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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Heads Up?? [Re: cieldumort]
      #75824 - Tue Jul 17 2007 11:29 AM

Is it me or is there just a big mess in the BOC right now. Doesn't look like anything is organized but looking at the visible there might be a slight turning just north of the mexican coast in the southern most part of the BOC. Still can't really tell for sure,however. I know there has been some models trying to bring "something" to the Texas coast so I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Shawn


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75826 - Tue Jul 17 2007 12:17 PM

does no one notice the circulation on the north coast of hati domincan republic probally wont hold togethor but this is the same wave at the same time fram the CMC was forcasting have come in to florida.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
north of hati [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75827 - Tue Jul 17 2007 12:38 PM

the circualtion is samll and is between the upper level low to ne and its sw. it is under a small ridge of high pressure directly north of it that flows into south florida?

(Off-topic material removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 17 2007 07:10 PM)


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
East of Florida [Re: Robert]
      #75828 - Tue Jul 17 2007 01:26 PM

I was looking at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

If you look out directly East of Central Florida (about 1300 miles) somewhere close to 63W 30N there seems to be circulation stacked up on all 3 scales, HDW-Low, Med, High
according to the "flags"
Does anyone else concur?


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: East of Florida [Re: Beach]
      #75829 - Tue Jul 17 2007 02:51 PM

I concur with you but don't think anything will come of this tropical cyclone wise

(Please remember to include your rationale as to why you believe that nothing will come of it - otherwise its just a one-line post that could have been sent as a PM.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 17 2007 07:18 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75830 - Tue Jul 17 2007 03:25 PM

Lots of talk about the mess in the western Gulf of Mexico, as well as some tiny lower-level spinups in the Caribbean, and a large mostly upper-level low in the central Atlantic. All neat features. Fortunately for those of us who can do without tropical cyclones in the area, surface pressures in all of these regions go the gamut from not low to rather high. Without surface pressures falling rather substantially from these levels, it will be difficult to nearly impossible to get a tropical cyclones birthing in these regions.

Perhaps the feature of most interest of these is this blowup along the coast of eastern Mexico, not only because it is closest to land, but also because there does appear to be a surface trof, however weak, under all of that mess.

To attempt a bit more of a rundown of these features:

Western GOM: Deep tropical moisture fanned by a ULL along the coast. A surface low, perhaps nothing much more than part of the monsoon trof and/or heat low, appears to be well-inland over old Mexico, and an additional surface trof may actually exist under the mess of disorganized showers and storms just offshore a bit. Buoy 42002 located at 25.17N 94.42W is now reporting generally light NNW winds, while Buoy 42055 located at 22.01 N 94.05 W, to 42002's south in the Bay of Campeche, is reporting generally SE winds of about 15-20 knots. At neither of these locations are surface pressures falling, and in fact are rising some and are now relatively high. Any development that might occur here will need several more puzzle pieces coming together just right, first.

In and around the Caribbean: Moderate to high shear abounds. Little mid-level spinups that develop from time to time wash out quickly, as anything closer to the surface gets efficiently mowed by the strong upper level winds and generally moderate to high wind shear in the area.

ULL at about 64W 30N: appears to have worked down to the mid-levels, a little bit, but any surface reflection that may be there is slim to none, and fleeting at best. Detrimental dry air encircles the ULL, and surface pressures in the area are very high. About a snowball's chance in southern Arizona during July of anything happening there.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: cieldumort]
      #75835 - Tue Jul 17 2007 11:27 PM

well.. just a few of my thoughts.... i am particular interested in the tropical wave coming into the southern islands. Just to the SE... The ULL low in the Mid north carb i think is about to clear the area out for some waves to move along into.. there is already a tropical wave just over the middle nothern carb. (east of the ULL)... And with the surge of tropical feeds/mositure into southern TX and western GOM... I think we are about to see somewhat of a pattern change in the coming days/week... We are getting the troughs digging down out of the Upper midwest to the mid southeast then out to the east coast..... strong lows up in the hudson bay area of Canada.... this pattern looks somewhat similar to a few years back... I just don't see to many atlantic systems right now with the current setup... Pressures in the ATL are high, and don't look to change for some time.... think i saw someone post about a pattern like.... atl to the carb... and then up around into the GOM.. or into central america... almost keeping the atlantic side shut down... WATER TEMPS ARE WARM NOW... depth of warm water is increasing too in certain areas.


for the cape verde season.... i like to see how the dust levels are in a few months... a post for another day... (but the ITCZ is somewhat more active now in recent weeks!)

Just one note now... I would highly recommend to do final checks on you Hurricane Kits... I hear that gas prices may be goin up again soon... Use the extra money to supply your kits...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jul 18 2007 02:01 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75836 - Wed Jul 18 2007 04:25 AM

New feature possibly worth watching, Storm Hunter points out there. That is one impressive wave. Additionally, I can't remember the last time I've seen the GOM & Caribbean get the dry out like is happening tonight (Link: Water Vapor Loop). I think it was at least a month ago, now. Also, a few pockets of low shear are also starting to pop up here or there in the region (Link), although the eastern Caribbean, where that impressive wave is about to enter, is running moderate to high at this time.

Will be interesting if this is a turning point in the region. Little by little, more and more of the indicators are turning positive per climatology, and with a recent MJO pulse now in effect over this area as well, these next few weeks could be intriguing.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: cieldumort]
      #75838 - Wed Jul 18 2007 11:16 AM

Our snowball out at 65W 30N:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Looks like it isn't ready to give up just yet. There seems to be circulation still at lower and middle levels.
It's still a 1000 miles away, so it has plenty of time to go poof...
or not.



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75841 - Wed Jul 18 2007 06:45 PM

If the feature to the south of Brownsville, Tx. had its associated very weak surface low/trof centered a bit more offshore, it may have earned an Invest tag by now. As can be made out by zooming in (time sensitive) on this recent RGB-enhanced Visible (Loop), a bona fide lower level center of sorts has formed, but is just barely inland, now north of Tampico, Mx., and moving generally NNW, along the coast, but inland. For the better part of the last 48 hours deep convection has hugged this very weak center of lower pressure, and has pulsed higher and lower, but never really dissipated. Winds around Brownsville and much of extreme south Texas have now turned generally NE, offshore of there winds are E or ENE, and winds south of that convective vortice are generally out of the SE. Some of the low cloud features to its west in old Mexico generally moving in from the NW, W, and SW. Possibly a very weak closed circulation does exist at or very near the surface.

The ULL now centered south of Cuba is fast approaching and putting a squeeze on this feature, not only making the convection appear oblong while creating much higher shear over its eastern side, but helping nudge it along a little bit farther west, as it is also getting drawn inland by the retrograding inverted ULL over NE Mexico/E Texas. Conditions are simply not favorable for this one to pull it off. Maybe if something gives - by way of this, something currently unexpected - it has a chance to slide back offshore and/or reform offshore under less difficult conditions, but as of right now, I can make nothing out in the way of anything ready to do that "giving."

So, meanwhile, NE Mexico and extreme S Texas will be getting inundated with bands of squally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms embedded within larger expanses of lighter rain showers.

Other than that, not much out there I can see. Though I still take note that the waves rolling in from Africa have been longer-lived recently, and in general, the entire western Atlantic is not nearly as dry as it has been of late. Also, some models suggest a possible low forming off the Carolinas by a front pushing just offshore, but none that I have seen thus far indicate much if anything in the way of a warm core, there.

Edit: Surface low now very apparent in the Brownsville extended radar loop (possibly time-sensitive link). Indeed, a weak Tropical Low has formed - just barely inland -


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
?Inland Low? [Re: cieldumort]
      #75845 - Wed Jul 18 2007 10:38 PM Attachment (247 downloads)

That system/ trough has been getting a good bit of my attention.
Around 10am CDT this morning it had a perfect CDO look. Only the western 2/3 of the CDO was onshore.

Tonight the un-enhanced IR is showing some of the nicest striated bands that I've seen in the last few years. ( see my attachment above) Also of note is the quantity of lightning seen in the eastern ( offshore ) semicircle. In the attachment the lightning is the bright bluish-white specks in the RGB enhancement.

I'm also keeping an eye on the circular wave moving through the Lesser Antilles. More out of curiosity than climatology. Large arc type wave moving toward the NW, where most waves would be moving due West.

I'll have to look at the data in that area.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: ?Inland Low? [Re: danielw]
      #75848 - Wed Jul 18 2007 11:55 PM

hmm... very nice blow up of convection near 53w 10n... kinda coming in behind the wave in front of it, thats already into the caribbean... Noticed the CMC again trying to throw something up the east side of the US late this weekend/next week... For some reason, when CMC starts to jump around... i think its a sign things are beginning to change.. This wave/convection out in the ATL... got my attention as of right now... see if it can hold for another 24-48hrs as it approaches the islands... needs to gain some lat., and i think it will... like the wave in carb. is clearing the path somewhat for the next wave... i also noticed that in the atl, east of 40w and 10n or so... things are not that as hostile as say two - three weeks ago in the Upper levels... at the surface... still a good push though around the ridge in the Atlantic, from east to west....

[url=http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html]Central Atlantic - AVN Color Infrared Loop[/url]

Water Vapor can kinda help show the mid-to-upper level patterns...near this feature
[url= http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html]Central Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop[/url]

Just a sit and wait... see what happens... if it will make through the night or not.... waters get more warmer the more it heads west now.... and not to much shear aloft near it... didn't get much mention in the 8:05pm TWD tonight, except for [url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/182359.shtml?]Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion[/url] ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 N OF THE ITCZ W OF 54W.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 19 2007 12:06 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Water Temps [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75849 - Thu Jul 19 2007 12:35 AM

Speaking of water temps... this is more of a Composite (Daily Sea Surface Temperatures) image... notice the warmth showing up... close to US and i noticed too... up of the New England to far NE... warming up quickly...
Real Time POES Imagery - Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop
Looks to me that the GOM is cooking good now with warm water... depth of warm water is not that too bad neither in certain spots.

**Kinda see better signs too of La Nina down in the southern EPAC (near equator) (mods can move this post, if need be)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Water Temps [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75850 - Thu Jul 19 2007 01:42 AM

Just looked at the 00Z GFS long range... and going back and looking at last few runs/days.... Long range, say late next week... toward end of the month, looks like we may see a pattern change take place... looks somewhat familiar too a few years ago (not as much as last year, but before that)... the trough of low pressure along the east US looks to turn more zonal in the northern US... and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure the eastern US into the atlantic... i think in the last couple of days, the long range GFS is showing some signs of a pattern shift, and how long it last, who knows... for a short time, or for weeks... only time will tell...

GFS

Almost looks like the pacific NW US... Northern Pacific towards Alaska is going to see a pattern change... the low area may get replaced with high pressure out off the coast? Would be great news for the SW US... where all the wildfires are. The change out west would affect the eastern US... almost looks like to set up a blocking pattern with the ridge off the east coast for tropical systems if they would form, around the end of the month...

Any others see this shaping up in long range??

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 19 2007 01:44 AM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75851 - Thu Jul 19 2007 02:18 AM

The CMC seems to go stronger and stronger each run. This is out at 108 hours from the 00 19th run. It's if this verifies, it's bad news for NYC.

(oversized image deleted - please use attachment or URL link.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 19 2007 05:24 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: Doombot!]
      #75852 - Thu Jul 19 2007 04:43 AM

I hate to say this, but the CMC could be on to something with a storm hitting the NE.. but that strong? Maybe not. Why I think this could happen? Take a look at this loop of the wave at Lesser Antillis, notice the movement, it's NNW.. and the CMC picks this up around July 20, and turns this into a monster category 2-3 Hurricane Chantal hitting Montauk point, LI. It is something to watch, regarding that the CMC has done horrible this year, but it's record is not all that bad. It was correct with Alberto in 2006, and our 2 storms so far this year, it nailed Barry. Now look at the UKMET, it to has a storm forming a bit more north - westward and moves it up the coast, I still can't get the Cyclone Phase map for that model yet. The CMC has it fully tropical then hitting with some extra-tropical characteristics, but still a Hurricane landfall. Also notice on the second link, shear has decreased to favorable conditions in the path of this "possible" but not yet confirmed storm for the NE. So all in all, it could happen, but highly doubt it will be a monster in my opinion.

satellite (movement of the wave)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Shear map as of 00Z
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: allan]
      #75854 - Thu Jul 19 2007 09:30 AM

I think the CMC is not to be taken serious as its done very poor on genesis so far this season.Also i in opinion the CMC model is not to far behind from the NAM when it comes to forcasting tropical cyclones.

On another note strong wave pushing into the islands....Some mid-level rotation there.



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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75855 - Thu Jul 19 2007 11:15 AM

This A piece of Joe bastardie's weather out look for this morning


Oh, by the way, a home brew watch may be issued for off the southern Atlantic coast, as the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean comes northwest and entrains itself into a frontal boundary that will be off the south Atlantic coast. The trough split that occurs may leave this area as one where in-close development can take place and I think the Euro and to some extent the UKMET is on to this. Finally the euro is seeing what is going to happen as it is weaker with the split rather than trying to leave a close-off low over the Appalachian


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: Hurricane29]
      #75856 - Thu Jul 19 2007 11:17 AM

Yes it is a poor model but that pic of the wave in the carribean you posted is the wave that the CMC has developing.. look at where it's moving, not west. It's just something to watch..
The CMC takes this wave over the islands and rapidly turns it into a Long Island Express like storm, because of teh possible steering currents last year, people would have been watching this more. I will continue to moniter it, it may be a bad forecast model, but it IS a forecast model and should be at least monitered on that weird but possible situation. The wave btw is moving in a NW direction and is firing up convection due to currently marginal to low shear (10-15 knots). This one has a chance.

1:00 p.m. - New CMC run is more reasonable, it has a weak TS hitting the NE instead of a Hurricane. What also makes me believe more that the CMC could be true is that a small circulation has formed on the north part of the wave, and ENE of Puerto Rico. I believe the CMC is hinting that this area of interest is the one to be the player for the NE. It's very clear, convection is good, maybe 97L will come around later tonight if convection and the circulation persists.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Jul 19 2007 01:15 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! [Re: allan]
      #75857 - Thu Jul 19 2007 01:29 PM

CMC has now backed off to a much weaker system:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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