danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Can someone please give me a link to a site where the track/intensity models are updated frequently?
Thanks.
Front page.. 's Maps
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=04
Models ONLY UPDATE every 6 hours... Just as Official Advisories do.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Has anyone found a link to the 12Z ?? I keep refreshing but its still coming up 0z 17 Aug 
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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In recent years there has been a lot of debate going on about changing the 5 day cone, but more so removing the line in the middle. Personally, I prefer the 5 day cone and the line. With literally hundreds of web sites showing every model under the sun in various combinations the only one that really ever makes sense is the cone; there has to be one standard. If not everyone who has access to a model would be going nuts.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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To all our new members:
We have all the major links under "Storm Links" to the left, though that is a huge list if you don't know what you are looking for.
I also started a thread in Hurricane Ask/Tell of the sites I regularly use. Perhaps we can compile a list of "most used sites" there.
--RC
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Some interesting Info for the current storm and other observations from the HPC.
...TROPICS...
HURRICANE DEAN AIMS AT JAMAICA/YUCATAN AND NERN MEXICO/SRN TX. SEE
TPC/NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. UPSTREAM CONDS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER
WRN 3/4 OF THE TROPICAL ATLC/CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND TROP EPAC FOR
DEVELOPMENT OR SUSTAINING TROP SYSTEMS AS INDICATED BY CHI
VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL CHARTS OF /ECMWF AND /ECMWF OP
AND ENSEMBLE 200-850 WIND SHEAR FORECASTS. RECENT OUTSTANDING LONG
TERM FORECAST OF DEAN BY IS A HEADS UP TO PAY ATTENTION TO ANY
ADDITIONAL LONG TERM FORECASTS BY THIS MODEL ESP WITH CAPE VERDE
TYPE SYSTEMS. AT LEAST WAVES ARE NOTED BY ON RECENT RUNS
BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. FIRST COMES INTO THE BAHAMAS
LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SECOND COMES INTO THE WINDWARDS. EVER
AGRESSIVE CANADIAN DEPICTION OF A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDS INDICATED BY OTHER MODELS ESP WITH THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM LATE
NEXT WEEK. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
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MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Missouri, USA
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i like using... http://www.stormpulse.com/ just another site
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I added some thoughts on Dean to a new blog post, since it's more of something not entirely relevant quite yet but more significant for down the road. Basically, it details the battle I and other meteorologists will be watching over the next day or so between the storm and the various upper level features out ahead of it. Once we get some better answers to how that will evolve, probably tomorrow, the Gulf track forecast should become clearer.
Quick edit: got some comments that my blog post may not have been as clear as it could have been, for which I apologize. I've edited it to hopefully make it a bit clearer.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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12Z model is not good to look at. It takes the system across the tip of Haiti as a category 3-4, then strengthens it to category 5 as it passes between Cuba and Jamaica and keeps it that strong until it crosses Cuba. Then restrenthens it to category 5 heading into the Louisiana coast.
Let us hope that this model is wrong.
The HWRF also passes the storm across the tip of Haiti and then between Jamaica and Cuba. Then it swings it more southward across the tip of the Yucatan. It maintains about 1 category less at all times than the . The HWRF ends before it impacts the Texas coast, but the track is clear that it is heading to Texas.
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anomaly18
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
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nice site/graphics. thanks for posting.
Quote:
i like using... http://www.stormpulse.com/ just another site
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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The 5:00 track looks like it's actually further south than before.
Shawn
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I don't think so.
The "eye" path is North of the middle of Jam.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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The makes track adjustments left and right as the storm continues it's forward motion.
A lot of these are based on what the storm is doing now, motion wise, and what it will do in
the long term. The 5pm cone is slightly further north upto the SE Gulf and then looks to be
less curvature to the WNW late in the forcast period. Expect that to change slightly every
advisory.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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No, I'm talking about the ending result. It looks like they have it hitting further south (Mexico) than before. They did say they can't count out the even though it's the outliner because it has always done so well with these storms. Stay tuned!!
Shawn
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Read the discussion, all they did was update the existing track and position; they did not alter it. If they alter it, it is specically mentioned. The does an excellent job explaining their position, there really is no need to attempt to read between the lines (no pun intended).
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Fri Aug 17 2007 05:05 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest forecast track does look like it is slightly further south at the end of the period than the last one, but not in any significant way. The forecast will remain roughly the same until there is a change in the model consensus or a stronger signal that the storm is going to deviate from the track.
It is important to keep in mind that the steering regime will not be consistent over the next several days, so short-term changes in motion may not end up reflected in the long term. For example, Dean could drift a little further north than expected in the short term (as it already has a little today), but if the ridge builds in to the north, it could end up taking a more westerly track in the longer term. Or the opposite could occur. I will be surprised if the eventual track is as much of a straight line as the forecast indicates, though overall it could still end up being a good forecast.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Man, the last visible is showing a well defined eye...very well rounded and looks to be pretty good size.
Shawn
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Watching the beginning of the 18Z operational run...seems to be struggling with the short-term intensity of Dean. Shows lowest central pressure of 1002 mb at 36 hours.
Dean is, and should be, a wee bit lower than that pressure-wise. 
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
The latest forecast track does look like it is slightly further south at the end of the period than the last one, but not in any significant way. The forecast will remain roughly the same until there is a change in the model consensus or a stronger signal that the storm is going to deviate from the track.
It is important to keep in mind that the steering regime will not be consistent over the next several days, so short-term changes in motion may not end up reflected in the long term.
I agree with you. I went back to the 's graphics archives and looked at their track. It had it bouncing around all over the place for several days, from west of FL to coming in at Punta Gorda and everywhere in between. I had forgotten that.
Everyone needs to keep in mind-- no one should get hung up on the track right now. It can vary widely from day to day. What it shows now might or might not be what it looks like next week.
Again, everyone in the Gulf should be watching this storm to see what it does. But worry or panic from anyone or wishcasting it will/won't go somewhere is kind of pointless at this time. There is no good that can come from fixating on a US landfall at this point beyond scaring the pudding out of newbies and unregistereds who are looking to this forum for more information.
Follow the site, follow this site, but keep in mind that at this point, NO place along the Gulf coast is "safe" until the storm gets closer to land.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
Edited by madmumbler (Fri Aug 17 2007 05:53 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Here is the link to the Bouy that the eye of Dean should pass over @ 15.1N 67.5W So what it's about two hundred ,miles away, traveling at 21mph. Roughly ten hours right?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059
The info should be interesting.
Conditions at 42059 as of
2150 GMT on 08/17/2007:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Chewing on things over here. Using Mark I eyeball, The storm is continuing to push ever so slightly north of the projected path. As has been pointed out earlier, there is a slight bias in the later forecast time frames to the left (keeping the storm further left than projected). Couple that with storms rarely keeping such a straight as an arrow path (call it climatology and biases), and it's very easy to see why the could be suspicious of the forecast paths on days 4 and 5. Toss in the model uncertainty (and if certain models don't hold onto the system, then how reliable are those models going to be?) and you have every reason to treat the forecast path on days 4 and 5 as little better than coin flips.
Of course, all this could be thrown out the window as the south east is literally baking underneath the high pressure (which is supposed to incidentally push Dean west to west north west) so it's quite possible that either the heat wave doesn't break a bit and dean continues the path, or something does come in and dean takes a more northerly course.
All of this is of course pointing towards a great 'i don't know' as far as where Dean is going. If i had to hazard any sort of guess, I'd say it's going to continue to track a hair to the right of the path and come through just north of Jamaica, brush the western tip of Cuba and from there it's anyone's guess.
I'd also say it's not going to reach cat 5 (before entering the gulf) if it follows the path I think it will. simply too much interaction with land to wind up that hard. Now the biggest question that comes to mind, with all the heat content in the gulf, if it makes it in there relatively intact, with all that forward speed, there wont be time for any upwelling to hinder development, so it could simply slurp up all that energy and chug along like a freight train into somewhere, which also means if it keeps cruising along at 20+ MPH, it's going to get where it's going really quick. and people could get caught off guard in a very bad way (which is a nightmare scenario any way you look at it).
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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