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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Florida Low
      #75582 - Wed Jun 20 2007 09:27 PM

A weak low associated with non-tropical origins is currently moving offshore of roughly Jacksonville, Florida.

Some models have been on the cool side of lukewarm in trying to make something of this, having anticipated something of a surface feature of one kind or another in this general location for a few days in advance now.

Something to watch, but probably nothing that gets going within its current environment.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Florida Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #75583 - Wed Jun 20 2007 09:54 PM

Wind shear is not a problem wit this, 15-20 knots and lowering a bit more later on.. though it is a frontal low, remember that Beryl last year formed off the Carolinas coast. Maybe it could be tagged, but it needs convection and a tug off that front
I'll be monitering it for a while.. though i'm shocked at the NAM today, Hurricane crossing from the Pacific to the carribean then hitting Nicaragua? Well maybe a strong TS at that but isn't a pressure like 996 MLB close to a cat. 1 hurricane?
Here's the link to the 12Z NAM in 30 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/images/nam_slp_030l.gif

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Jun 20 2007 11:12 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Florida Low [Re: allan]
      #75587 - Thu Jun 21 2007 01:49 PM

The Carribean storm looks to be a candidate for an invest later today.. convection is blooming and there is a spin on the bottom of it.. though lets wait and see what happens later.. Our other candidate is off my coastline, They say the low is inland in Jacksonville, but it looks like another low with actual convection increasing around it could be candidate number 2 for an invest. We'll see if the convection can bloom more and maybe circulate around the possible new center of this swirl.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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