Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Plus, the low level circulation is still very vigorous.
My thoughts exactly. There is obviously alot of shear that is preventing the system from developing into a bonifide tropical depression, but it has not given up trying. In order for it to actually develop, though, conditions will have to greatly improve in the eastern Caribbean... unless it some survives in its current form (without increasing or decreasing in organization) until it makes it all the way into the western Caribbean. I don't know if conditions will be any better for development there, but at least historically, the western Caribbean is a better place for a tropical disturbance to be than the central Atlantic or eastern Caribbean this time of year.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
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The shear is low in that area,it is the dry air that is the reason it has not developed more.But I'll tell you what,This is a tough system it is still hanging on.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Hugh
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Looks sheared to me - especially looking at the water vapor loop, which shows all of the moisture getting pushed to the south. The dry air certainly is a bigger problem, though, you're right. On the WV loop I can clearly see the circulation... except instead of dark blue (which would be indicative of heavy moisture) the LLC is showing up brown! It's a very strange sight - looks like there is a channel going just shouth of the system, that is a barrier between the incredibly dry air to the north (where the circulation is) and the moisture to the south.
Right now for me its an interesting thing to study, but far from a tropical cyclone (further than earlier today)
ETA: since the sun set over the system, a tiny batch of convection has fired near the LLC. Certainly nowhere close to enough to pull the trigger, but it's interesting.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Jul 04 2007 10:45 PM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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The convection continues to persist. It just won't die. In fact, as of the last satellite picture, convection has been trying to pop up on the northern side of the system.
And on the water vapor imagery, it appears the dry air is just weakening slightly to the north of the system:
WARNING TIME SENSITIVE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Thu Jul 05 2007 04:52 AM)
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cieldumort
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These little flareups - sort of gives new meaning to *pulse* convection 
Quick observations - dry air is now -really- beginning to fill in around the Low on just about all sides but the south, with more dry air than any one cyclone could choke on north of 11N between roughly 37W and the longitude of the Invest. But worse yet for it.. the dry air now sinks all the way down to about the equator in its path immediately ahead. This alone makes the environment simply inhospitable for anything but slow development, at best. (Link)
Now introduce increasing wind shear, also just up ahead .. now approaching greater than 30 knots in spots.. and still rising (Link).
At a forward speed of roughly 12 knots, give or take, 96L may have another day and a half of marginally favorable environmental conditions (and that may be describing them generously) to pull something "significant" off - in the near term - However, given the tenacity of the Low, this may not be entirely comforting if it should somehow retain some semblance of itself, miss the opportunity to deflect, only to find a sweet spot somewhere else sometime in the future, and closer to the point of a land-lock somewhere. Given the current steering pattern, that possibility might be of some future concern for locations from Central America to Louisiana.
Fortunately, given the climatology for this point in the season, the number of ULLs still diving down into and s forming in the GOM and Caribbean, the above situation does not seem very likely. But, it's probably one to keep in mind for however long the Invest is out there in some recognizable form and stature.
1AM Edit (1 AM Central time folks)
I'm actually starting to think my hat might be off to 96L overnight.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jul 05 2007 06:01 AM)
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dem05
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In general, 96L is definately going through another pulse. Saw one late last night yesterday and another that was several hours earlier yesterday afternoon. I'm a little hesitant to say this is a development trend since these occurances happened yesterday. Wouldwanttogetmyfingers chomped bymother nature! LOL. With that said, it is interesting to note that thunderstorms are buliding on the north and west sides of the circulation...as well as the south side...this is a first in the last 48 hours and the wind structure of 96L remains symentrical. If the storms do not go poof, then we are onto some possible additional development.
Water Vapor, yes..lots of dry air is a continueing challenge, but this evenings loops do suggest that the atmosphere ahead of the systemis moistening up somewhat, and the area ahead of the system is approaching the current moisture levels of the evironment around 96L. WIll be interested to see if the moisture builds up a bit more ahead of 96L. On a final note, the shear producing upper level low, which was referenced in the NOON Update at 14Nand 60W, which is the area that would threaten to produce shear in about two days...has not decided to move north as the model shave suggested...instead, it is currently moving west. If this continues, this shear may Cieldumort has shown us may stay out ahead of the system and 96L environment beyond two days may not be that hostile afterall. But Cieldumort is right, the shear as shown in his map is currently increasing ahead of the system. If the Upper Low pauses in it's westerly track, or the shear zone does not progress westward ahead of the system...this will be a development show stopper. I know that I will be very curious to see if the westward movement (versus Northerly movement) of the ULL persists. This could be very important to any possible future development (Day 2 andbeyond).
Water Vapor Link of the Central Atlantic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
Edited by dem05 (Thu Jul 05 2007 06:57 AM)
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cieldumort
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I am bought-in. I posted less than two hours ago on the difficult environment that 96L has been struggling in. I still see that 96 is still in that generally less-than-friendly part of the world... and for all the reasons I outlined above.. but I am not the first, nor the last, to comment on this bugger's penchant for holding on and fighting back. As has often been stated here and elsewhere... it's often those tenacious ones that we really ought to be wary of, as they can, and have been known to, fight just about everything back, and deliver upside surprises - not to mention toy with the forecast tracks.
So, if this most recent trend of wrapping convection all the way around the center of the vortex continues - and I will qualify this with saying we have seen this with 96L twice before now, actually - I'll give it the Third Times the Charm benefit of the doubt, and agree that it is probably on its way to earn more than honorable mention.
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madmumbler
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As of right now (9:30am) it almost looks like it's falling apart again when I look at the water vapor loop and the visible loop on the floater.
Am I looking at that right or am I missing something?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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weather_wise911
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You're seeing it right--there is hardly any convection...... and I doubt there will be anything more than "flare-ups" every few hours.
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audienceofone
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I think you're seeing it right. Seems to be losing even more convection today and with an increasingly hostile environment predicted in the next day or two (and the already dry air to the north), chances for development are looking very slim. Maybe with something a little stronger today it could outlast the upper level environment it will be facing, but the way it currently looks I wouldn't bank on it.
edit: you beat me to it weather-wise =) i need to learn to type faster
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"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."
2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5
Edited by audienceofone (Thu Jul 05 2007 03:13 PM)
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Bloodstar
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Well, 96L is skeletal, but with pulsing convection, and moving towards warmer waters, there's always that chance that it could ramp up into something quickly. The LLC seems healthy enough, though some of the visible imagery seemed to imply a really sharp trough rather than a full circulation (seemed to be lacking on the south east side a bit). Interestingly enough the storm looks much better when viewed on a wider scale, then the structure really stands out. But by me saying something, it's the kiss of death for development. *grins*
Of passing interest is the sloppy system right off the florida/georgia coast. If it were to slight a little out to sea, it might get some organization together. as it is, I think it's drifting west into land, so that's probably a non starter.
Not much else to look at, So far a quiet start to July. I'd say things had been slow, but we have had 2 systems already, hard to believe that. *heh*
(Forecast Lounge material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 06 2007 01:54 AM)
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HanKFranK
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there it goes again, popping off more convection this evening. the system has gradually lost convection, re-firing more (but a little bit less every time) steadily over the last couple of days. tonight it may have reversed that slightly. the tight vortex tracking just north of due west along 11n is just as easy to pick out as ever. there does appear to be more vertical shear than before, but perhaps the environment is becoming a bit more moist and unstable. the balance of odds is still against, but that little low-level swirl has kept intact fairly well (i'd attribute most of that to it not racing along at breakneck speed--it's stayed around 15mph). that is the sort of feature that would be a tropical cyclone if you tossed a good flareup of deep convection over it for a 12hr period. as things stand that still probably won't happen. it just isn't gone yet.
the is finally mentioning the mess near florida. that sort of thing would be raising all sorts of eyebrows were it over water and threatening the coast.. but it's over land and likely to drift off. a good supply of shortwave energy passing to the north over the next few days should act to work it offshore and out. there's enough shear that development remains unlikely.
long range modeling showing the ridging in the atlantic building further westward, and with the arrival of the wave later this month a strong possibility i'd reckon we'll see some development before too much time passes.
HF 2353z05july
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danielw
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Even though the convection is limited with this system.
The Test Model runs are still taking the system into the Caribbean Sea.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif
Through 120 hours-5 days. The models still maintain the system below 39 knots, or Tropical Storm strength.
The vortice signature of this system is tenacious at the least. Crossing the Caribbean Sea below Tropical Storm strength would limit the potential for shear, and other parameters to interrupt the atmospheric processes. In other words. We would be better off if the storm would develop to some degree.
With the SSTs getting warmer by the day. The current model run would put 96L in a very favorable area in 5 days. With respect to the lower levels and surface conditions that are currently in the Western Caribbean.
Development, should that occur, in the Western Caribbean would/ could mean an almost certain threat to the GOM Coasts. From Brownsville,TX to Key West,FL and the Eastern Florida Coasts in the long term.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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...to consider. Take a look at the Water Vapor image:
NOAA Central Atlantic Water Vapor
You have to look closely, but dry air surrounds the system - and thats a large swath of bleached-bone-dry air that 96L is heading into. Models notwithstanding, it may be difficult to find any remnant of this system before it even gets to the Caribbean Sea. The upper low is going to keep the dry air in place for quite a few days.
ED
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scottsvb
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Alot are talking about the system east of the islands but the chances of this developing is less then 10%. Dry air is surrounding this wave. Chance might go above 10% once it gets to the sw carribean but really to be honest..there is nothing out there for the next 3-5 days.
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cieldumort
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Been interested in watching our -new- Invest just offshore?
There has been a little speculation about the low over Florida sliding offshore and sparking the interest of . Yesterday a weak coc moved offshore of roughly Jacksonville, best I can tell, and has now begun acquiring some deep convection. Pressures are still fairly high, but falling a little bit, waters are warm, shear is under 30 knots, and unlike the environment in and around 96L, the air is not at all bone dry.
(Invest Floater Link)
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Bloodstar
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Go figure, it drifted east ... not west. *laughs*
it's sloppy and sheared... but certainly could be interesting to watch tomorrow.
96 is also getting sheared, but still seems to be holding a pretty distinct (as best as one can tell at night) circulation.
Neither system has their act together, though the florida system is putting out some good convection about 50 - 75 miles from the circulation center.
I still think the odds are low for the next 24 hours, but start to go up if the systems hang together. the environment should get better, but for both systems they're not going to have super favorable environments to flourish. at least for another 48 hours.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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madmumbler
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Been interested in watching our -new- Invest just offshore?
Holy *&^%. I looked at the water vapor loop.
BUT -- that's heading out to the open Atlantic to become a fish spinner regardless, right? Whether or not (most likely not) it develops into anything of substance, it's moving out and except for some well-needed rain, it's not bringing us anything...right?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Holy *&^%. I looked at the water vapor loop.
BUT -- that's heading out to the open Atlantic to become a fish spinner regardless, right? Whether or not (most likely not) it develops into anything of substance, it's moving out and except for some well-needed rain, it's not bringing us anything...right?
Actually it appears to me that it is heading southeast. Still out ot sea ultimately. Bermuda is a more likely target in the unlikely even that something forms from it.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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The 11:30 a.m. TWD, and say it all on the low off Jax.
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doug
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