Old Sailor
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dean looks the same feel still at 40mph, But think 91L will be TD at 11...
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Thunderbird12
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Looks like they are going to bump the intensity up to at least 45 kts on Dean for the next advisory, based on the initial intensity used in the SHIPS output linked below:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
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Storm Hunter
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i would expect to read in the 11 .. since recon has left the system... sats have shown better presentation of the system.... storms are to the NE of what was the center... recon could not close off a center? its right there at a TD.
May just be me... but looks like a lot of the models on Dean are back into the Caribean?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNLU
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TD5 in the Gulf at the next advisory.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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twizted sizter
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Based on that quikstat image posted Dean definitly looks better than earlier...some 45kt barbs in there as well it appears.
Interested to see what he looks like in the a.m. after the dinural max.NHC has him to be a hurricane at the 2pm Fri position...seems to be on track.
Would hope they would at least issue some warnings for 91L...don't think the winds found in recon waranted an upgrade but I'm sure alot of people aren't really paying attention or even know what an invest is...at least give them a heads up.
Well I stand corrected on the upgrade of 91l
Edited by twizted sizter (Wed Aug 15 2007 01:43 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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hmm.... in that run... they went with 1000mb on Dean... so pressure down a bit from earlier...
here's most of the 00Z runs with GE... the models are in much better agreement tonight than last night on dean's path... but that could and will change again and again
Both systems models on GE
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 01:50 AM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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NRL has it up 45 knots and down to 1000 mbs.
Click Here
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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wxman007
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Also has 91L as 05 Noname, so it appears we have TD5.
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Jason Kelley
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OUSHAWN
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Now that we have TD#5 this thing may actually start to really fire off. I've seen it happen before with storms in the GOM. We all know how warm the water is out there and it still has some time left before it hits land. Also, Joe B. has even mentioned this before, tropical systems like to really "go off" when they get close to the Texas coast. There's something about the way the coastline is at an angle that sets them off. I remember Alicia doing that back in '83 as well as Allison when she was just a few miles off the coast in 2001. I'm not saying it will...I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised.
Shawn
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cieldumort
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I've been of the impression all afternoon that 91L has not been able to consolidate around the original LLC because it has been attempting to reform, or recenter itself, under where the deepest convection has been sustained, which also looks to be, unsurprisingly, where the upper level winds and overall shear has been coming way, way down (LINK)
The entire gulf has seen some cyclonic wind flow about the rough center of the Low, but with this blowup getting even more impressive as we head into the overnight, I tend to agree that TD5 may be called as 11PM. Overall, I put the odds at 80% of 91L becoming an officiated tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, it just has to consolidate a tiny bit more.
The most recent model run that is closest to what has been my line of thinking is the 18Z (LINK). It plays out the scenario of the cyclone truly centering a bit to the north of where most others have it initialized, and rather than a trip into old Mexico, takes it landfalling as a strong tropical storm or borderline hurricane near Port O Conner, Texas (up the coast a little bit from Corpus).
If I had to pick a cone, I would go with anywhere from Brownsville to Port O Conner, but stressing that the impacts will be felt well-away from the COC, itself. This is an area (SE Texas) which has already seen tremendous flooding so far this summer. Despite the recent past couple of dry days and even weeks, grounds are still soggy, rivers and lakes still at or above normal levels.
EDIT - See what I get for not checking et all before posting? 
(Been a long, long day)
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 15 2007 02:34 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Well expect watches and warnings to be coming out shortly for the Texas coast into MX coast. Just looked at the cloud temps on the GOM... around -80 to -85.... they shot way up into the atmosphere... Nice rapid blow up of convection this evening.... not susprising to me.. the GOM is a bath tub of VERY WARM water now.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 02:14 AM)
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OUSHAWN
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I'm not agreeing with the Northern Mexico/Southern Texas landfall option. I'm thinking more of a Central Texas Coast landfall...say around Corpus.
Shawn
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Storm Hunter
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not sure, but i think TD5 is at 1006mb and at 25kts... lat./long coming with pkg..
just read public adv... TD 5 pkg coming out now
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS
EVENING.
So they are goin with recon pressure from earlier.... with landfall on thursday morning... southern TX coast
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 15 2007 02:38 AM)
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OUSHAWN
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As of right now, the Houston/Galveston area is not under the watch. I think the watch will be extended further north in time.
Shawn
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Rabbit
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looks like the ULL is pulling west rather rapidly, and is helping to enhance TD5's outflow
also, on , Dean appears to be at 50mph now
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Storm Hunter
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yeah... Pressure down... winds up
Dean is at
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 42.3W AT 15/0300Z
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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MikeC
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Clark's got the new model graphics working more consistently now, they are listed on the main page under each storm, but for reference:
The Intensity plot is brand new.
Dean
Dean Latest Model Track image: Latest Static - Animated
Dean Latest Intensity Model Image: Latest Static - Animated
TD#5
TD#5 Latest Model Track image: Latest Static - Animated
TD#5 Latest Intensity Model Image: Latest Static - Animated
Trying to add a few more things as well, but that's a start for tonight.
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Clark
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Many thanks to Mike with the help on mirroring the images. I hope they are of some use to you guys, being more complete than the images (and a bit better looking, I think). The full set of images can always be found at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ -- including Ensemble model tracks and a "quick look" image showing what is being plotted.
With respect to the tropics...
The structure of Dean, as illustrated by QuikSCAT, is such that as it moves into a region of weaker easterly shear, better thermodynamics (away from all of that stable air near the Cape Verdes), and warmer SSTs, it has a chance to develop at a decent rate. Look for this to happen starting sometime tomorrow -- probably afternoon into evening.
Not a whole lot to change with respect to the forecast reasoning or intensity right now. The track and intensity both look reasonable at this time. From there, it's still largely a crapshoot, but a major hurricane is likely to be somewhere in Hebert's box before the 5 day period is out.
And TD 5? For some reason, I'm getting Dean flashbacks in my mind...except from the 1995 version rather than the 2007 version. What that means is a weak to moderate storm making landfall on the Texas coastline a day or two after it developed with rainfall as its most significant effect. The intensity and track look good, though there's an outside chance at more intensification than anticipated depending upon how much the shear relaxes. The warmest (and deepest) waters of the Gulf are further east, so don't expect a bonanza out of this one.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cieldumort
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A lot of organization still going on with TD5. I've seen somewhat better-organized disturbances go without an upgrade, so it's a little easy to say that may have been gracing this one a little bit. The recent QuikSCAT pass from 08/15 0028Z clearly revealed the original LLC way down near 21N 91W, and still arguably either the dominant or yet major player at the surface. However, that pass also did hint at a the possibility of a very tenuous replacement LLC forming underneath the MLC, and roughly where pegged the approximate center of the broad circulation of the tropical low.
The most recent RUC run I looked at still picks up on the original LLC as being the nexus of TD5, but also forecasts a complete and thorough jumping of the center later today... and that, combined with a continuing favorable atmospheric environment and very warm SSTs still make the recent runs the better bets, IMHO.
Pressures are now starting to fall more, and somewhat more rapidly, while convection is getting its act back together, as well.
Bottom line - deep south and southeastern Texas needs to be prepared for the prospect of widespread moderate to heavy rains, areas of high winds (especially along the coast), isolated tornadoes, and really, most of all.. more flooding.
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WeatherNLU
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Boy, I tell you as interested as I am trying to be in TD5 since it's closer to home, Dean is starting to scare me a little. Of course it's terribly early to be worrying, but the is starting to hone in on an area that I am not comfortable with, and that's the Louisiana coastline. The is very comfortable with what the is doing with Dean and has shifted the 5AM track southward for a run right through the Caribbean with Jamaica now bearing the brunt of the trouble as opposed to Puerto Rico and the Dominican. Still plenty of time to watch, but I don't like what I am seeing right now with Dean. If the 5 day forecast of the holds as now shown, I see no way how Dean stays out of the GOM. Yuck!
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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