MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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8PM Thursday Update
Active tropical wave, with perhaps a weak mid-level circulation, centered just off the northeast borders of Nicaragua/Honduras should move to the west northwest toward northern Belize. Shows some signs of improving outflow to the north, but windshear of 30-35kts just north of the wave is expected to remain at that strength for the next couple of days. Pretty low on the development scale, but we'll watch it for awhile.
Honduras
Weak non-tropical low about stationary just off Jacksonville, Florida, is forecast to elongate and weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. Windshear over the system is light and forecasted to stay that way, but convection was minimal today - a long shot at best.
ED
Florida
8AM Saturday Update
This system has moved east, and never did the northwestern jog talked about, It's chance to develop in the Caribbean or Gulf is gone, and it's become more of a trough of low pressure. It did not show any signs of development yesterday and still isn't this morning.
It is likely nothing will happen with this system. Behind it, nothing else really has much potential to develop. June is usually a fairly quiet month and activity doesn't start to pick up until late July or August. Despite having two named systems already this year, it's climatologically likely that it will be slow for the rest of this month. We'll be watching, however.
Original Update
An disturbed weather area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea has kicked up enough for the Hurricane Center to consider flying aircraft into it tomorrow, and we'll be watching it from here.
Currently, the winds in the upper atmosphere aren't really conductive for development, but it may change. If this area of low pressure persists into later tomorrow, the winds relax and the potential for development is greater. However, it is projected to drift northwest over the tip of the Yucatan in the short term, so that would also prevent Development from occurring.
Most models have it moving into the Gulf and Florida and the central to eastern Gulf states will want to be watching to see how much, if any, this develops. More rain will be involved at the very least.
More to come as more is learned.
94L (New System links may not yet be updated) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 94L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 21 2007 09:53 PM)
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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
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Just my 2 cents but if it doesn't "do" anything by tonight at ear;iest through Friday morning you can go ahead and hang it up pn 94L. I say this because the winds aren't terribly unfavorable but it does have a small window of opp. to go ahead and focus. If it does organize it will be a weak TS at best (if that). I honestly don't see it even becoming a TD unless they pull another "Barry" and just go ahead and name it.
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dem05
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I have to agree with the on this one. The Upper level winds will begin to slacken as we move into tomorrow afternoon, and could become more and more favorable as we move through Friday night and into the weekend. Last night, I made refernce to an upper level low to the west of theYucatan as well as some other upper level features. Last nights post reflected more on the idea that the upper level low west of the Yucatan and could aid in some weak development (at the time, I was saying in about 48 hours). As we can see this evening, the upper level low did not remain planted to the west of the Yucatan. In fact, the the upper trough over Florida seems to have grabbed that upper low and has pulled it off to the east north east. At this time, the upper level low is presently over 94L and is on it's way out.
While this upper level low is harming 94L's opportunity to become better organized at this time, it is moving out fairly quickly and should not overly harm the basic dynamics that are permitting this surface area of low pressure (94L) in the western Carribean. As the upper level low departs to the ENE, there is an area of ridging and lighter upper winds across the western GOMex and Mexico that will have an opportunity to fill in behind the cutoff. With that said, this air mass is a bit "arid", but the winds will become more favorable over the Western Carribean and the Eastern Gulf. I know I have seen tropical systems that developed while working with less. Tropical Storm in 2005 is not a bad example. So with that said, I would not write this one off if it does not develop in the next 24 hours and I believe that tomorrow night into Saturday will be more interesting with respect to development opportunities.
P.S. The Water Vapor Link demonstrates tonight's observations pretty good: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Just in quick addition to the previous post. The weather analysis identifies surface low pressure area over the western Carribean as an elongated system. The Fronts analys is on the carribean satellite loops identifies the a 1006 mb Low off of Cozumel and a1007 mb low north of Hondorus within this elongated system. With this upper level air pattern, even though the area north of Hondorus has slightly higher pressure, what originates from there will likely be a better area to watch than the 1006mb low off of Cozumel.
Shortwave Link (Hint, click on the Fronts at the top of the satellite loop image to observe the orientation of these two surface lows within the trough): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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I generally read the situation unfolding similar to Dem, above. With not only the old cut-off which had been stationed over the NW tip of the Yucatan pulling out to the ENE, but the entire slew of upper level devils embedded within the very large troff which have been collectively bringing severe weather to much of the east coast this week also on their way to slowly pulling out, the surface troffiness which is now tagged as 94L may begin to pull northward, or either side of northward (my best guess at this time is a little more off to the NNE, much as several model runs have already indicated ).
However, a lot of this - whatever "this" ends up being - is really dependent on just which part of the surface low pressure troffiness actually takes hold (if any). For example, if we see the southern Caribbean pop more impressively, we could watch as something cooks a while longer, becomes stronger before heading north - or, conversely, just simply scooting over Central America and out into the East Pac. To qualify, this area is not currently tagged as being 94L, but has had a fleeting LLC this past week along the base of the parent trof, just the same.
Should the feature remain quite shallow and form a bit to the north - about where the two centers of lower pressure have recently been analyzed to be - I suspect "this" could even drift off to the northwest, being pulled along within a weak LLJ towards Texas or western Louisiana.
Then there is that development of choice, or what has been up until today, anyhow - a weak warm-core depression heading north or northeast.
Of course, all of these still remain low probabilities, but plain and simple, odds favor that 94Ls chances for further development go up once all that mess of ULLs and their associated 30 to 60 knot winds o' shredding pull further out of it's picture. If anything, if something really does get going here, a little bit of that ULL energy off to the northeast could make for a convenient source of outflow - bears watching.
By the way, I found a nugget of sorts in tonight's "corrected" . Here's what I found a little interesting:
"...CORRECTED TO ADD ELSEWHERE IN THE LAST SENTENCE...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
Make of that what you will. I do take it to mean that (or at the very least JB) does intend to convey that the area of disturbed weather (94L) may become a TC -within- 48 hours. This position would make quite a bit of sense actually, especially given the explicit heads-up to a possible recon as early as tomorrow afternoon, and the statements of an expected improving upper level environment.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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I understand what you're saying Demo and Cieldumort but on sat. 94L looks a big unorganized complete mess! I know you really shouldn't compare TC because they are their own individual "animals" so I won't compare. As much of a mess and unimpressive as it looks is recon still schedule to fly into 94L and if they are then why? and what do you both think they will find out there?
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W.D. Duncan
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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I just read Dr. Master's blog and he feels like the recon will be canceled today and set up again for Sat. He also, feels like the winds in the northern gulf will be too strong so it will be at best another Barry a good rain maker but winds may get up to 50mph at best. I see where he is getting this from and have to agree I feel like this will be another Barry a good rainmaker and a storm that should have had sub tropical in front of it's name because it was but didn't. Found out recon is scheduled for 2pm but don't see it happening since it's stil disorganized and winds read at 15mph associated with the "disturbance". Winds will be calming though so yes Sat & Sunday are the 2 big days for the disturbance it's possible for it to develope.
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W.D. Duncan
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I don't agree with Masters. He's a good meteorologist but needs to really look at the storms before he makes his judgements on them. 94L on the other hand, looks bad this morning BUT recon is a go right now and the main reason for recon still on tabs is to find a center of circulation, not to see if it is a deppression or storm. So soon we will know where the real circualtion is from the Hurricane Hunters. I wasn't trying to bash Masters, it's like wunderground bloggers worship him when most of the time, his predictions are wrong. I think we will see a better looking disturbance tomorrow morning or maybe this evening as i'm seeing convection developing near the real center.
(As noted below, the recon for today has been cancelled - there is simply nothing there worthy of further investigation. I am relieved that you were not trying to bash Dr Masters because most of the time you feel that his predictions are wrong - because otherwise, I'd have to remove your post - and using your same reasoning it would be a violation of site rules for anyone to bash you. The windshear in the basin suggests to me that tropical cyclone development is not likely for at least a week.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 15 2007 11:01 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Regarding the use of the term 'elsewhere', this is standard practice in the whenever the has highlighted one or more areas in the Outlook. Its just proper english, nothing more, to signify that beyond the areas that have been mentioned, there are no other areas of concern in the basin. Here is a snippet from the Outlook issued on June 1st, prior to the formation of Barry to illustrate the point:
"...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
The statement does not imply that tropical cyclone development is expected for the areas that were discussed - it only means that these areas have the potential for development OR that the is monitoring these areas.
From the TC Plan of the Day: "INVEST FOR 15/1800Z IN GULF OF MEXICO
CANCELED BY AT 15/1235Z."
Please do not post comments on the economical virtues of RECON on the Main Page - at best, these belong in the E&N Forum. Remember that the Plan of the Day is simply just that - its a Plan. must schedule for these Air Force Reserve resources (aircraft and personnel) in advance of any anticipated need. These requests are often cancelled during the course of a season when the area of initial concern does not develop further.
ED
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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
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GFS seems to be showing this system not developing much until after it's moved over FL. What are the chances of having something of a hybrid system develop, assuming that the upper level winds cooperate soon enough? Maybe becoming Barryish and dumping FL with more rain?
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"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."
2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I continue to feel that it is premature to completely write off any disturbance in the area south of Cuba however it is becoming more evident that the feature being tracked between the Yucatan and the area S. of Cuba is failing to develop. It appears the Recon that was scheduled for later today has been canceled for good reason. The latest surface analysis suggests that the two low pressure areas near the Yucatan are dissipating. Satellite still shows some convective activity but not directly associated with the low pressure centers. WV loops show the moisture migrating to the north has regressed somewhat. As there is a tropical wave approaching this area and a weak trough remains, and the SSTs are now high enough to provide energy for some development, I would continue to watch the area but for now I'm not even sure we will even get the badly needed rain I was looking for earlier. It could still happen but my thinking is not this time from this system.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WANING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 42-48 HRS AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
AT LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTEND FROM GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 48-54 HRS... THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-YUCATAN-NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
Sat imagery through 1825Z 225pmEDT is showing light winds in the NW Caribbean. Sea breeze front moving onshore over the Eastern Yucatan Coast.
There is possibly a broad area of lower pressure and an ever so slight broad circulation visible . Between the Yucatan Channel and the Honduran Coast.
The Sun is nearly overhead lending to cloud shadows on the surface.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
Unless a shortwave can swing through the Eastern GOM, I don't see much chance of the Upper FL Peninsula getting more than the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Just a quick roundup. I'm not a MET and I didn't stay at Holiday Inn last night
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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I hate to say it but every time the NWS raises the pops above 60%. It never happens. Yep will have some afternoon showers in S FL this weekend but I think that's it. The bulk of the moisture looks to head east of Florida. Hopefully I'm wrong and the lake gets lots of rain but I don't see it right now. 
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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We'll atleast the miami NWS has changed there tune a bit...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007
.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION
IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS
THE SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE JUST SHOWING THIS
LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND
FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Having been watching this area of lower pressure somewhat closely for going on four, five ? days now, it only seems appropriate to me to see it tagged as an invest. -And- if you take a quick eyeball of the region today without getting into the nitty-gritties it's easy to exclaim, "Ah hah!" But really, the pressure tendencies in the area are nowhere near as impressive as they were around 15 00Z. At that time some area reports were even coming in with some rapidly falling pressures.
Convection appears much more impressive, but as stated elsewhere, a lot of this is likely resulting from diffluence aloft, mostly care of the elongated ULL and the weakening which are still affecting weather in the area. Some hints of a possible surface reflection, tho. Might be something. I guess all of this still just has much more "mongering" flavor to it than I prefer, especially with the upper-levels still close to brutal for tropical cyclone development. Eh.
Nonetheless, having yet again qualified and justified actually watching this feature, it's interesting to note that the earlier run did make a very strong tropical storm out of "it" and now the very latest run develops a bona fide surface low in the area. Other hints of a good moisture surge and pulling northeastward of the entire . Yet more hints of the ULLs pulling even farther away still. Good convection already exists. One could almost talk themselves into believing some of the more outrageous model runs on it... assuming an active imagination.
Should at least become somewhat helpful to see what starts happening in the big regional picture over the next 24 hours, as to just which way the synoptic environment for 94L ultimately turns. Either way, I think it seems plausible that at least SoFlo gets some decent moisture import in part care of 94L, in one form or another.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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The thing here to remember when reading the discussion is to READ them.. and we tend to want to read into them what we think or want to see.
What did they say when they first brought this up officially..
Conditions might be more favorable in 48 hours.
It looked crummy yesterday, diffuse last night and this morning.. oddly it looks better tonight.
You can at least see the spot where the "center" for lack of a better word where the disturbance is vs the rain that keeps getting blown off to the ne. I'd call it more an impulse, anchored there sort of... the water vapor shows it well as does the other shortwave loop. Warning..the visible will make you go blurry eyed if you keep zooming in.
So... I guess we will see tomorrow morning if they were right and if conditions will be more favorable for development.
Good comment on the front page of this board about watching and learning.
Up til the last few hours I would have laughed the possible system off... I think something *might* be happening.
Keep watching..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Note the frontal boundary there is changing, air currents are changing and I think shear is getting lighter.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I agree, a very small yet clear circulation has formed just east of where the invest was yesterday.. very small with some convection on the southeast side. Everybody is yet again on wunderground killing it BUT isn't this the time of day where convection would decrease? A blow up may occur tonight near wherever the real low is forming and could be looking impressive in the morning, or it could do nothing and just be rain for south and central Florida. I'm leaning towards development 
Oh and it also has to have structure, and with structure comes weakening convection.. I think it's trying to form a low pressure structure right now.. again, we'll see what happens.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Actually, the diurnal cycle of diminished convection on a tropical storm or better tends to occur in the early morning and flare up at night. This system may have a low attached to it, but most of the convection does not appear to have any rain in it. It also appears to be trailing the last front unless the satellites I am looking at are older than 4 hours.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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A bit of a shock to run the on this system and see that IT shows a pretty solid low pressure center moving directly over top of me in 36-48 hours (Tampa area). There is VERY little on the satellites in that area right now and all the convection has been drawn off to the east in the trough. I had a feeling about this area earlier in the week (see forcast lounge), but it really doesn't look like much at this point. Be nice to have a solid rain event out of it though. We'll keep watching 
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i've been highly preoccupied for about a week, just took a couple of glances at 94L. it never had a whole lot going for it, because west-east oriented upper shear jets that don't try to split or curl up into upper lows are the bane of tropical cyclones. doesn't help that the surface convergence the thing was generating is way out under the rough shear, with a lot of the convection firing elsewhere. it's all migrating out into the atlantic past the bahamas now, and the synoptic pattern isn't budging.
this upper pattern has held sway longer than expected. right now there's still an upper low stuck in the red river valley, giving east texas a daily dose of rain, with a large upper trough stuck near the east coast. it rained here or near here pretty much every day this week, with the peculiar thing being the thunderstorms coming down from the northeast and north--not the usual for this time of year. until the pattern decides to budge or reorient i can't see much of anything developing. the upper vortices and shortwaves are generally staying too far to the north to undergo hybrid development, and their effect is to produce daunting amounts of shear in the favored june development regions.
the only thing of interest on the horizon is that several of the forecast models (albeit, not all) are showing a weakness in the eastern gulf late next week from a shortwave that snaps off, appearing to close and retrograde. the gulf is warm enough to work a storm out of that sort of happenstance, but a couple more days of models showing this, and a growing bandwagon are still in order to get truly interested. it is the sort of thing you'd look for this time of year, at least.
there's one other thing of late that has me wondering what we're in for this year. global tropical cyclone activity has been on the down low for months. the westpac is having a persistent, non-starter pattern and isn't likely to get much seasonal-scale help with the weak la-nina signature in the tropical pacific, the southern hemisphere seasons were fairly blunt and not terribly active earlier, and the only places that so far seem to have shown any vigor have been the atlantic and north indian ocean. gonu was sort of a freak and i don't know what can be said for it's implications, but with the atlantic so far acting a bit more perky than normal, the eastpac sort of trudging, and the western pacific not doing much of anything to evacuate all that latent heat building in the tropics, i'm wondering if the atlantic is going to take up the job later.
of course, there have been years where global tropical cyclone activity was just inexplicably down (see 1977). normally, though, you'd expect to see some basins really rocking, and others sort of snoozing. seeing the atlantic try to make up for the balance and go hyper-active this year wouldn't surprise me a heck of a lot.
HF 1521z16june
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