doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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94L well I can see why they put an invest on that system. Certainly has some circulation with a west component. Mottled convection though. While, once these things start to gather convection changes can occur relatively rapidly, I am not sure that will happen to this one. Dean had a well defined circulation at this stage and was able to withstand the forward speed issue and develop. The circulation in this is ill defined and the speed issue will impede development, IMO. I would not expect anything until it gets into the E. Carribean and slows down and gets better moisture support.
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doug
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
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Good morning to you all! So, now we have Invest 94L. Based upon the latest satellite imagery, there is clear cyclonic turning and now is developing some deep convection over the center. I do agree that it does need better moisture support and will not rapidly develop like Dean, but nonetheless, it will develop in my opinion. We will need to wait another day to really get a handle on this system and its future. But for right now, it is something to monitor.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well... the wave in the carb. is getting better organized, BUT it looks like its going to run into central america. Interesting a few models, like Hank mentioned are trying to flare up a "frontal" type low of the SE coast in a few days, will see what happens... With 94L... i think if it can beat the Dry air to the NE of it, it may have a chance... when it gets closer to the islands... I don't think this is going north of the islands right now, like the Europ. model is forecasting.... i think this is another wave that will enter the carb. down in a few days. Also a few models are still trying to throw off some waves from Africa that may be something to watch.
Vis Shot
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 28 2007 02:03 PM)
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Storm Surfer
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Two lows are spinning just off the coast , the larger of the two is a couple hundred miles east of the Outter banks and the other is near the Georgia South Carolina border . The larger low is in some pretty dry air but the smaller has much more convection. Which one will win out?
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Mercy before self sacrafice
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Wilmington, NC, afternoon discussion on the disturbance off the coast:
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOST OF THE MODELS DO WANT TO
SPIN-UP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROUGH-LINE...BUT ALL
DIFFER ON POSITION AND STRENGTH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT IF
ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD BE OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL
DAYS. INITIALLY...FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE IN SUBSIDENCE-ZONE ON
BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE MAY GET DRAWN BACK TO
W AHEAD OF DEVELOPING E COAST TROUGH BY END OF PERIOD.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well, i think they might put a little more stock in 94L in the 5:30 ....
1902 UTC - DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070828 1800 UTC
This will need watching more over the next few days... looks like most models are taking it into the carb.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Things are starting to get perky again. Obviously 94L is at the forefront of most discussions, as well it should - it has the benefits of a respectable low level cyclonic turning, favorable latitude, some convection already present... and time. 93L probably ran out of time (ocean) before it could get officially logged into 2007.
Also worth noting, the surface wave and associated mid-level low which is crossing through and just north of Nicaragua today. It appears that the mid-level circulation is not running amok inland, and that if anything, there has been some slight pull more to the northwest, than due west over the last 18 hours or so, which appears to have allowed some subtle curved banding to develop today, most evident near 17N 85W, and to either side of that down to about 15N, and with some inflow from the SE all the way down to 10N. Despite being so close to and/or partially overland, just a little more development here could warrant an invest tag, as well.
One final note, there appears to be a good bit of SAL mixing in from east of about 55W and extending all the way from the to roughly 20N (even beyond this, but that seems to be containing the especially healthy amounts of it). Could act to hold back 94L a bit longer. If 94L stays too weak and too far south it will clearly run itself into South America with no further development in this basin.
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