MikeC
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Like usual with late August, you can't leave the tropics alone for a week without something happening. After a few quiet days we have a few things to watch, nothing terribly imminent, however.
#1 is a disturbance East of the Yucatan, which is too close to land to do much, but may have to be watched later Movement is to the west, however, any northward component from due west would bring the center over water - it'll be close. Significant rainfall likely for Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan.
#2 is being tracked as 94L, and may form into a depression over the next few days. This is something to watch as it may affect the Caribbean. Currently it is heading west and the early model predict runs show it going into the eastern and southern Caribbean. But as usual, wait for trends to develop to get a real foothold on it. Currently the models aren't really keen on developing it. If this system persists, however we may have something. Odds are at the moment that it won't amount to much.
#3 is a disturbance Southeast of Wilmington, NC, which is worth watching if the storm persists over the next few days. We need to watch this as the ocean temperatures in the area are plenty warm enough to support a storm. Right now shear and other conditions are keeping it in check.
More to come on all of the above soon.
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mar32366
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94L is weak as thunderstorms are firing up to the southwest of the low pressure. This may be the start of development but I will be more sure if this expands overnight. There seems to be a weak outflow developing. Its entering a better area for development and rate this as a 4 tonight. There are too many ifs at this point to be sure but slow development is possible. Long range it looks like a carribean storm. Thats as far as I will go until a more consistant sign developes with this system. More tommorow I believe.
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cieldumort
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The tropical wave/mid-level low combo approaching the Yucatan has now been added as an Invest (Link to close-up IR). Despite repeated proclamations to the contrary, it is getting to be very hard to argue against a northward component to its movement and development, and even the 8PM TWD now explicitly describes it as being over water "A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 22N. "
Upper-level winds over the last several hours have become increasingly favorable, with high pressure forming aloft, inducing some outflow in just about all quadrants.
The low pressure which exists just above the surface to the SE of North Carolina has plenty of time to develop while over the toasty gulf stream and nearby waters. Upper-level winds are only marginal, but are expected to become at least somewhat more favorable over the next day or so. Probably a fish spinner if it transitions, but that's no guarantee.
Really, these two are already very close to land, and bear close watching. 94L is at least 48 hours before affecting the Antilles.
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dem05
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EDIT: While I was prepping the post, Cieldmort was already posting some of this info...Sorry for the duplication!!! Looks like we are sharing some of the same ideas!  )
Well...the Western Carrib. disturbance is now an unassigned Invest. That is, no invest number yet, but a floater invest has been placed on it.
Overall, the picture with this invest is different that what happened during Dean. Besides Dean being a hurricane, there are several differences at the mid and upper levels. Wouldn't rule out development just yet, and I wouldn't rule out Cieldmort's thoughts in the previous thread. However, I am not ready tocall for development or movement of this disturbed area...I'd rather outline some things to watch:
- First, on the last visible images, there is no evidence of a surface circulation. Please note the clouds moving off to the west over the Yucatan.
- Second, thunderstorm consolidation...With the tradewinds seeming tomove through at a decent clip from east to west, I'd suspect that any developments would have to originate at the mid levels...and be transferred to the surface. There is good thunderstorm clustering tonight...We will have to see if this "blob" is "go weapons hot for a diurnal thunderstorm maximum". If so...and if the thunderstorms last through the day...and mid level vorticity at the 500mb level or so exists... it will have a shot at slowly working toward the surface.
-Third, The upper level low as seen on the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Loops...
Western Atlantic Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
GoMex Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
If you watch these loops, I believe you will see the ULL over the Yucatan is dissapating...but it is being replaced by a new ULL over the East-Central GOMex. Interesting...It is propogating westward slowly, but unlike Dean, It isdue north of this disturbance...Justsomething else to watch...Mean time, Upper Level conditions could become more favorable. Also, the ULL may influence a more NWerly heading,
- Fourth...Models did not handle this evolution well...They do not see a new ULL low forming in the Gulf as I can see. Also, at this point, most 12Z models showed the main vorticity over Nicaragua/Hondoras...As you can see, this is not so.
- Fifth and finally...a wild card against development is another unassigned invest that is taking shape and was assigned a floater at the same time...It is south of Guatemala on the Pacific Side. If it develops...it is in close enough real estate to say that the disturbance in the western carribean will not develop...So this is something to watch too...It actually looks like it has better odds and that would put an end toany concerns in the Gulf or Western Carribean Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 29 2007 12:49 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Note that there was a low pressure center associated with this wave, but it has become increasingly difficult to locate it. At 00Z it seemed to be right on the coastline of east-central Honduras - due south of Roatan Island. Over the last couple of hours the wind at Roatan has been out of the east at a steady 25mph.
I'm sure that the thinking at was that if this center remained over land, the system would not intensify. To put the TWD in proper context, here is the complete paragraph:
"A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S
OF 22N. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA."
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
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o-k. three things looking good tonight.
they're all well outlined so far... i'll just toss some ideas and see what happens.
94L--that's a storm. it's not developing quickly or anything, but it will be. don't buy much into the guidance as there will likely be more storm there than indicated... but based on its location contact with the caribbean is highly possible. upstream developments will determine it's future track. it's going to have to fight with dry air, but should win out after a bit.
western caribbean--doesn't want to follow the rules. i thought the take of land interaction was sure fire, but the models taking it on a near shore trajectory turned out to be on the ball. possible that high level shear is helping whatever mid-level vorticity is there to translate north, and seems to be providing more ventilation than damage. belize is in the way, though. if it keeps its track more wnw it will cross more ocean in the BOC and possibly succeed where the low that invaded mexico yesterday failed--whatever is at the surface will travel over land and likely allow the upper circulation to become better defined... and take right off when it goes over water.
off the carolinas--didn't see that coming. more shortwave energy got left behind than projected by most models, on a more southerly trajectory. it's going to be stuck in a col and probably move erratically late this week. a shortwave should clip by around weekend time, but it's unclear if this will shunt it off. could just nudge it west then let the ridge grab it again. thing i'm not seeing is how it will shape the environment. this sucker looks like it will develop. it is going to modify the nearby upper features, and lay the groundwork for whatever 94L is to do it's thing.
all three systems can develop. the wave coming off also has some potential. ought to be something out there tomorrow, and probably at least two somethings on thursday.
HF 0218z29august
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Storm Hunter
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Well.. this thread is got some good posts in it tonight... out of the three area's we are watching... i think two of them have a good chance of forming into a tropical low. 1st. the area of the S. Carolina coast... its going to be around for a few days... while sitting over the gulf stream, its going to become better organized in my opinion... i do think that the next front coming into the east coast this weekend however will catch it and drag it off to the NE. I would expect to see surf pick up along the SE coast in coming days, and some good NE flow down the east coast, perhaps some dry air? #2. 94L in the atlantic... if it can survive another two-three days in the atlantic... then its going to be some player down the road in the carb.!!! #3 has impressed me tonight, the latest doesn't give it much chance, but the mid and upper level look impressive...(i would think that the Navy would throw up an Invest tag on it tonight around mid-night)... Pressures in the western Carb. are not falling at the surface at last check.. there is really a strong east to west flow at the surface. If it can mix down to the surface, it may have a chance...i'm just not sure it can right now... If the storms presist for the night, it may need some watching...Man, i feel bad for the folks that just went threw Dean, MORE TROPICAL mositure on the way.
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Hugh
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Well, I'll throw my 3 cents into the pot, for what it's worth, which is probably something on the order of a penny...
I'll start with the Caribbean since it's the closest to land. I can't detect any circulation on the floater... BUT the convection is pretty impresive. It appears to me that the main offshore convection is moving almost due NORTH, though, not WNW. If it can somehow find a nice warm body of water away from the land that its near, it's got a good chance. I'm thinking the Bay of Campeche, or the east or central Gulf, depending upon where the convection goes. It should be designated 95L before too much longer if it holds together, IMHO anyway.
94L is not looking impressive. Lots of water ahead of it, so it's got a chance down the road.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Clark
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A few comments, largely restating a lot of what HF had to say with a bunch of different words (hey, it was good stuff, and I can go with that!)...
94L: it may well be a storm, but it's embedded in one of the strongest SAL outbreaks of late right now. Low-latitude runner for now; let's see what happens once it gets to the Caribbean and the dust has had a chance to settle and/or mix out.
Carib disturbance: kinda reminds me of some of those pesky disturbances of 2005 that ended up spawning Bret, Gert, and Jose (among others). If it follows a similar trajectory, it's not out of the realm that it does something similar to that.
Carolinas disturbance: starting to get to that time of year where frontal boundaries make it far enough south to get interesting when they stall out over the Gulf Stream. It's already got a better-defined feature about which convection can develop and a system can be born as compared to the last case we had of this (northeast Gulf). Plugging my own WRF model for a second, it did suggest this morning that this will linger around for the next three days and slowly develop. Like the Caribbean disturbance, not out of the realm of possibility.
Wave train: two features of note, one due south of the Cape Verdes and another due east of them along the coast of Africa. SSTs are still below normal out there but at or above typical thresholds; it's the vertical instability associated with the strong ridge out there that is now the main problem. The models (GFS and ) are starting to get that 'look' to them, developing multiple features out that way over the next two weeks. Climo would argue for that alone, but so would the overriding atmospheric conditions.
The wave coming off the coast is probably too far north, though it does have a nice reflection about 12N/10W; the one south of the Cape Verdes will probably follow a similar path to 94L albeit without as much dust to contend with. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of these two eventually develop, with attention then turning to another wave about 14N/10E late in the week.
All of the atmospheric features that we'd normally want to see for a sustained active period in the tropics -- particularly in the deep tropics -- are starting to come together. I agree with HF's comment of "something" being out there tomorrow and possibly two "somethings" by Thursday and will go a step further to suggest a third "something" by Labor Day. Whether these somethings are more like the most recent 99L and don't really get going or if they end up being classified tropical systems, well... I'll leave that guessing game to everyone else.
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doug
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95L is posted for the low off the Carolinas drifting South along 75W.
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doug
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Ed in Va
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Early guidance for 95L (click on early guidance):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Wed Aug 29 2007 02:28 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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hmm... i think we can add a fourth area to the discussion soon... the area to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands looks impressive this far out! (we may be able to drop the tropical wave that ran into central america...)
Met-9 Airmass 24img loop... **Need fast connection**
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 29 2007 03:36 PM)
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hurricane80
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I just checked the ensemble (00UTC) and it shows Invest 95L moving SW towards Central Florida in 72 hours. Does anyone also see this?
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Experienced all hurricanes to affect Miami-Dade County since 1980.
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Wingman51
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I haven't seen these models on the board before. Do they measure something that the others do not? Can we get some feedback from some of the more knowledgeable sources here about these new models. Thanks
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NewWatcher01
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Clark should probably answer this and if i am wrong i hope he changes my post
but the way i understnand it is the mm5 model is being initialized with different model info
and these are the outputs...
reliable? i would say so as much as any of the better models
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Clark
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Regarding the models...
We're running two versions of the during the tropical season, one that uses the for initial and boundary conditions and one that uses a combined + dataset for initial conditions. The latter gives a better initial representation of any features in the domain, like 95L and TD Ten-E in the East Pacific.
The is a mesoscale model primarily designed for research purposes. The Air Force used to run an in real-time for the tropics with results that weren't anything to write home about. I would put more stock in the recognized global and mesoscale models such as the , , and than on anything our s spit out.
That said -- this feature off of the Carolinas (95L) is probably our best candidate for our next tropical cyclone in the basin. It'll take a day or so to undergo warm core transition (or tropical transition), but by late tomorrow I expect we'll likely have something of interest. It will likely meander around in the Gulf Stream for the next few days and with weak steering currents, erratic motion can be expected. Interests from the central Florida coast northward need to watch -- but not worry -- about this one over the coming days.
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ElizabethH
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Well, the models aren't that excited about the THREE disturbances out there. In reality, we only need to "keep an eye on" the one off the East Coast and the one out in the Atlantic. It's faily unique to see absolutely nothing as far as development in with the models this time of year. Conditions will slowly become more favorable for development with the Atlantic tropical wave, but we'll have a little time to watch it become a Depression.
Clark's right, I think 95L will become a despression first.
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Ed Dunham
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When things are quiet at a time in the season when things are not supposed to be quiet, I guess that storm trackers tend to get a little antsy. I tend to agree with your assessment - waves and Invests aside, there isn't anything in the basin that shows even a hint of better organization. 95L has been blasted by shear and reduced to a barely recognizable low-level swirl. 94L is also under a sheared environment and remains poorly organized - it could eventually amount to something, but its going to take more than a couple of days. Even the latest wave off of Africa looks anemic. The elements that define the overall 'pattern' in the basin still have not changed, so I really don't see much of anything developing for awhile.
Now that I've said all of that, I'm sure that something will pop up tomorrow (but I doubt it)
Cheers,
ED
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Ed in Va
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Agreed. What looks healthiest, at least in terms of convection, is the area over the Yucatan. If that holds together until it gets over the BofC, there could be some quick development. Could be an issue for TX down the road.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Storm Hunter
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well... Looks like we have three lows on the map in the tropical atlantic... How many will form? Good question ... just throwing in my two cents... just got back into town (PC) and took a look at the sats... I am much more impressed with 94L today, even though its doesn't have that deep convection going....Seems to me there is more cyclonic turning at the surface, (may be more enlongated) then there has been in the last few days... but watching the Vis floater ....kinda can see where the dust/dry air could be...to the north of the tropical wave.... I would think a center/low is around 46-47w 11-12n ish....(I know its marked as a 1010mb low)... it's moving to the west at about 10-15kts.
TWD, 2:05pm edt
as for 95L... its clearly exposed this afternoon... nice little surface reflections is easy trackable... Above (Mid-Upper level...just seems to Dry above 95L right now for anything to happen in the short term. If it can hang on as it appears to be drifting to the south, if should reach the warmer gulf stream and give its self a chance...
Well the latest tropical run suite TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE from about 18:00utc... keeps both atlantic systems in play...
Recon plan from this morning:
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 29 2007 09:10 PM)
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