MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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99L has moved inland mostly and never got its act together, at times it did look like it would have a shot, and it appeared the National Hurricane Center thought enough of it to send out recon to it twice. But, thankfully it did not develop.
Similarly the system in the Gulf never got itself together either, so that leaves the Atlantic in a brief Lull period.
Next areas to watch will the Intratropical-Covergence zone (east of the Caribbean) and off the Atlantic coast, where there is some minor activity now. If anything happens, it won't be until later in the week, and no models (Except the , which has been on a phantom roll lately) suggest anything right now.
However it is now August, and things can change rapidly, so the entire basin is open to being checked. The latter half of August is when things usually start to really pick up. Enjoy the Lull again, and hope it lasts a long time.
We'll be watching.
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cieldumort
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Scatterometer shows that a LLC moved inland into Nicaragua, moving inland from roughly 12N, but this was already a long, long time ago in the lifespan of 99L.
What is almost remarkable, is how the "Wave of 99" keeps on keeping on (Can we just start calling it that? It seems most appropriate to give it its own title considering how tenacious it has been). While just about wrote it off again, and again, and again, as I type tonight, the 99L floater is back up, and 99L is back up on , still at 30 knots.
Most impressively, the mid-level circ appears to have crossed over the tip of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, is continue to get better organized, and may be riding WNW.
Being that I am posting from Texas, a tenacious sneaker wave like 99 is not something I think those of us out this way can kiss goodbye just yet. This is especially true given how saturated the s0ils are here. Should 99 never even come to be an officiated depression, which it is not forecast to do, the idea of a well-developed, tenacious wave continuing to gain latitude, perhaps to be steered more or less into south Texas, one way or another, be it from moving inland from the southwestern GOM, or from coming up from having already moved inland over Old Mexico, is one that those of us this side of the Gulf should still watch.
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allan
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well.. whatever was trying to form out of that MLL has moved inland, all threats on 99L develping has gone. Though it could refire back in the Pacific and actually develop. Things should start to explode in a few weeks in the Atlantic.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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GuppieGrouper
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From the available pictures, it looks more like a tropical storm in satellite presentation than it ever did while in the water, such as the back feathering and forward feathering of clouds. However, I realize that looks are deceiving. I am referring to 99L. As for keeping an eye on developments, the train of the intertropical convergence zone is starting to look busy to me.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The "high amplitude tropical wave" located near 20N/ 60W appears to be working down to the surface.
While upper level winds are cyclonic, and not usually favorable for development.
The 200mb map from indicates this area to be on the southern end of a . Which may be amplifying the circulation.
Latest visible photo (time sensitive) shows cyclonic curvature in the cumulus cloud streets. Over a fairly wide area.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
cloud streets photo in attachment above~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 05 2007 06:16 PM)
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Steve H1
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Noticed on visible imagery this afternoon, an area of cyclonic turning around 35W/12N. I think this might be the area that the Canadien (GEM) is showing for development. Does look interesting. I have trouble cutting in links so you'll have to go look at it, but its not the one south of the Cape Verdes, but to the west/northwest of that. Think this may have potential :?:
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HanKFranK
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the thing steveh1 mentions is about 'it' right now. it doesn't look especially impressive but is maintaining to slightly improving right now, so it might be something in a couple of days. the stuff on the isn't really moving though, at the low levels, while easterly waves are buzzing right along in the low-mid troposphere above the surface convergence and turning. it will need to do something or the next wave will smear it flat back into the .
since 99L tried to go, chantal went, and the eastpac has been modestly active lately, that sudden snap that tends to happen in august during la nina years when everything suddenly switches on is likely not far in the future. it's usually the 15th-20th, which is in the two week period anyhow.
in other news it's hot as blue blazes in the east right now. fairly strong amplitude ridge right now, with troughing offshore. heights will start to fall a tad here and may create a recurvature corridor near the east coast for anything that happens. it does appear, though, that the mean trough position this year is off the east coast and may lead to numerous recurvatures.
HF 2141z06august
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madmumbler
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Quote:
heights will start to fall a tad here and may create a recurvature corridor near the east coast for anything that happens. it does appear, though, that the mean trough position this year is off the east coast and may lead to numerous recurvatures.
HF 2141z06august
What exactly do you mean by recurvatures? Are you talking sending storms out to be fish spinners, or bringing them onshore along the east coast?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Bloodstar
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Something seems to be stirring very very far out in the Atlantic. Cyclonic turning and convection which has some modest support from the model (and only the model, nothing else notices it at this point). Really far out and about the only thing of interest that I can see. It's still somewhat embedded in the ... so it's probably not going to do anything fast if it does actually begin to develop.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Lee-Delray
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On Wunderground they are talking about something headed towards Florida in 16 days on the . Obviously, it doesn't mean much if anything at this time.
I am curious where you can see these models go out for such a long period of time though.
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rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Any model could not possibly yield any worthwhile output beyond 5-6 days as I see it. I believe in the experts' opinion that this season has barely begun.
The and models have been spotting ghosts, I'd imagine. But those areas immediate to the east of the Windwards bare watching; after all, tis the season!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lee-Delray
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Looking at the 12Z (which has not been so well this year), it has 2 storms doing a semi circular boomerang trajectory one behind the other starting and ending in Central America without hitting US l.
If nothing else, it's kind of neat to watch.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Wed Aug 08 2007 05:50 PM)
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HanKFranK
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several of the globals have been persistently developing the wave slated to move off the west african coast later tomorrow. has been doing it every run, euro is seeing it some, and some of the other models are following it, too. variety of forecasts for whatever synoptic pattern would be in place were it to develop and come across. has been mostly pushing it across, but is recurving it in the afternoon runs. euro has a pattern in place going into late month that might turn it up or might block it and yank it west. looks like a moderate chance we'll get a storm and a lesser it chance it might be a real threat.
keep an eye on the nw caribbean/gulf around mid next week. synoptic pattern looks good for something and the and euro are suggesting something might pop. if i was in texas, particularly south texas, i'd take a glance over the weekend.
hotter than hell here. got to 106 over at the airport. hottest day here since 1999.
HF 2350z09august
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Following Hank's post with this morning's Model Run update.
Excerpt from the run.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007(edited~danielw)
VALID AUG 10/0000 UTC THRU AUG 13/1200 UTC
LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS EXPECTED TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS... THOUGH ITS 09/12Z RUN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE RETROGRADING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.
THE IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SURFACE PATTERN... BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKENING THE PROGRESSION OF ITS 850 HPA REFLECTION OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS... SHOWING MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAN A SURFACE LOW.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE IS THE STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW...
WITH THE CANADIAN THE SECOND STRONGEST AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO EMMINATE FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME.
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY... WITH
THE SHOWING THE MOST NORTHERN SOLUTION. SINCE THE AND CANADIAN ARE NORMALLY TOO BULLISH ON TROPICAL LOWS... WILL BUY THE CONSENSUS DELAYED SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING... NOT PREFERRING A
SURFACE LOW UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
FROM THEN ONWARD...WE WILL BE STICKING WITH WHAT WAS AGREED UPON DURING THE THURSDAY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH WITH REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
DAY 7.
SEE THE PREEPD ISSUED BY 09Z AND THE RELATED MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE FUTURE OF THIS FEATURE. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC CONCERNING THE CURRENT STATUS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEE THE QPF DISCUSSION ISSUED BY 09Z CONCERNING POTENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACT ON
THE KEYS/SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
All of HPC Discussions
NHC Main Page
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ElizabethH
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Loc: Bay County
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Holy 0z model Batman! This model run blows up a monstor in 4 or 5 days! I didn't look yesterday afternoon so I don't know if the has been predicting this for a day or so or not but geez. did mention an area of clouds and thunderstorms in the caribbean that may have the potential to develop over the next couple of days. Upper level conditions are moderatly favorable for development right now. There is a little shear in the path of this disturbance up near the Yukatan.
But the ever aggressive will have to be monitored as usual. Further out, it also develops something off the coast of Africa. As does the . Keep on watching everyone!
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OUSHAWN
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Can someone provide a link to that model run please? Where is it taken this system?
Shawn
That can be found at the bottom of the Main Page
Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 10 2007 01:49 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
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CMC has been developing a storm for a couple of days now. It does that at times (when none of the other models are picking up on
anything). If other models start picking up on it then might be something to consider (what I was told). Gulf is 89 degrees here.
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madmumbler
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Loc: SWFL
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A couple of the models seem to be in agreement about something coming off Africa in (I think) 80+ hours.
But as always, don't board your windows based on model runs. *LOL*
Bottom line is, it's that time of year again when people need to stay on their toes and stay aware.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well....globals are coming into better agreement on a low exiting the African Coast in a few days and crossing the atlantic... was first, than the jumped aboard...(now has 4 areas from the Gulf Of Mexico to the east coast Atlantic to the far western Atlantic, kinda over doing it again, which is expected of the Canadian Model) but now most other globals are coming on with the Afican low coming off the coast in a few days... they all vary in how weak/strong and the path they take... I am a little curious to see if something can make the track across the atlantic, right now.
i have been studying some stuff over at <a href="www.eumetsat.int" target="_blank">Eumetsat</a>... reading some things and what from what i can tell there has been somewhat a shift in flow over northwestern Africa... above where the would be... which i think there has been some areas that have gotten wet, that are usually very dry. This would help the dust that is pulled down into the Atlantic with the ridge that is just to the SW of Europe... but with the flow around the high... it is pushing cooler waters down towards the area that would be favorable for Tropical Cyclone formation... near the Cape Verde Islands... I think clark talked a little about the Cooler Waters and setup in this region a few weeks ago......
This 24 image shows the low cloud product.... RGB...and you can kinda see where the cooler air is at... EUMETSAT - Met 9 RGB **note this is really only good for night time use... but does show better where low level mositure boundries are... cirrus clouds, etc.
This 24 image shows the dust product... RGB.... and you can see where possible dust in the air is at... **Dust appears pink or magenta in this RGB combination... Dry land looks pale blue (daytime) to pale green (nighttime). Thick, high-level clouds have red-brown tones and thin high-level clouds appear very dark (nearly black). EUMETSAT- Met 9 RGB
(I find it easier to watch the sats if you speed up the player)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 10 2007 08:14 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Plenty of TV hype over the African Wave. And it's way beyond the accurate forecast period for any of the Models.
Still bears keeping an eye toward the CATL Gap- Central Atlantic
Models, NWS offices and at least one of the satellite sites I checked are indicating the Bay of Campeche' / Yucatan Peninsula area is probably the area to watch over the weekend.
Cyclonic circulations at differents levels were visible earlier in the Eastern Bay of Campeche' and just east of the Bahamas. With the former having a more formidible appearance.
Bouy 42055 was located under or near some convection in the western semicircle of the circulation... based on wind direction and wind change over 24 hours. And temp./ dew point being the same... 100% humidity.
Pressure was at it's lowest in the last 5 days. However pressure fall appeared to be diurnal.
Will wait on tonight's model runs to see if the consistancy in the models holds out.
Weak cool front passing thru MS about 70 miles north of the GOM. May add a little stir to the mix.
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