Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles

6:45AM EDT Update 16-Aug-2007'
Tropical Storm Erin is making landfall in Texas this morning as a weak Tropical Storm south of Corpus Cristi, bringing a iittle rain to the area. Most of the rain is to the north of the center of the system, however. But much of Texas could use anything but rain this summer.

Erin is spawning weak tornadoes in Texas, along with the rain.

Dean is now a Hurricane, the first of 2007. It is still moving westward and hurricane Warnings are up for the Lesser Antilles islands, with an eye that may starting to become visible. Dean could be a category 2, or perhaps 3 by the time it reaches the lesser Antilles, people there need to be prepared now.

The forecast track is taking it westward, the most likely scenario takes it into the Yucatan Peninsula, and eventually then into the southern Gulf. Extrapolating takes it into Mexico, but that still is quite long range, the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. Although models have been remarkably consistent on taking it west, with no apparent weakness sin the ridge ahead of it. However, the latest is trending it into the Gulf. So it'll be important to watch if it's just a fluke or others follow. Long range models are still a dartboard.

This is because normally the long range forecasts are problematic, but so far, they appear to be behaving. The trough in the Bahamas, actually more of a developing mid to upper level cutoff low, is not expected to be strong enough to alter Dean's forecast path. The circulation around the cutoff low could actually help to maintain the southern portion of the western extention of the mid Atlantic ridge over Florida - and keep Dean on his west northwest track.

Tonight aircraft recon will get a first attempt at approaching Dean, along with the Gulfstream jet to measure upper air patterns ahead of the storm,which means Tomorrow models will have that data to help along with the future track, which should improve models for later in the run.

Judging by appearance, Dean may be stronger than it's currently estimated to be, so an accurate measurement by the aircraft recon will be welcome.

The other areas discussed haven't had much go on with them, and the system off Africa did not stay together all that well, so near term development there is not expected -- but we may have to watch it later.

6PM EDT Update 15-Aug-2007'
Interestingly, despite a late morning blowup from Erin to become a tropical storm it has not formed the stacking structure necessary for further strengthening, so it will likely make landfall as a low to mid strength Tropical Storm.

Dean continues to look more impressive, nearing hurricane strength, with pressure dropping. Those in the Eastern Caribbean/lesser Antilles need to prepare now for the storm, which may be a fairly strong hurricane by the time it reaches the islands.

Beyond that, the official forecast keeps it moving westward, just south of Jamaica and into the Northwestern Caribbean.

Beyond that it is still too early to say, please look at the cone, especially at the long range (I still don't trust the long range models), rather than the exact track, folks in the Caribbean need to prepare, those in the Gulf and Florida need to be aware of Dean as well, it is currently forecast to become a Category 3/4 storm when it enters the Caribbean.

Outside of that, the wave that came off Africa recently doesn't seem to be holding together, but some are strong enough we may need to watch later, and an interesting disturbance in the eastern Gulf (east of Erin) is starting to become interesting as well. Welcome to mid August.

11:30AM EDT Update 15-Aug-2007
TD#5 was held as a 30MPH depression at 11am, but a recon flight found Tropical Storm force winds at flight level shortly thereafter, causing the system to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin. Strengthening to moderate tropical storm strength is expected before landfall sometime tomorrow.

Dean is up to 60MPH and may become a hurricane tonight or by tomorrow. Those in the Eastern Caribbean should be prepared and the rest of the basin, Gulf and East coast should remain prudent watching it. The forecast track seems fairly good 3-4 days out.

More to come later.

8:35 AM EDT Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 is looking much better organized this morning, recon flights are scheduled to go out and take readings on this system. Those in Texas will want to watch this system.