danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
In reading the lastest advisory it says tropical force winds extend out 205 miles. If this storm goes across the tip of the Yucatan or between it and Cuba. Wouldn't the Florida Keys feel tropical force winds?
This link will update, (I think), with the probabilities of an area/ location receiving Tropical Storm force winds.
Hurricane Dean-Tropical Storm force wind swath
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using a mapping program that I have.
For Tropical Storm force winds to occur in Key West, with a radius of 205nm.
Dean would have to pass over the Isla de Juvidad-Isle of Youth, or just to it's west.
Something strange is going on with Dean...
A Major Hurricane with 145mph winds should be more symmetrical than Dean is.
The latest IR loop from GHCC shows some strange Vortice swirls spinning off of the Eye.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
And the latest enhancement shows that Dean has lost nearly 70% of his higher cloud tops over the last few hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 18 2007 04:12 AM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Something strange is going on with Dean...
A Major Hurricane with 145mph winds should be more symmetrical than Dean is.
The latest IR loop from GHCC shows some strange Vortice swirls spinning off of the Eye.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
And the latest enhancement shows that Dean has lost nearly 70% of his higher cloud tops over the last few hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
That's odd... as best I can tell, it doesn't appear to be an issue of cooler SST's, shear or dry air.... And I'm naturally going to defer to Clark that an is still several hours away....
Perhaps a diurnal fluctuation?
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Allison
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
Something strange is going on with Dean...
Yes, I saw the same thing!
It almost appears as if Dean is beginning to separate at the top.
Can hurricanes actually tear apart or spin off another system?
Even though I rarely post, they always seem to end up in the Graveyard and I'm just praying this one will last long enough so I can see an answer.
Thank you as this is one heck of an exciting and addicting night!!! 
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.67 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.6 °F
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059&unit=E&tz=EST
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Miss Christine
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Hi all, long time fan of this site. This is only my second time posting since 1998. Ignore me if you wish (or delete me). With the ridge pushing south, the way I "think" I see it, it's going to miss (South) Jamacia and the U.S. It has moved South and more westerly. I think the ridge will keep it well south of the U.S. Anywhoo, I know you don't like these kinds of posters so I'll mossey along. Link to my claims:
Miss Christine
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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charlottefl
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It appears Dean is getting close to an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye appears to be contracting on IR
satellite imagery. It should be interesting to see how an eyewall replacement cycle will affect short term track
changes. It also appears Dean is getting ever closer to interacting with the ULL in the Bahamas. Should be an
interesting night for model output.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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That does look strangly odd. I am not too sure about if it can form a new storm or not, but I do know that according to
http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/3299.php?from=91170
that outer rainbands can form a new eye wall around the existing one. Maybe that is what Dean is doing? But the sataline images do seem something out of the ordinary than what I have ever seen.
Here is the link for the hurricane eyewall replacement cycle
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-03/uow-hcf022307.php
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Sat Aug 18 2007 04:37 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Looking at past hurricanes (only have visible, not IR), looks like there are swirls coming off the eye in intense hurricanes. I wish I had more resolution on the IR.
Reference:
Isabel's eye: http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov
Katrina's eye: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2005/KATRINA/images/Katrina-eye-closeup.gif
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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After studying the aforementioned sat loops I can say with some assurance that Dean is not doing anything unusual, nor is it separating or becoming two storms. The fluctuations you see in the loop are entirely reasonable...hurricanes pulse in intensity and the will reflect this, and is reflecting this. The GHCC IR loop is showing mesovortices rotating around the center...again, entirely normal and seen in strong hurricanes. Dean is extremely impressive on IR this evening, and is doing nothing unusual or rare....it is behaving just as a Category 4 storm should.
I don't see any eyewall contraction yet, and there has been no indication from Quikscat or recon of an outer eyewall forming, so I would say we are a bit away from an ...it certainly does not appear to be imminent.
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Jason Kelley
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Just watching
Registered User
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Dean almost looks like elongated like it is trying to turn. Is this temporary?
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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what do you mean elongated and trying to turn??!
What website are you using to look at the images of Dean??   
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Just watching
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well.. looking at the sats.. it appears to me that the rapid intensification is over... notice in this image loop of cloud tops IR that it seems the system has vented all it can for the short time... notice how the cloud tops are warming and the eye appears to be shrinking on sats.. now that may be that high cirus is covering it up some, but usually i think its a sign of a contracting eyewall...
Clark, was the 85hz image was from 6pm cdt this evening?
I thought i noticed from one vortex to another after that... in little over an hour that the eyewall contracted about a mile... that seems like pretty big to me...in just an hour... (i may have read the data wrong)... but also noticed that the dewpoint dropped pretty good there for a few hrs inside the eye... I do think we will see a Cat 5 some time on Saturday... with another good run of intensification late saturday...
**Just looked at the hrd 1930Z surface wind analyses from todays data/invest...*** storm is a classic... Strongest wind region on the north to east side wrapping around.. **a decent region of the 100mph winds on that side too***
this is off the FTP... may not be able to view it? 1930Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 05:13 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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wxman said it in a well inform paragraph that this is typical for a Cat 4 system. Christine I saw your post, you could be right about going south of Jamaica but even if it doesnt....cant go away from the models that still say Mexico landfall. Still watching the upper low near FreePort Bahamas... I still wonder if it will move as fast as the models say. Btw dean should turn more wnw tomorrow as it gets past the ridge lying 65-68W.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We don't have the vortex data message yet, but we do have a near vortex read showing 113 30-sec FL winds and 106 surface winds. Looks like it is weakened slightly.
From URNT15:
045830 1449N 06629W 6958 02768 9525 +175 +105 296101 108 097 033 00
045900 1451N 06628W 6976 02659 9480 +128 +128 289113 117 106 035 03
045930 1452N 06626W 6930 02635 9380 +144 +142 279079 095 079 024 03
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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For those of you who are new to storm tracking....use water vapor with EXTREME caution. Water vapor is a poor choice for looking at storm structure...it only images a relatively thin slice of the atmosphere centered around 600 mb. If you are trying to look at mid and upper level features (such as ULL, etc) WV is a fine choice...for discerning storm features is it a very poor choice. As far as sats are concerned, Vis is king, but at night use IR instead of WV.
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Jason Kelley
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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agree, they made the last pass i think for the night.... *inbound*
at 04:59:00Z they were at 14.85N 66.47W at an alt. of (~ 20.60 inHg) 2,659 meters (~ 8,724 feet)
(~ 27.99 inHg) The highest winds were - From 289° at 113 knots (From the WNW at ~ 129.9 mph)... (a 10 sec fl. lvl wind of 117kts)
**air temp at 65F at 8,500ft.*** last data i got has them inside the eye... SFMR has a surface measure of 106 knots*
Looks like the pressure may have went down some more... ? (around 931mb?) will no soon when vortex is out
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 05:19 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
We don't have the vortex data message yet, but we do have a near vortex read showing 113 30-sec FL winds and 106 surface winds. Looks like it is weakened slightly.
From URNT15:
045830 1449N 06629W 6958 02768 9525 +175 +105 296101 108 097 033 00
045900 1451N 06628W 6976 02659 9480 +128 +128 289113 117 106 035 03
045930 1452N 06626W 6930 02635 9380 +144 +142 279079 095 079 024 03
Can't say that for sure...that is only a point sample of one side of the storm, not the entire storm itself...there very well could be (and will be) higher wind speeds elsewhere...the wind field around a hurricane (especially those with mesovortexes like this one) is NOT symmetric.
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Jason Kelley
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Looks like I was premature. Definate strenthening!
150 kt (@89 degrees) FL winds; 121 kt surface.
But with reduction from FL, 155 mph (135 kt) surface winds. Borderline Category 5!
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050330 1506N 06627W 6944 02705 9478 +103 +103 096136 148 999 999 05
050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05
050430 1508N 06627W 6991 02795 9990 +075 +999 086143 146 112 040 01
050500 1510N 06627W 6963 02862 9749 +071 +071 090134 138 104 034 00
050530 1511N 06627W 6964 02897 9791 +069 +069 092122 123 095 038 03
050600 1511N 06627W 6964 02897 9802 +072 +072 094120 123 095 033 03
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