javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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As you look at the latest model picks and the further S they have gone except the look at the extrapolation WSW.The point that I was tring to make earlier.When Dean starts to slow down a little the ridge is letting up some and then maybe a little bit of a bend should start to happen.My little vortice is still out @ 11N 50W it too appears to be bending WSW and Dean looks to be only holding on but it is the DMin now.Also Dean looks to be gaining on the Vortice so maybe the ridge is slowing down at 50W.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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The GOM system looked alot better earlier this morning. I would be surprised if the Hurricane Hunters find anything significant enough to classify it. If they don't than it probably will not get classified at all because it's quickly running out of time.
Shawn
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).
Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.
Bob - I am not a moderater here and I rarely post. But, in this instance I felt compelled to post and reply.
Why in the world would you post that here when the information is not only inaccurate but purely speculative as as well. Just because a friend of yours who has an anonymous family member at NOAA who's divulged some info does not mean it needs to be posted here "for our information" especially if it's obviously dated and inaccurate.
I know this sounds harsh but, Bob there are many many people who lurk on this site and take its contents to heart. Some lay person reading your post or worse yet, only reading half your post would be sent off to nearest shelter screaming.
As everyone here has devined, it's still way too far off to do anything but speculate and make sure we stress that in our posts.
Mods - please feel free to flog me for this post.
It was not my intent (to cause panic, etc.), and again I apologize for any confusion. I posted what I did in part because 90% of the posters here do know a little more than the average layman, and I should have posted a disclaimer for that reason.
I get these "dispatches" from my friend periodically, and for the most part I ignore them. This particular email caught my attention, (it had a copy of the model run included) and as I stated in my previous post, I took with a large grain of salt, knowing how inaccurate the is out past 100 hours based upon what I've learned from this and other sites.
I know full well the ramifications of a wishcasting post, or the "we're all gonna die" type post and did not intend for my particular post to come across that way. My personal wish is for Dean (and any other name storm for that matter) to all be fish-spinners.
Again..sorry for any confusion this may have caused.
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Quote:
Quote:
FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).
Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.
Bob - I am not a moderater here and I rarely post. But, in this instance I felt compelled to post and reply.
Why in the world would you post that here when the information is not only inaccurate but purely speculative as as well. Just because a friend of yours who has an anonymous family member at NOAA who's divulged some info does not mean it needs to be posted here "for our information" especially if it's obviously dated and inaccurate.
I know this sounds harsh but, Bob there are many many people who lurk on this site and take its contents to heart. Some lay person reading your post or worse yet, only reading half your post would be sent off to nearest shelter screaming.
As everyone here has devined, it's still way too far off to do anything but speculate and make sure we stress that in our posts.
Mods - please feel free to flog me for this post.
The runs are freely available to the public out to 384hr -- 16 days -- and showed a storm impacting Florida well before the tropical wave even made it out over the water. In fact, the tropical disturbance was still in the eastern hemisphere when it started showing that. In other words, he's not putting anything out there that wasn't available to the public in the first place.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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This early afternoon, the old low level center with 91L reformed directly underneath the deepest convection in the central Gulf. Given current trends and organization, I'll be surprised if recon does not find at least a TD -- if not a TS -- while it is out there. It's almost there now, so we should know relatively soon. Still no change in forecast thinking from last night.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Not sure about 91L but right now Dean is not looking that good, just maybe the old Models may be right..
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Not saying your wrong, but it's just going through some re-organization. It will be looking good tonight and I predict it will be Hurricane Dean late tommorrow as rapid strengthening looks likely.. but not as likely as the HRMF shows LOL.. that model completely screams out !!!
Just because it looks ragged and weakening does'nt mean it's weakening, another thing to point out is that it's durinal minimum. Convection will decrease, it's normal. I say Dean is doing very well today. Tonight, maybe a surprise waits on us.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I don't think there is a problem with discussing long-range model output for existing storms here, but it is important to keep in mind that model runs get stale pretty quickly... old runs don't immediately become worthless whenever a new run comes in, but by the time they are 2-3 days old, they pretty much are worthless, except in a retrospective sense to determine model skill.
Regarding Dean, there is still a lot of variability in the forecast tracks, even in the short and medium range. The 12Z is a lot further south with the track and the 12Z is much further south and much weaker with the system at 126 hrs compared to recent runs.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We have an interesting thread talking about the variation of Long Range Models in the Forecast Lounge. Might want to go there to discuss the insanity of the long range forecasts 
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=76191&an=0&page=0
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Well, I'll leave it to all of you to worry and talk about a system that is still around 1500 miles away from the islands. I'm personally more concerned with what is happening right in my own backyard. If Clark says he believes that it will be classified than I would give it a 99.9% chance. We've had enough rain here in the Houston area this year and even though it would be nice to have a break from the heat right now this is not quite the way I want it to happen.
Shawn
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I agree, it looks like reorganization to me. Don't forget, it's late afternoon where the Dean is located, meaning the cloud tops will have warmed from solar heating. Thus it appears less organized than it is.
Looking at the Dvorak image, it looks to be starting to wrap convection.
(FYI, quick visual refernece: http://web.archive.org/web/2005090620254..._guide_to_d.htm )
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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Dean looks good...really good already. predicts 72 hours right now for hurricane strength...that may be a bit generous time wise. The Official track has shifted a bit further south in the latest update as well. Several model runs are pushing for a second ridge to push down over the East Coast keeping Dean from curving out to sea. It really can go without saying, but I'll say it anyway...that ridge will make or break Florida or any coastal location as far as Dean making landfall.
I don't think it's a question of if Dean will become a hurricane. It's a question of how strong will the High be...
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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The low in the GOM has another round of storms flaring now... but there to the NE of the center... I would expect tonight be a real deal for the system to get going... the water temps are warmer the more it moves to the wnw. It is still filling the effects of the ULL... i see recon is around 22.1N 88.80W.. on obs 9 at 1915z...(which if i decode it right, would put them on the ESE side of the low... just north of the tip of the Yucatan?) and with the new storms to the NE of the center, i would expect thats where they will find the strongest winds on this flight...
Vis - Sat 16 images Loop
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 14 2007 03:35 PM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Dang, should have stuck with my gut feeling all along which was that it wasn't going to be classified...thanks Clark...Just kidding. It may still get classified but doesn't look like there will be enough time for it to make it to tropical storm status before it hits land. It will bring plenty of rain,however.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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That also goes back to what I mentioned earlier about still having it as just an "invest" and not changing it to "noname"...that was a big clue for me.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... getting use to this HDOB from the recon... putting together there flight path... looks to me now that they are heading to the Northeast side of the system... at 1935 they were about directly east of the center? heading north, or the could be making the turn inward... will see on HDOB 18 that should be up in a few mins. **the HDOB are pretty neat... every 30 seconds you can see where the aircraft is in the High-Density Observations. (alt., pressure, temp... can't wait until someone makes a decoder/plotter for the data... like the vortex drops) then you just go back and put the lat./long and connect the dots... and you get the previous flight path!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 14 2007 03:54 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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to bad this buoy is not working all the way... TS Dean just went right by this morning... winds went all the way from NE to N to W to S now.... no pressure reading! but had a 30 kts wind earlier...
Station 41026 - Forro
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 14 2007 03:52 PM)
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Valandil
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
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I just check the data of the bouy Station 41026 , that is now available (had been offline early today).
It has been 0.3° south of Dean when he passed and 30 kts sound very reasonale, neat to see the wind direction change.
Just thought it was some nice data to look at...
Vala
Mods: feel free to delete, StormHunter was faster
Edited by Valandil (Tue Aug 14 2007 04:04 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Here is a link explaining the Herbert box.It looks like in a few days Dean should enter this box.Given the history,this maybe very important for people in South Florida to read. http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Looks like the low level and mid level circulations of the the GOM system can't seem to get stacked right and that will keep it from becoming anything but a rain maker. The ULL is still having an effect on it.
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