allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Not that it is a big thing rigth now, the is spitting out another system. The thing that has me questioning on development is that the wave that it develops it from is looking really good today and shear has decreased on the possible path 20-15 knots which makes it only marginal for development. UKMET has this as a weak wave, also shows it as a weak wave, I have yet to see the but it probably wont show it. This is much more of a possibility to me because, if it does happen, it wil start in a few days, and the wave is there unlike the last OOPS the made. The wave is showing a slight rotation on the southwestern side of the convection.. at least I see a rotation, probably not a LLC. Lets see what happens as the days go by.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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I guess it could happen, but climatology is clearly against it. No storm in late July in the last 150 years has taken this track:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=718&tstamp=200707
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the Preliminary Forecast Discussion. Excerpt only.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
130 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 22 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 26 2007
...THE CANADIAN USES A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE/CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 990 HPA/ TO HELP IT WOBBLE WESTWARD. OUTSIDE THE ... THE MODELS DO NOT ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE COLL IN THE 500 HPA PATTERN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS...
...12Z MODELS...GFS REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PRIOR RUN AND NOW THE CANADIAN HAS BEGUN TO SELF CORRECT ITSELF WEAKENING BUT STILL
CARRYING ITS OVER DONE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ITS MID LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN IS NOW CLOSER TO THE .
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
Previous Extended Forecast Discussions
COLL is basically an area between Highs and Lows. A Valley of no steering currents~danielw
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