allan
Weather Master
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Hmm nothing early this morning but something is going on near that same circulation I pointed out yesterday.. a blow up.. this late lol?? Wow, something to really keep an eye on.. it's finally seperated from the trough and it could become a TD soon.. even though says it won't.. just something to keep an eye on, would'nt write it off yet... at least the navy hasn't. The IR is showing some nice convection around the little spin.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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where are you talking about Allan? By the Yucitan? Only area I see that could develop (nontropical) is near the bahamas heading out into the atlantic. Yucatan is at the tail end of the convergence. Pressures are up actually in that area.
(personal inquiry removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 17 2007 04:02 AM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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Allan I'd like to know also, what area you are talking about thats soon to be a TD? I can't find any mention of such an area on the NWS site or on any other site.
When you have a question such as the above, PM the poster.
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jun 17 2007 01:10 PM)
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danielw
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Please be sure to check the time stamps on your satellite imagery.
As of 0430Z,12:30 AM EDT, Wednesday, June 20th. The satellite imagery for the SSD Gulf of Mexico has not updated since 1130Z, or 6:30AM EDT, Tuesday.
The other... few links that I have checked appear to be working.
Thankfully there aren't a lot of convective areas to be watching.~danielw
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HanKFranK
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there's a weak front pushing off the southeast coast right now. models vary on whether to leave any of the upper energy behind or to take it out and flatten the trough base. most do very little with it, slowly washing it out near florida over the next couple of days. worth a glance, since these things occasionally stir up trouble. some of the globals are pushing a surface impulse up from the western caribbean towards the lower mississippi valley over the next week or so, also with no fanfare. unless one of these little buggers makes a noteworthy effort, we might slide into july with just barry having spawned in june.
HF 2210z20june
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Storm Hunter
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This low in the southeast will need to be watched... i am a little interested in it when enters the GOM... it appears to be moving in the SW direction... Just might be something to watch over the next few days... i don't expect much of it right now... neither do the models... but looks like the only thing to watch over the next couple of days... all signs point to a strong high building out in the Atlantic... see what becomes of it. (aka... more focused on the Carb. and GOM) 
**Sorry Hank...posted about the samething just right before me.. lol
Thinking the same, watching the end of this front might just be the only game we have to watch for the couple of days.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jun 20 2007 09:16 PM)
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ltpat228
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I deleted my post as cieldumort was kind enough to PM and answer my questions.
I don't know how to delete my post completely so hopefully one of the MODs will.
Edited by ltpat228 (Wed Jun 20 2007 10:49 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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No, it has nothing to do with that. 94L was an area of interest associated with some potential (6 days ago) that never materialized. Nothing of much interest at the moment and, as mentioned above, will probably stay that way for the remainder of the month.
ED
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danielw
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After quickly checking various model outputs. The only mention of a tropical system... at any level. Was from 3 sources.
The Weather Channel, New Orleans NWS office and the Lake Charles NWS Office. The only other NWS Offices that I checked were Jackson,MS and Mobile,AL.
At this time none of the HPC Forecast discussions mention anything in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean. Other than diurnal thunderstorms.
New Orleans has the best mention with the system forecast to move around the western edges of the High pressure ridge.
From present postion to just over/ near the Yucatan Peninsula, to the Texas/ Western Louisiana area... By Sunday.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&max=61
None of the current (through 12Z) models are depicting any increase in intensity beyond the current MCS type system.
Stay tuned. Now back to the FL Mid-Upper Low just east of Jacksonville...
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Lamar-Plant City
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Daniel, I was just looking at that system near the Yucatan and through my amateur eyes it sure looks to be developing a nice upper level outflow around the system. On the current satellite it looks very tropical except for a lack of easily seen spin. Those upper level clouds, though, look very similar to what you would see over a nicely formed tropical storm or weak hurricane, especially on the north side....or am I crazy? I don't want to be accused of rumor-mongering, but it looks WAY more interesting than any of the models are suggesting it should look. Also pressures seem to be falling at the two buoys in that are of the Caribbean (PTDY on both is a -0.03). Last night and earlier today, I would have said it was moving mostly wnw toward Nicaragua/Honduras, but in the last several hours it looks more due northwest and it has some solid convection from the north side to the south east. IS this something we should be watching more closely? One thing I have learned from this MB is that I don't know as much as I thought I did about monitoring tropical systems.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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cieldumort
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It should be helpful to get a good look at the next QuikSCAT pass over the Caribbean feature. Based on a few area buoy, land and ship reports in the area I glanced-over, there could be some low level turning within the broader cluster. The data is just too sparse and the feature too weak to really make any heads or tails out of it without some help from scat.
I've also noted a few reports of slightly lowering pressures, but nothing at all significant. Again, data being sparse in the area isn't helpful. But, one would sort of expect to see something a little better than a 2mb drop over the course of one full day from a nearby buoy if it were to be getting its act together.
Clearly, its only window for significant development would be if it does in fact jog and/or relocate more over the water - I have also been watching what LPC notes above, with some interest (a possible shift more to the NW than W). And, there is some upper level outflow. This is not altogether unusual, however. Not a "hallmark" of something becoming a tropical cyclone, if you will. Thunderstorm complexes can and do create their own high pressure areas aloft.
Both of these features (Caribbean disturbance & Florida frontal low) did make it into the 5:30 , but without causing a stir. "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."
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dem05
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I agree. I wish we couldget a good GHCC image of the Carribean feature this evening. Tonight will be critical timeframe for getting additional "development possibility" recognition in the . If the thunderstorms we saw in the morning/afternoon hours had continued, we'd likely be seeing that attention now. If the thunderstorms pulsed up tonight, it may look more interesting by the morning. The wave may get some more attention at that time.
With respect to that, there is evidence that another one of those famous cut-offlows in the upper levels is forming smack in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico and slowly moving SE toward the Yucatan and the NW Carribean. Will be curious to see if this remains weak, but the cut off low is really a bit too far to the east to favor development in the WesternCarribean and the GOMex in the coming days, even if things do look good down there right now. If it were not for this feature, I'd say it had a better shot of development...irregardless of the lack of model support. I've seen plenty of tropical systems develop down there after popping up like this disturbance has...and they were able to make it without the model support, but there have been just as many that did not.
As for the "FL Disturbance"...Much more in the way of thunderstorm activity tonight and almost had a low level cloud pattern that resembled the end game version of Andrea earlier today. This shear is hammering the t-storm activity and the overall organization is not improving (probably deteriorating actually). I think the door is closing on this one quickly.
With that said, I give the Carribean a better shot, but the development of the Upper Level Cutoff Low in the GOMex is gonna affect this Carribean wave before that can really occur. If the cutoff does not strengthen further, there may be some baroclinic opprtunities for some weaker-end hybrid or lopsided development if the wave moves Northwest versus westerly into Central America. Westward into Central America or Belize is definately an end game situation. In all likelyhood, if you are hoping to see some development in the tropics, you/we will probably need to ask Bob Barker if you can see "the next item up for bid".
Edited by dem05 (Fri Jun 22 2007 04:26 AM)
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cieldumort
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Well, I'm going to lead off with Florida. It's closer to home, and tonight has had a really nice going of nocturnal convection - offshore - with Melbourne NWS noting that MSAS short-range surface analysis plotting a now definitive surface low center drifting generally southward off the Velusia coast. (Forecast Discussion)
Melbourne Long-Range Radar Loop very interesting.
Satellite loops now indicate significant cloud top cooling offshore, with a sizable area colder than -50C, and a still respectable area less than -60C.
I can not see any reason why this feature should not earn an Invest number by daybreak, if this trend continues. Movement of the low appears to be generally SSE or perhaps with a more easterly component if it jumps to play catchup with the deep convection.
The Caribbean feature. Again, I now see no reason why this feature also should not earn an Invest number by daybreak if its trends of the past 24 hours or so continue for another five or six hours or so. Despite a lack of surface obs and nothing current from QuikSCAT, it is clear in the satellite loops that convection does have at least some turning motion, is really rather deep at times, and upper-level outflow is rather stellar tonight.
While it's easy to see the weak ULL which has formed right smack in the middle of the GOM, I might disagree a bit with Dem, above. I think it is currently too weak to do much harm, given their respective positions, and might suggest that it could even be helping promote this impressive outflow tonight, thereby increasing lower level convergence a bit to the north of where the convergence was occurring earlier, and perhaps dragging the entire system, repeatedly analyzed as a trof with an attendant surface low down around 11N, a notch or two further north, yet - perhaps to even recenter the surface low farther north, as well.
By morning it will become much more clear what is going on with these guys. In my honest estimation, they both probably have a somewhat better chance than what the most recent suggested, and we could see that wording massaged a bit by morning, as Dem suggests above.
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dem05
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With respect to the low off of Volusia/Brevard County on the east coast of Florida...The IR loop of the system looks interesting and the radar shots do as well. However, the shortwave loops paint the true picture of the low pressure structure and the system is washing out. Over time, the low has been elongating east to west and the thunderstorms are peeling off to the east. This system may be nothing more than a stretched trough by the mid-day/afternoon hours tomorrow. Unless major changes happen soon, it is very unlikely that this system will strengthen into something tropical and it will likely fade with time.
Shortwave link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html
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allan
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Well the Carribean storm looks ill but the outflow if impressing! If this thing gains convection which it looks like it is starting to, we could have a nice looking storm on our hands. Wind shear is low with 15-20 knots and water temps are extremely high. Most models do something with it but in the Pacific which I disagree very strongly. Looks like it's headed toward the central/western GOM to me. We'll have to wait and see of course.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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cieldumort
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I guess I sure am glad to say that I qualified my assessment last night to require another five or six hours of development of either or both features before they were worthy of an Invest tag. From the looks of the loops this morning, just about no sooner had I hit enter on my posts, than did the convection of the Caribbean system start dissolve, and the convection of the Florida coast low get blown on out to sea with the high winds it finds itself in. Plus, it has a serious problem with dry, stable air pushing in from the north.
Few things of note, and perhaps anyone would like to offer a different perspective. I agree with others who have already pointed out that the western Caribbean disturbance has probably been pulled something a little north of west (rather than the much-advertised due westward movement) with significant rotation in the low to mid levels noted on the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua, with convection attempting to flare back up generally within that obvious rotation.
With regards to the low east of Florida, most analysis puts the center of the low further east of where it was, and well-east of where it would have been had it been simply drifting south. This location suggests that the convection which flared mightily overnight did in fact flare up along the eastern semicircle, tried to hang on for dear life, got blown away, but at first light today it looks like more convection keeps attempting to flare back up on the outer reaches of the LLC. Unless upper level winds relax, it looks like Dem5 has called its demise about right, and these flareups will represent not much more, if nothing more, than a last gasp before this thing can be chalked up to having gone through the shredder.
Not much else out there. A new flare up north of the Antilles, perhaps. The overall environment, while seemingly a tiny bit better, perhaps - specifically, the moisture content looks a little improved here or there and water temps are up a little - is still unfavorable. The 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies are speaking volumes.
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Well, as of the late morning , it looks like the has pretty much written off the system in the Caribbean. Can't blame them though as the system does not look near as impressive as it did yesterday evening. Also, no weather stations in the area are reporting any significant pressure drops. One thing of interest though is the small flare up of convection near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras. Wind shear remain high though so I don't expect much out of this system.
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Quote:
Wind shear remain high though so I don't expect much out of this system.
Wind shear is low enough to be marginally favorable (15-20 knots). It has a good chance if it continues doing what it's doing. Just something to watch, I'm deffinatly worth an invest at the least but there appears to be no winds at the surface yet according to quickscat. So I would understand why it isn't tagged just yet.
Wind shear as of 12Z - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
Carribean storm - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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weatherguy08
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Yeah, I am also noting a very strong flare up of convection this morning near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras. I mentioned this in my last post but it looks even stronger now. I agree that it should definitely be monitored. Frankly, I don't think the is doing it justice, but it will be interesting to see the afternoon TWD.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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everywhere (site wise) tell me the tropics are quiet and don't look for anything to form or of interest for the next week at least still a few people say the SW caribbean has formed a weak low and convection is refiring so keep an eye on it. I'm confused and yes not experienced with/in wx so what is going on as of right now 1 pm est with the blob in the caribbean? and can you tell me a good site so I can watch it on radar.
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W.D. Duncan
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