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Archives >> 2007 Forecast Lounge

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Possible Southern GOM low on long-range models?
      #75519 - Tue Jun 12 2007 09:44 PM

I was just looking at the long range runs for the GFS and NAM and they seem to show something forming between the Yucatan and Cuba in about 4-5 days. Doesn't look like anything BIG but looks like an area of low pressure which could mean more rain for Florida. But then I looked at the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields site and they don't show anything, at least for the Sea Level Pressure run. Am I reading these things wrong, or am I comparing apples to oranges? We have had some pretty good rains in places this week, but still need a couple more good soakings to get lake and river levels where they need to be. Plus I would like to have a head start on weekend plans Thanks for your input.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Possible Southern GOM low on long-range models? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #75525 - Wed Jun 13 2007 10:12 AM

Lane told me the best rule of thumb is to watch the 850 level vorticity runs. If they maintain over several days, then it's something to keep an eye on.

I did notice a feature on one of them starting around the Yucatan Peninsula, but not all the models are showing it.

All I know is it's RAINING here this morning -- yay!!!!!

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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Possible Southern GOM low on long-range models? [Re: madmumbler]
      #75532 - Thu Jun 14 2007 09:49 AM

Still seeing indications of something in this area on several of the models. TV weather this am has begun talkling about a low forming and moving across the Fla Staits to the south of the state by this weekend, but I haven't seen that particular track on any models I have looked at. except maybe the GFS long range slp model. GFDL and CMC seem to show a low moving up the GOM into Louisiana or north Fla. Nice blow-up of convection south of the Yucatan channel overnight, but not a lot of spin yet. My cyclone-sense is tingling a bit and this area needs to be watched. Water temps in the GOM have risen solidly the past 2 weeks into the low 80s and shear is modest to the north of its present locale, so keep an eye out!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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