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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: danielw]
      #75531 - Thu Jun 14 2007 09:10 AM

HUH? sorry but can you please put all of that in Layman terms so I can understand.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75533 - Thu Jun 14 2007 11:03 AM

Try to look at a water vapor sattelite loop as you read the discussion and then you'll see the features discussed there...basicaly there is what is called "troughiness" in the vernacular across the SE GOM SW ATL and the Cuba/ Yucatan regions. There is a weak surface feature on the N coast of Yucatan, but no upper support due to the dry air in the upper feature it is associated with (TUTT). It will move toward the Bahamas. As it does so the big upper low now dropping off the SE coastline will continue toward the Bahamas. This upper low was responsible for the unstable air that spawned some severe weather in peniinsula Florida yesterday in the wake of a weak back door wind shift line and the infusion of cold dry air into the upper atmosphere. All this is expected to vascilate back and forth over the next several days which would allow for thunderstorms to increase in Florida, as indeed they are predicted to do (40-50% probabilities).
At least that is how I read it and see it in the WV loops.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Jun 14 2007 11:05 AM)


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75534 - Thu Jun 14 2007 11:06 AM

Quote:

HUH? sorry but can you please put all of that in Layman terms so I can understand.


There are two areas of unsettled weather in areas that this time of the year can develop into significant weather affecting or potentially affecting us. One is off the E coast of Fla in the Bahamas. I don't see this as being a problem for numerous reasons but any time there is unsettled weather in this area, you need to at least watch it...just in case. The other area is now a bit south of Cuba and is in an area that could be a little more 'interesting' I think given all of the factors available at this time, the thinking is that this *might* bring a little more rain to the Florida area but conditions are marginal for it to develop into anything you should be afraid of. Again, this time of the year, and in that area, any thing that is unsettled as this is bears watching and regardless of this or any other system, it is prudent to check out your emergency plans and supplies for when and if something does develop.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: doug]
      #75535 - Thu Jun 14 2007 11:09 AM

It's not even an invest area and recon JUST schedualed to go out there and investigate it.. has that ever happened when it was not an invest before?
Anyways.. I think it has a slight chance for development. Shear is very low in the area right now but north of there it is around 30-40 knots. So we will see what happens in the future of what is now an invest area??

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
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Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: allan]
      #75536 - Thu Jun 14 2007 11:14 AM

Here's the thing. We have a disturbed area in the NW Carribean... a few models have been hinting at a weak area of low pressure to develop down near Cuba for a few days now. CMC and what the GFDL was hinting at a tropical storm (possibility) moving thru the EGM by Friday night into Saturday. Last night...we had a low-mid level circulation develop. If the models under-done this just alittle..then we need to go in and get data.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: scottsvb]
      #75537 - Thu Jun 14 2007 11:33 AM

(Do not simply repost tropical bulletins/discussions/forecasts from the NHC - they are always available as drop-down selections at the top of the Main Page.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 14 2007 02:32 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
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Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: allan]
      #75540 - Thu Jun 14 2007 03:59 PM

Recon was scheduled? I don't see it on the Atlantic requirements anywhere.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #75541 - Thu Jun 14 2007 04:24 PM

1000 AM EDT THU 14 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 15/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

I think the take-away is really this:
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


Some perspective, perhaps -

The fact of the matter is a low-level to surface trof has been in the western Caribbean in one form or another for a few days now. Recently, a surface low center has developed in the extreme northwestern Caribbean - just about where GFDL and CMC expected it to. Both of those models forecast a warm-core depression, perhaps a weak TS.

If one was to give equal weight to all of the most often cited models, there would be an expectation of a 1 in 4 chance of a TC forming in that general area by the end of this weekend, or so. Given the big picture, and that backdrop, NHC certainly is keeping an eye on this. However, as they state, upper-level winds are not favorable for development. This is not to say that something doesn't pop. It does suggest that anything which tries to get going, as is indeed the case, will have an unusually difficult time pulling it off.

Edited for clarity-

Simply because a feature has a less than an ideal environment in which to "pull it off" does not mean that recon won't fly in, especially when such a suspect area is precariously close to potential landfall(s). Additionally, even if such a feature which may develop may not do so for a few more days going out, it -could- do so sooner rather than later, although a slower progression (if any) under conditions like these seems more plausible.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 14 2007 06:39 PM)


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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: cieldumort]
      #75542 - Thu Jun 14 2007 05:20 PM

Given the unfavorable conditions and limited activity so far, combined with the predictions for a very active season, can someone validate sending recon on an already limited budget? I've understood that there's been budget problems late in the season before and I'm just curious as to why recon would be sent so early with so little chance for development. Is there more to this disturbance than meets the eye? With all evidence pointing to nothing popping until late in the weekend, why not wait until there's something more to look at?

--------------------
"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."

2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: audienceofone]
      #75543 - Thu Jun 14 2007 08:22 PM

This area is now an invest -94L by NRL.



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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: audienceofone]
      #75544 - Thu Jun 14 2007 08:32 PM

Just because they scheduled a recon flight does not mean it will actually happen. Invest or not the NHC must think that there is some possibility, however remote, (as stated by several other posters in this thread) of a tropical system forming. Who knows, they may be holding their finger over the invest trigger right now. Recon is scheduled for early afternoon on Friday, they have plenty of time to cancel.

EDIT: Just after I submitted this I see that we have 94L, they did have their finger over the invest trigger

Bill

Edited by BillD (Thu Jun 14 2007 08:33 PM)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: BillD]
      #75546 - Thu Jun 14 2007 09:00 PM

New thread up for 94L.

Bill


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