MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Here's a place for the speculation and gut feelings on what will occur with 92L.
Florida? Carolinas? Further North? Out to sea?
Where do you think it will go?
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dsawyer78
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: Chapel Hill, NC
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My guess is that it will come ashore around Charleston, SC and then continue through the Piedmont region of NC and move right up the east coast.
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Dalton
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Marcus
Unregistered
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I'm curious, the image at http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL922007mlts.gif?159569788 indicate the invest is coming out of the north WEST of the Caribbean, but the SSD image (which looks to be the mainpage image) has it out off the north EAST. I'm assuming what I can see is correct, but in case I'm missing something...
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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image is lagging updating right now it'll fix itself within an hour or so, but right now it's showing an "older" 92L and not the new one at all.
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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I am so not an educated weather person here, but I think it all depends on the steering and strength of the high. I live in West Palm Beach, and am traveling to New York this week, so I will be watching behind me to see if I need to rush back.......
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flnelson
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
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I think we have to wait until the and UKMET runs are available before any suppositions can be intelligently made.
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
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Mike's preliminary "cone of error" (Miami to Cape Hatteras) looks good to me right now. Will this develop, and will the ridging be strong and persistent? If the answers are yes, my gut feeling says we'll especially need to watch this from my neck of the woods (Broward County) up through the Space Coast and Daytona Beach. Way too early to tell for sure, though.
Edited by saluki (Mon Aug 20 2007 11:26 AM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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So this is the forming system that everyone was talking about yesterday that has nothing to do with Dean but is going to affect Florida?? I live in Miami right now, and the weather is at 83 degrees which is cool and the wind effect definatly adds to this. We are shown to have thunderstorms all of this week, so what do you think 92L will do? Are you expecting this to be a TS? Hurricane? What? because I just want to be prepared.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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A bit more early reads on track and intensity of 92L:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
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Strmtckr, Intensity is difficult to forecast with young systems. One parameter Mets use is shear which keeps storms from developing vertically. This link shows shear tendency decreasing ahead of 92L. Just how much this one factor will allow this (potential) storm to develop remains to be seen.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
I think I am seeing some vorticity around 24N 59W on the RGB loop.
Hard to believe things have gotten this active in a matter of a couple of weeks. Could that be a function of the ?
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Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
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Well at last - have been whittering on about potential Felix since 1200z 08/16/07, and now there is beginning to be a hint that they weren't on crack after all!
I have been watching it with interest for days and so I have to stick with the route through into the GOM, although that would be a very unfortunate direction given the SSIs in there - and it would be tracking through a different, and still hot, area to Dean.
Hopefully it will zing off into the Atlantic to spin some fish.
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Brian B
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Pensacola
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I would like to see some of the model runs later today before we can really get a good estimate of the track forecast. Looking at some of the models this morning and the satellite images, I'm very interested in how the deep layer ridge is going to be progressing over the next day or two. There doesn't seem to be much upstream that will kick it out of the southeast anytime soon. The upper low north of Montana has a few vort maxes coming around but it looks like everything is going to ride around the high to the north. Looking at the upper level vorticity, the ridge seems like it will either break down and reform a little further westward, or just continue on its westward track, allowing what should be named Felix at the time to move westward towards the coast. My biggest concern is timing. Timing of the ridge movement, and timing of the shear relaxing are going to be vital to the track of this storm.
I have a particular interest in this storm as my sister just got married this past weekend and they went on a cruise for their honeymoon. they were supposed to go to belize, jamaica and the rest of the western caribbean, but thanks to dean, they're going to key west and the bahamas. I'd really hate for this one to mess up the rest of the cruise for them.
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FSU Meteorology Grad
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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This is in the lounge because I can't find too much to back it up with, but here's my crazy "not enough information yet to sound right" thinking:
From the very early model runs and trends, looks like highest probability is Central Florida, followed by south Florida, then Georgia, and also a "stall out" if something takes too long, most likely it'll shoot across the peninsula around Central Florida and end up in the Gulf.
Skeeto's down this afternoon, too, not sure why.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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my uninformed guess would be close you Mike's with west palm to daytona as "landfall" my question is what are we really watching though. This afternoon it doesn't look as good as it looked this morning.
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jcvitte
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Dade City Fl
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If it did enter mid-state Fl. and exit into the GOM, that would be a scary prospect for the folks in Texas or La. I would think. We could use more rain for the water table here in Pasco Co. What is your thought about where it may go after that, or is it just too early to tell? I thought I noticed more circulation yesterday afternoon. Seems more disorganized today, but as I have observed, that is no indicator. Can't even begin to tell you, how much I have learned by watching this site, you guys do a great job.
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and in the end, the love you take
is equal to the love you make
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Looking at the models it seems they are tracking 92L from its southern side. From what I am reading the best chance for development is on the northern side.
???????????
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 274
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
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Yo Mike, in your mines eye, if this system was to impact us in central Florida, what would be the time line. ( this question goes out to the other Mets also).......Weatherchef.
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Brian B
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Pensacola
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If it stayed at its current speed, probably about 3-4 days. More than likely, it would be closer to 4. It doesn't look impressive at all this afternoon. There is not much, if any, circulation and it is getting sheared apart pretty well right now.
Edited by Brian B (Mon Aug 20 2007 06:03 PM)
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GlenJohnson
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 48
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Wife is flying out of Sanford early Thursday, and coming back on Sunday. What's the thought on how it will affect her? Very new at this, but I think we in Northern Florida are past due for some nasty stuff. Thanks all, appreciate the info you provide here.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2013 Forecast - 20,12,6
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onmybroomnow
Unregistered
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I presently live in the western upstate part of SC and own a home in Orlando as well, which I was planning on going to this weekend. I just looked at the map of 92L and I am having flashbacks. I know tropical is nothing compared to a category 5 but after going through 10 days without power or water one feels compelled to panic. If this storm does hit the spacecoast think it will already be advanced to a hurricane by then?
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