allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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1. Southern Carribean, and European Model have at least a depression in a few days as the has a strong TS.. there is convection in this area and it should be watched.
2. May sound stupid but it is the North Atlantic, a low that is developing has the potential to become semi-tropical as the cyclone phase maps on most of the reliable models show this storm transitioning into a warm core storm for a bit then back to extra-tropical.. something like Hurricane Noel (2001) may form. I'm not sure if warm core is exactly tropical but I will watch it..
GFS - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07082406/35.html
UKMET - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07082400/26.html
These are the two relaible models that show a possible warm core transition for a bit.
3. A swirl in the Central Atlantic with some convection blow ups has a few peoples eyes on wunderground blogs but I wouldn't give it much of a chance.
So it is possible that we could see Felix in a few days.. I'd give it a 50/50 chance.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Fri Aug 24 2007 01:41 PM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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|
I have been studying the models lately with the large low in the north Atlantic.. , , UKMET chnage this low into a warm core storm for about a day or two, the tropical formation probability has a green color which equals a 4% chance of tropical developent. So something like Hurricane Noel (2001) could possibly form out of this low.
The low on satellite looks impressive but I need more of a blow up of convection to call it at least "subtropical", which may happen overnight during durinal maximum.. it's really something to watch.
The , UKMET, and shows another strong CV wave off of Africa in a few days, lets just watch and see what happens.. (ALMOST) has it recurving at 384 hours but if you look closely, it would turn more westward due to a strong high pressure system in back of a trough, sort of what we thought would happen with Dean, it would make more of a northernly movement but not enough to recurve it.. days away and lot's of time to watch it.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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