MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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7:50PM EDT 17 August 2007 Update
Latest recon reports suggest that Dean is now a Category 4 hurricane, vortex message is yet to arrive, however. Estimated surface winds would be around 130-135MPH.
6:20PM EDT 17 August 2007 Update
Dean is still a strong Category 3 storm, moving westward. Hurricane watches are now up for Jamaica, and those there need to be prepared now for a major hurricane.
2 PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Dean is now a major hurricane, category 3, with 125MPH winds, moving westward. Aircraft Recon found high flight level winds in their latest run through, with a pressure of 961mb.
Model wise, the pushed a bit souther, while the moved east and north a bit, taking Dean barely to the west of New Orleans. While Dean will likely be a major threat anywhere it hits, that track would be a particularly bad one. That makes the an outlier, but it is adding some drama to the track forecast.
Basically, now is the time where model confidence is going down the tubes, and folks along from Mexico throughout the Gulf will need to watch. Dean may surprise us all.
(Portions from Thunderbird)
8:25 AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Dean is now in the Eastern Caribbean and the track models have begun to shift a bit north due to interactions with an Upper Level low, causing a real issue for some of the models. This means, now more than ever, that the entire Gulf should be watching it. Those in Jamaica should be prepared for a major hurricane, and the Caymans after that. The GFDL projects a very strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the later part of the run.
Dean itself appears to have shaken the dry air intrusion, and has begun another reintensification stage, already looking better on satellite, and the eye is once again visible on the radar out of Martinique, and recon aircraft are out there now as well.
6:15 AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Hurricane Dean has "shot the gap" between Martinique to the North and St. Lucia to the south. But clipping the southern part of Martinique more. It's looking a little ragged, most likely because of light shear and some dry air that got involved in the western side of the system. That should hold or weaken Dean at least for the next 12 to 24 hours, after that, conditions once again improve, so the next direct worry, Jamaica, needs to be prepared The official forecast takes it to category 4 by the time it reaches Jamaica, and after that water temperatures are high enough to support a Category 5, which some models project.
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
The upper level low around the Bahamas, mentioned earlier, is starting to have an affect on the models, mainly complicating things a bit, several models have shifted north overnight, but most continue moving it westerly. This increases the chance that it will make it into the Gulf Southwestern Central Gulf (Southwest Gulf, north of the Yucatan) in the official forecast from the . It still should be watched by the entire Gulf, however.
Original Update
Dean is holding hurricane strength as it approaches the leeward Islands, best of luck and godspeed to all those in the islands, Especially those like Martinique where the storm may cross directly over. Warnings are up for much of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles.
Dean isn't looking as organized as it was earlier, but it is still quite a powerful hurricane. Hopefully it will hold or weaken a bit before it crosses the islands.
After the islands, Hurricane Dean should continue on a west to west northwest track and pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 120mph (perhaps even higher). Dean should pass just south of Grand Cayman Island in the early hours of Monday morning and pass close to Cozumel, Mexico, late Monday evening - probably as a Category IV major hurricane. After clipping the northeast Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, current model trends suggest that Dean will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico and begin to re-strengthen. And upper level low near the Bahamas is one of the largest variables right now for the long range track, and is the wildcard.
Track confidence is high - the western extension of the Atlantic ridge should keep Dean on a west northwest track - well south of Florida. Those in the Gulf would be wise to continue watching the track of dean.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
San Juan, Puerto Rico Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Dean
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Dean
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dean
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dean (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Dean
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dean
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dean -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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blue flash
Registered User
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This is my all-time favorite satellite link. It really lets you see the relationship between weather systems. A shear-free environment ahead for Dean for several hundred miles.
www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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I think it's interesting to not the fact that the is paying attention to the ULL in the bahamas.
Even they acknowledge the fact that it may have an impact on the storm later in the forcast period.
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
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I noticed and Emily both struggled in the area that Dean is entering right now? Dean does not look as healthy as it did earlier. Is this a trend or just coincidence? We also all know what happened after those storms left the islands. Boom, monsters! Look out Caribbean.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here's the models that Emily had at the same relative longitude that Dean is at right now:
Emily was a little bit further south, however.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I hope Dean stays speeding along at this rate because if it does I believe it will outrun itself in the Caribbean and fall apart. I have seen it happen so many times before in the same situation that Dean is in. I just don't think it can sustain itself if it continues at this rate of speed. All of this talk about a Cat 4 or 5 and where it's going could hopefully all be for not if it can keep motoring along at this clip.
Shawn
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
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Loc: Israel
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OU,
That is just not likely. Dean is a well constructed system in an area of little shear. The whole idea that it will "out run itself" is almost silly. See .
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I've seen other storms with the same structure as well as perfect upper air patterns who have suffered the same fate of outrunning themselves. I can't remember the name off hand but about 3 or 4 years ago there was a storm in the same location as Dean is now that had everything in its favor to blow up into a monster. In fact, the official forecast was calling for it to turn into a monster, just like with Dean. However, that storm left everyone scratching their heads once it reached the central caribbean because it just fell apart...all because it was just going too fast to maintain itself any longer. Sure, I could easily be wrong,however, I could easily be right as well.
Shawn
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... looking at the late cycle runs i am getting in... seems to me that since 12Z this morning... the models seem to be getting wider at about day 4-5 and on... Still same general motion to the WNW... toward the Cancun area, but the tightly cluster runs we were seeing, seem to be going the other way... But so far the most models are in such good agreement in the short term. I expect if the outflow can get going near Jamica... we could see a very strong system, unless the upper pattern in western Carb. becomes less favorable. We shall see... its going to be bad in the islands tomorrow!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The great New England Hurricane of 1938 was moving close to 60mph,And it held togeather just fine.So I doubt going less than 30mph would kill a storm.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Another interesting thing is that interaction with land can always affect the track. If I recall from 2005, the forecast on was not very confident until it reemerged off the coast of Florida. Also, if you look on the 400 - 850 MB Layer Mean Wind Analysis, it seems that if Dean were to meet up with the system over the Bahamas, or it deepened, Dean could very well be pulled north. So basically it seems that the soon Dean were to seriously interact with the system, the farther north he would travel. Also, historically speaking, it seems that the National Hurricane Center forecasts for days 3 - 5 tend to be too far to the left (i.e. west). Examples of this include in 2004 (originally forecast to hit Biloxi, MS then hit Pensacola, FL), in 2005 (originally forecast to hit Port O'Connor, TX then hit at the LA-TX border), and in 2006 (originally forecast to hit the Florida Panhandle then hit the Miami Area). The northern Gulf for sure cannot be said to be "in the clear" at this point.
Jason
http://www.freewebs.com/jays_weather_center
Edited by weatherguy08 (Fri Aug 17 2007 12:13 AM)
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weather999
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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looking at the latest radar/sat. image loops as a basis, it appears dean's slightly 'deteriorated' satellite presentation has improved, looking more symmetrical.. an eye has also appeared on the martinique radar pictures.
my estimate is that dean will reach a higher end cat 4 in the days to come
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Greeneville, TN
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You can also make out a pin hole eye on the last IR loop.
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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EDIT: Do not open attachment on this post, it likely wont open up. Please open the attachment pasted on the next post after reading. Sorry about that, gang.
Well, I am very proud of the National Hurricane Center this evening. As always, they have thouroughy discussed the parameters of their forecast. Tonight, they have also recognized that there may be a forecasting problem with the models and they have strayed in a very positive way...indicating that surprises may come, despite the model agreement (In other words, they are implementing/leaning on their synoptic meteorology 6th sense that things may notbe as they seem). Also, I appluad them for specifically stating that the Gulfstream IVmission was a near environment flight. In other words, they indicated that the flight data did not sample the total area needed to make adequate model adjustments, with particular mention to days 3,4,5. This must include the upper Bahamas Low and other weather downstream...In the end, thisonly makes sense, they can't fly only one plane everywhere in a couple hours and get good data
Tonight, my concerns do grow regarding the Bahamas low. If you have seen my previous posts on the previous thread, you will recall my statements on the Bahamas cut off low, high pressure ridges, jet stream interaction, and etc. Those comments still apply. I do grow more concerned about the Bahamas low becuase it may now be tapping into the jet stream, forming a jet stream split and a legitimate trough that may add strength to the like feature that is south of the Bahamas Low. In additional, the Bahamas low may be getting some help/ooph in getting a trough going by an UpperLow around 52N,72W. Over the course of the day, my Water vapor analysis has evolved into a true 3-D analysis (looking at systems and their combined interaction to the East, West, North, and south of Dean). All seem to be players to some degree or another. You really need to watch dowstream, upstream, north and south with this one. I have posted an attachment that showns the probable formation of a jet stream split as of this current time frame, after viewing it, I invite you to go to the following water Vapor Link (Don't forget to mash on the HDW-high radio button to see the wind barbs): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 17 2007 01:25 AM)
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dem05
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Attachment repost....Sorry Folks! The picture was too big!!! DOH!  Trying again. Remeber to stay a max width of 600 pixels or less on photo/scanned image attachments.
Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 17 2007 01:21 AM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere
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 Having chased hurricanes for a good number of years, it would merely sound cliche' to state that each Hurricane track and landfall is unique. While each event involves differing steering mechanisms, along with distinct upper air conditions, these nuances sometimes introduce merely a wrinkle of sudden deepening or weekening or perhaps a tendancy to wobble due to a storms vorticity max rotating around the eye or perhaps a given land mass and the interaction with the approaching storm. I cannot help but remember comparing forecast models, only to be outwitted by one in particular - CLIPPER. While I remain a devout supporter of statistical data which would might support Dean to move on a predominant 275 to 285 degree heading, I cannot help but to defer some reference to Climatology and Persistance.
In the case of Hurricane Dean, a late July or August, a westward retrograding 594mb high ( or higher ) to move along with a hurricane is often a signal of primary steering for future storms that season. Somewhat puzzling to me is the practically trapped cut-off low, given the significance of the Plains ridging also in place. My first thought would be that with the upcomming digging trough along the E. U.S. Seaboard, that the cut-off would tend to be pulled N.E.ward. In many years, that loud "sucking sound" you hear, would be the sound of whatever Tropical Cylcone in the general vacinity getting sucked ahead and northward into the trough and up and out to the Atlantic storm graveyard. Given the fairly merged ridging however, this seems unlikely. Even the 0Z seems to slow the forward progression slightly, as compared to same forecast periods 24 hours ago.
While not a dramatic alteration to the forecast track, I do beleive that as the cut-off low is slowly pushed southwestward or westward, at some point Dean's forward motion should slow down. Depending on the time which Dean "catches" up with the influences of this mid to upper low, some wobbles or short term variations in course could occur. This could potentially raise impacting conditions to Haiti and Cuba, and potentially work to lessen a direct hit on Jaimaca if a jog north ensues. If this cut-off low is held practically stationary in the Gulf, it may not fully reflect down to the 500mb level, certainly would seem to impact Dean's outflow. Best case would be for some shear to inhibit further strengthening, along with Dean's inflow being interupted if brushing close to mountainous regions of Haiti or E. Cuba. Of course if this cut-off low is ejected southwestward ahead of Dean, then i've got $10.00 on Dean maxing out as a Cat. 5 in the W. Carib. ( but I do not see that happening ).
Those of you who read the Cyclone Discussion at 11:00pm this evening will notice that the data from the research flight was basically not recieved ( late, lost, or what? ). This is a shame, as the raw data which each forecast model is based upon, will likely be mostly unchanged - thus the mostly unchanged cluster of forecasts for days 3-5. I was eagerly awaiting the 0Z , but do not much reason to anticipate much variation from earlier runs today. As the NOAA plane continues to investigate upper air either tonight or tomm., I am actually expecting newer model runs ( either 12Z or later tomm. ) to start to introduce some more northward wrinkles to the long range ( and maybe even 24 hr - 48 hr. ) forecast tracks.
Regarding an earlier post regarding Dean possibly "imploding" due to forward speed, I'd equate those odds with the liklihood of a low latitude tropical cyclone producing lots of lightning and golf ball sized hail. Picture an Olimpic runner who is very fast. He does not eventually fall over because he is running so fast. Now picture that same Olimpic runner not looking ( just like in the movies ) and suddenly running "head high" into a tree limb. Now, thats my definition of "shear misfortune". For Dean, if an upper high remains over it, and without those pesky westerlies, than Dean can run as fast as it wants to.
( sorry about the long post )
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Clark
Meteorologist
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That New England "Hurricane" of 1938 was also likely very much as it was doing so, just like as it accelerated to 50+ mph in 2005. Different storm maintenance mechanisms at play there so they aren't directly comparable.
However, Shawn, moving at 25mph isn't really hurting Dean right now and probably won't; it's other factors that tend to combine with the fast forward speed to put a squash on weak disturbances and keep them from closing off low level circulations. Dean doesn't fall into that category at all right now; it's not some mid-level circulation extraordinare without anything at the surface. I don't think that's a concern right now.
Re: debate over where you want the storm to make landfall -- that's sorta getting borderline on decorum here on the forums. For interests in the US, yes, a Mexico landfall would be better; but remember, there are people in the other nations that would be dealing with it then as well. Also remember that there are people from other nations who do read this and other forums, and they aren't going to take too kindly to suggestions that it should hit them. Hoping that you don't want a storm to hit you is fine, as obviously very very few people ever do, but try to refrain from saying that it should hit somewhere else in particular.
All that said...onto Dean. The big player is going to be the upper low near Florida and how it evolves as it moves west over the next few days. How much interaction does Dean have with it, if any? The speeds of both features will determine that answer. Tied to that is the question of the ridge over the southeast US -- how strong will it build in, leading to how fast will it steer both the upper low and Dean? Will there be a weakness on its western side to help lift Dean more to the north as it enters the Gulf? Those east of the Mississippi River don't need to worry about this one; the same can probably be said about Louisiana too. Texas is still iffy, even though I think that Dean's ultimate track will probably clip the southern end of the state at most. That said, we've got 5-6 days to watch it and there will be plenty of time to make preparations and adjustments if need be.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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it looks based on radar, before the data goes away, that Dean is going to go right between the islands of Martinique and St. Lucia. It may pass the very close to Martinique, atleast the southern tip...... in about 4-5 hrs... Atleast its hitting in the morning, and maybe by the afternoon things could clear up and allow for the recovery clean-up to began! I see that one island has a population of around 89,000 and other of about 13,000.
**nice eyewall showing up on the radar, earlier**
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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There's a blowup of deep convection on the latest IR/AVN image, right after Dean bridged the gap. It looks as if Dean took a look at all of the hot water and seemingly ideal conditions ahead and said "This is what I've been looking for!"
Concerning the long-term track - the models still point to a central Texas landfall, at least the ones I've seen at WU and . Having said that, I really do not think it's approapriate to tell anyone in the Gulf that they can let their guard down this far out. Certainly it appears that Texas is under the gun, but there is a long time and a lot of uncertainty in the future track. It all depends upon the low, and what happens with it. I'm thinking landfall could be as far north as where Erin came ashore. Given Dean's large size, that positionng would produce effects further to the east, I think, so that Louisiana would get some strong winds, even if they didn't get the brunt of Dean's wraith. Plus... we all have seen how much the forecast can change over 5 days.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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