTs cold air? And is that what they mean when they refer to cyclones as "warm core?"

I watched it on radar yesterday as it unfolded. We had a wicked line of storms come through late yesterday. I could see the faint spin between the satellite and the radar. It was interesting to see how the afternoon "flare up" (the traditional line of storms down the ridge of the state from the seabreeze) just bloomed and then sort of merged and started moving with the stuff generated by the low.

Thank you for taking the time to explain that to me. I appreciate knowledge on this board!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Week Ahead [Re: danielw]
      #75469 - Sat Jun 09 2007 04:35 PM

This is from the NHC:
Quote:


205 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007
--snipped--
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z SFC MAP OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA ALONG 14W/15W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15-20
KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OR PSN OF THIS
WAVE WITH A LARGE AREA...ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE...OF
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO SOME DEGREE IN QSCAT DATA. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 7N WHICH MAY BE ADDED TO THE
18Z ANALYSIS. SFC OBS...MOSTLY STATIONS OVER AFRICA...CLEARLY
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WITH 24-H PRES DROPS IN THE 2-4 MB RANGE
IN DAKAR AND SURROUNDING CITIES. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-19W.




The only reason I'm asking is because TWC mentioned it in either their 2 or 3 pm Tropical Update. And the emphasis was on, "Low pressure systems don't usually survive when they come across from Africa," like it was a different feature than a "normal" tropical wave.

Are the pressure drops they're talking about "significant" or are they just mentioning them because they actually have surface observations due to it forming on shore?

I know we look to the BOC, GOM, and Carribbean this time of year, and I'm not saying I think this one is going to turn into anything either. I'm just wondering is it normal to see a feature this large come off Africa this time of year, and historically have any Cape Verde storms come across the Atlantic this time of year?

I guess what I'm asking is, is this an anomaly, or is it an interesting but nothing to worry about feature, or is it totally normal and NOT anomalous, or is it something we should keep an eye on (NOT wishcasting!!), or where does it exactly fit into the scheme of things? How do we separate the "don't worry about it" from the "keep an eye on it?"

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Week Ahead [Re: madmumbler]
      #75472 - Sat Jun 09 2007 05:41 PM

Every wave has some chance of developing, all the way from 0% to 100%. Long range forecasting isn't much more than a guessing game. Even during the Cape Verde "season", healthy looking strong waves that come off of Africa fizzle out. And the opposite is also true, almost invisible waves end up developing a week or two later when they get into the Caribbean. The NHC tracks every wave, but that doesn't mean it will ever be anything, in fact most of them never amount to much at all. In other words, the difference between "keep an eye on" and "not to worry" for waves doesn't mean much, particularly that far out.

Bill


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 1671
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Week Ahead [Re: madmumbler]
      #75473 - Sat Jun 09 2007 06:08 PM

The "wave" which just rolled off Africa is an especially impressive one, especially for this time of year, but nothing outlandishly out of the ordinary, either. There appeared and still appears to already exist a low to mid-level low center. Really, a very well organized thunderstorm cluster altogether when it came off the coast, complete with turning at the very least in the mid-levels, and some pretty decent outflow in the upper-levels. However, now it has the look of having lost most of it's deep convection. Will be waiting for the next satellite pass for any indications of having held together, structurally, and of deep convection ever coming back.

Certainly would have caught TWC's eye as a feature worth drawing the camera to, if not much else.. for the moment. Still, that feature is first-rate eastern Atlantic eye candy for the month of June, if you are into satellite images.

These waves which roll off the west coast of Africa and head our way during the season usually either fizzle out on their own, or get ingested and digested by amplified patterns and associated shear over the Atlantic, long before they have much chance to become anything more than a feature to watch. Several more just keep on keeping on westward, never decaying, but never amounting to much, either. These sometimes go on to become the fruits of East Pac named storms, of course.

While we're on the topic, NASA undertook a very impressive research project of easterly waves last year, (NAMMA), which provided an abundance of material for them to study for years and years to come. If you are interested in reading even more about the study you can still find some archived material from the actual real-time NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses here.

Also, we might comment more on the Caribbean to SE Gulf region, later. It is flaring up quite nicely today. Neither the trof east of Florida/Caribbean flareup, or the eastern Atlantic wave, are of any imminent concern to NHC, but then again their intensities and/or organization attest to more than some "wave mongering" over "blobs." There might be more to either or both of them in time.


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