Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
there flying through from SW to the NE... no doubt there is stronger winds coming... kinda weird... that in a 1min in 30sec... flt. levl winds went from 130mph... to 30 mph.. ... there out of the NE part of the eye and climbing... vortex coming soon! I think i saw a 929mb reading... will see?
**opps missed it by a mb
URNT12 KNHC 180522
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/05:00:30Z
B. 14 deg 55 min N
066 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 2498 m
D. 105 kt
E. 193 deg 004 nm
F. 291 deg 117 kt
G. 197 deg 005 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 12 C/ 3044 m
J. 20 C/ 3055 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C13
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 154KT AT 05:04:00 Z
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 05:31 AM)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
[delete - storm hunter beat me to the Recon data]
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 18 2007 05:27 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
For those using the HDOBs to track Recon.
The last message was sent just prior to the SW Eyewall penetration. Hence, the weaker windspeeds.
The next message should be more indicative of the current NE Quadrant strength.
Check the lat/ longs.. They are going North and East.
Flying from the SW Quadrant TO the NE Quadrant.
THe NE Quadrant is normally where the highest wind speeds will be found.
Also new to 2007. The Max Flight Level WInd Speed on the inbound leg- into the EYE.
Is amended as necessary on line "P". IF the outbound Max Flight Level Wind Speeds are higher than they were when the vortex message was transmitted.
This can be done using a "Corrected " Vortex Data Message.
www.ofcm.gov/nhop/07/nhop07.htm
|
PA101
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
|
|
Long time lurker (at least three years) and finally have something to add to the discussion.
Those of us wondering if the is out to lunch this week may not have long to wait. Until now the has been an outlier beginning at 48-72 hours but has been within the model consensus during at least the first 24-36 hours of each run.
As of the 00Z run the is predicting significant northward movement Real Soon Now and forecasts the COC will pass over extreme southwestern Hispanola early Sunday morning. If it sees something (maybe up around 300mb given the power of the storm) that all the other models are missing it should start to verify during the day Saturday.
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
i just noticed that is actually FORECASTING Dean to hit Cat V intensity--they dont do this very often
|
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
|
|
I know Dean is the most immediate threat, but looks like all the models are showing something developing in the next few days that may effect Florida.
--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
Edited by Lake Toho - Kissimmee (Sat Aug 18 2007 07:27 AM)
|
Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
|
|
Quote:
I know Dean is the most immediate threat, but looks like all the models are showing something developing in the next few days that may effect Florida.
Can you aim me to where you're looking? According to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ the is the only 00Z run (of 6) that spins anything up.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Re: other systems
There is an abundance of tropical cyclogenesis potential in the Atlantic, and a few model runs want to spin one or more of the most conducive areas up. Currently, the entire stretch from just east of Dean all the way back to the Cape Verde islands is a veritable breeding ground.
Getting back to Dean,
Dean has been flirting with a pinhole eye all evening/night. No signs of an , as some have suggested. The appearance of one is merely the eye tightening up a bit.. normal fluctuations. However, given the occasional foray into a pinhole eye-like scene, it is worth nothing that the TCHP in the western Caribbean is running potentially even higher now than around this time in 2005. Dean may be able to pull off an all-out while in the western Caribbean. The current forecast out of for a Cat 5 before crossing over the Yucatan, while not a certainty, more than likely did not cost them one single bead of worry sweat that they were stretching a bit. Six more mph and Dean's there.
With respect to the models which have consistently forced Dean's future track to the southernmost ends of the guidance envelope, all of these have initialized him poorly. While one doesn't want to completely throw them out, you just about can, again, because they are not tracking Dean. They have been tracking and creating forecasts based on a weak Cat 1 or Tropical Storm.. and some have even initialized Dean as a neutral core. Nuts. This is garbage in - garbage out forecasting. Stick with the , HWRF, and certainly , for now.
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Looks like Dean could make it to Cat 5 at anytime. The 154kt flight level wind measured by RECON earlier would support it, but evidently these winds havent made it to the surfasce enough to warrant the upgrade. Looking at the latest IR imagery, there are no current indications of an , but these are likely as Dean strengthens further. With the high heat content, the low shear, and the track far enough to the south of Hispaniola, he has little to hinder him. Jamaica looks set to get a pounding, as do the low-lying Caymans. Could be pretty catastrophic for these islands. Interesting how models continue to diverge on where Dean will go once past the Caymans, and just goes to show how predictable these things are, and how much everyonhe around the Gulf, Yucatan, and Cuba really need to watch closely, and prepare just in case.
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I am generally not a model watcher because of cynicism towards technology being a person designed entity and therefore intrinsically flawed. But, I have been running water vapor loops in the last two hours showing the past 12 or more hours of hurricane and atmospheric changes. To summarize, all the key elements for steering are changing rapidly. I have noticed a big high pressure coming down from the northwest which seems to be moving slightly faster to the east than any of the ULLs are moving to the west. I will make a small prediction that this pressure system will change everything 180 degrees in the next 12 hours or so. I am not sure whether that will take Texas and points west totally out of the loop or not, but the hurricane's rapid progress forward has already dropped by 7 mph reported . I am watching closely due to a sick family member in the Panhandle. I will have to know when to leave Central Florida if the 180 turn should occur so that I can avoid the evacuation traffic from Key West. I am watching closely and intelligently. I would recommend others do the same. I believe the time for model watching has come to an end and we should be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
Just getting home from work and looking at everything. As some mentioned, it's getting close to showdown time with the models re: a more northward movement or the continued westward track. I think it's still up in the air, but I have noticed since I got home and threw up a sat loop that Dean finally got off of ROUTE 15 and decided to take a jump poleward. The 6Z models take Dean to near 70W at 16N and the takes it to 70W at 17N. We shall see.
--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Definitely has the north component in the track this am... its running just a tad north of the projected forecast track but not by any thing significant (a few miles at best)... certainly got that stair step effect in motion... lord I would NOT want this monster approaching or anywhere near me...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-ir2.html
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
I hear ya Frank. Not that I didn't know before, but August 29, 2005 gave me a whole different outlook on things. I wish it could be where no one was going to have to deal with Dean, but someone has to. If that someone is New Orleans, this city is done. I can only hope and pray that it's not us again and that whoever does have to deal with this will get more help than we did. That's all I can do now.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
I feel your pain NLU.... we've done better over here in Biloxi but it has been oh so slow... what gets me is I've tracked storms for many years but I can't ever recall so many monster storms that have developed since 2004... now we have another super storm, and its our first hurricane of the year.. If this storm were to come anywhere near the SE LA or MS coast you could practically write off these areas for decades.. when you get hit by a super storm it changes your way of life for years... Dean is going to do just that to whomever it hits... it just CAN'T be us... not for a long time
Edited by Frank P (Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 AM)
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
Amen Frank! Hey, are my eyes getting tired or is Dean really taking a jump more north than I even realized at first. I just stopped the loop at 15.0 and 66.8 and that was at 0715. The last frame at 0945 looks like 15.3 and 67.4. Defintely more WNW in the last three hours or so. Trend??????
I am going to get some zzzzz's just incase it's my eyeballs.
--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 94
|
|
Dean has been at 15.0 all night and yes it did move more nw erly in the last few frames. The question is
trend or wobble. Only time will tell.
|
Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
|
|
Dean does appear to be continuing a more wnw track for last four hours. Maybe the ULL is beginning to exert an influence, or could be just a big wobble.
Look at this Link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
|
VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
|
|
Based on the 08:00 position compared to the 5:00 am forecast track, it is only about 12 - 13 north of anticipated location.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
New recon.
139
URNT12 KNHC 181212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/11:51:20Z
B. 15 deg 23 min N
067 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2437 m
D. 121 kt
E. 5 deg 008 nm
F. 137 deg 145 kt
G. 050 deg 008 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 23 C/ 3041 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
SMALL HAIL INBOUND NE QUAD
RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
That does not look like a wobble at all. That's a definitely poleward movement as you can see on the visible imagery.
(Time Sensitive) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
