SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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A great post earlier about the fact that the was tending left in their forecast tracking on some storms. They do a masterful job, both in their forecasting, and discussions. Enjoyed the candidness on the 5 am this morning.
Now that Dean-O is entering warmer SST's...we'll all be puckering up a bit, ya think?
a sensing that Dean will track more northerly than plotted keeps naggin away...and reading one of the met's posts about Dean possibly reaching cat 5 status...whew.
next 5 days will be interesting. I appreciate the insight on this board. I'm am nothing but a novice...know surface info..certainly don't have a clue about much of the dynamics on steering currents...so each year I learn more. What a fascinating field.
Having a feeling about New Orleans again. or points east....
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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
.gif)
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Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
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Quote:
000
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
This should be up to 110 mph by 11 AM.
Clipped long advisory text
Edited by MikeC (Fri Aug 17 2007 12:34 PM)
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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
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Quote:
The great New England Hurricane of 1938 was moving close to 60mph,And it held togeather just fine.So I doubt going less than 30mph would kill a storm.
And reached 150 mph and was moving at over 20 mph and had reached 125 mph after leaving Florida while moving around the same speed, so we could see Dean reach Cat 5.
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Interestingly the 6z has Dean nipping the western tip of Cuba and approaching the TX/LA border as a Cat 5. One model run though. Is the run with the G-IV data?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
And reached 150 mph and was moving at over 20 mph and had reached 125 mph after leaving Florida while moving around the same speed, so we could see Dean reach Cat 5.
Given current trends and conditons, I'd say it's probably a good bewt that Dean will reach Cat 5 at some point on its trek across the Caribbean. I say that based upon recent history (the 2005 season), and the fact that the even hints at the possibility in the last several discussions, and the official forecast calls for a maximum wind of 145 mph. It's nearly impossible to predict intensity changes in Cat 4/5 hurricanes due to eyewall replacement cycles, so it's unlikely the would actually forecast Dean to reach Cat 5, I believe.
With the pressure back down to 970 and the satellite presentation improving by the hour again, I suspect Dean will be a Cat 3 at 11am, or at least very close to it, but I didn't expect the intensification to level off overnight.
I just looked at the latest vortex message. Closed eyewall now - it was open to the west yesterday. That's another indication that Dean is well on the way to a Cat 3... and beyond.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 17 2007 12:12 PM)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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I think Dean has finally been able to start mixing out the dry air to it's north and northwest.
That's a lot of what I believe was preventing it from rapidly intensifying yesterday. Now
there's not a lot in it's way to keep it from intensifying unless it ventures closer to the islands (DR, Hati, Cuba)
It's also good to see the mention the ULL in the Bahamas. I understand they normally
use caution before mentioning any changes until they see persistence.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Hey Clark,
I was looking at some Bouy info:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LKWF1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
Lake Worth has had winds from the W for the last few hours, and Station SPGF1 has been reporting winds from the E for the last couple of hours.
Since the ULL is in that general area, do you think that the surface winds could enhance the upper level feature?
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 68
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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"Lake Worth has had winds from the W for the last few hours"
This is a pretty typical summer situation to have an off-shore flow overnight and in the early morning. The sea-breeze will pick up very quickly this morning at the Lake Worth station and you will see winds flip quickly from west to east.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Latest recon shows an open eyewall again, but pressure down to 965 mb and maximum flight level winds of 100 kts, which would correspond to 90 kts ( ~ 105 mph) at the surface.
Dean appears very likely to evolve into a major hurricane. As OUShawn alluded to, it is unusual for strong hurricanes to be moving so quickly, but in this case it is simply due to unusually strong steering currents. Most fast-moving tropical systems that struggle do so because there is a lot of shear in the environment, but that isn't really the case here (though the rapid movement has helped to exacerbate some slight westerly shear so far).
The fast movement also comes into play down the line... if it does end up hitting the Yucatan, it will spend less time over land than most storms would in that scenario, leading to less weakening and a stronger hurricane to worry about downstream when it enters the Gulf (compared to what you would normally have with a Yucatan landfall scenario).
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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The high forward speed will also make the landfalling impact that much more intense. See the discussion in the third paragraph of this article on the '38 Long Island Express:
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/weather_history_38.html
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Aug 17 2007 02:18 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Where can I see that model run? I think Texas is keeping an eye on Dean just "in case". Erin brought flooding to parts of Houston
and the hill country.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Here is a link to the 06Z at 126 hrs:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...&hour=126hr
The is usually one of the best models, but this solution is an outlier compared to pretty much all of the other models.
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I was curious to knowif anyone may have a link, which shows the locations of where the G-IV jet conducted their air samples yesterday. This is one link that I don't have/can't seem to find. I'd be curious to see if they only sampled the High Pressure ridge and environment around Dean, or if they had an opportunity to sample some of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas as well.
Just a couple field notes this morning of some of the weather I will be watching today (that is a little further from Dean and may/may not have any impact in the end):
-The Bahahmas Upper level low is moving westward a bit faster than it was yesterday, will be interesting to see if that continues throughout the day.
- On the NW Atlantic Water Vapor images, I referenced that the Jet stream appeared to be more Zonal yesterday. As of today, it looks like the combination of the Bahamas ULL and another ULL over Canada and to the north of the Great Lakes have worked together to build a digging trough. This trough is not spreading southward into the Tennessee Area. May or may not have any implications on the strength of the ridge...but interesting to watch today. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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So did the Gulfstream get data, not get data, has the data been released yet, exactly what's going on with the data? If the Gulfstream data isn't being used, how does that impact the models, should we expect the unexpected?
--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Some the gulfstream data has made it in, but they will be flying out there for probably another 48 hours or so, intermixing bits and pieces. Yes I think it has had some affect already.
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
THE 12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE CONTINUES ON TIME. THE
NAM IS COMPLETE AND BEGAN AS SCHEDULE.
12Z RAOB RECAP...
YUX/71081 - SHORT TO 711 MB
MYNN/78073 - 10142 GND EQUIPMENT FAILURE
FSI/72355 - CORRECTED 500MB HEIGHT FROM 930M TO 5930M AND 877
TEMP FROM -55.7 TO 25.7
YAH/71823 - TTBB NOT IN FOR NAM...IN FOR
PASY/70414 - NOT IN FOR NAM...IN FOR
ONE FLIGHT LEVEL REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE NOAA G-IV.
I have not been able to find any information on the location of the G-IV path for this report... but we do know that the 12Z runs will reflect the information
Edited by CDMOrlando (Fri Aug 17 2007 03:05 PM)
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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To answer your question and eliminate any confusion that may occur on the forum/clarify my last post, the G-IV data. In the 5 PM Discussion, they referenced that the data was entered into the 06Z model runs and that the data showed that the high pressure ridge was relatively weaker than expected. So we know that the G-IV had an opportunity to sample the ridge. Unfortunately, there is a heck of a lot of real estate out there, and I am not sure that the G-IV was able to sample the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas as well. That's why I was wondering if there were any good links that showed their mission. My specualtion is that they did not have an opportunity to sample the air around the Bahama's, but I'd rather not speculate...'cuase my thinking on that may be incorrect.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Seems model runs is a bit flaky still, with the site still having issues it seems. Never loaded the 06Z run. It is over at PSU though, so here's the link if anyone wants to look:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Generally PSU has less models and hasn't updated their site in a long time, but at least it has the run.
Clark: Any idea why 's model run site keeps going down almost every morning?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Interesting read the 11am report.
Especially important was the final sentence: "IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY THAN YESTERDAY."
Looks like they are picking up on the model and ridge uncertainties that are creeping in.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I don't like the sound of that. Makes it even more likely that I could certainly be wrong in my thinking and we here in Texas could be facing a very dangerous storm next week. I was thinking there was no way that the Houston/Galveston area would have to worry about Dean but now the chances are starting to become a little too real for my taste.
Shawn
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