MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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4:00PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update
Call has been made, Tropical Depression #6 forms East of the Caribbean. Advisories to begin at 5PM.
1:58PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update
Recon found a surface circulation, TD may have already formed.
1:50PM EDT 31 August 2007 Update
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 94L, recon is very near/in the system now and is checking it out.
Original Update
94L, which was persisting, but not really developing all week, has come together and looks to be forming into a tropical depression. Aircraft recon will be out there later today to make the determination as well.
Things may change rapidly, and it is likely we will have a depression at 11AM to track, or if not later this afternoon. It is moving westward into the Caribbean.
The current early model trends keep it in the Caribbean moving westward. As it develops a better model picture should be available. It is important to note that the strong ridging that kept Dean moving westward past Jamaica does not seem to be there this time, but a upper level high will likely fill the gap to keep it more westward. As of now, it seems most likely to be a straightforward westward moving track, there isn't much out there to suggest otherwise at the moment. -- also the system is located further south than dean was at the same longitude.
Central America/Nicaragua is the most likely westward position at this time, but it could change.
The extreme southeastern Caribbean is not all that conductive for Tropical Systems, as land interaction with South America tends to bring in dry air from the south. So this system has some rough times ahead if it does form.
Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be up very soon for the Windward Islands.
More to come soon.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Depression Six Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#6
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of TD#6
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#6
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#6 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#6
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#6
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#6 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
96L (Disturbance Southeast of New Jersey)) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 96L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Well, it certainly is beginning to *look* like the Hurricane Hunters will find a closed off low, with steadily lowering surface pressures. This one has TD and Storm written all over it, just judging by its steadily improving appearance.
It seems likely, IMHO, that there is no turning back now. Felix is in the hopper. While you've all slept overnight, I've been watching this little invest mushroom into something more than just a 'little invest'. (Remember, I am 6 hours behind Florida time)
Judging from the greatly increased aerial coverage and the intensity of convection, I'd hazard that surface pressures are beginning to lower, and banding features are blossoming out everywhere, indicating a steady increase in organization, when all the convection works together to lower surface pressures, which in turn steadily increases the wind speeds.
But of course, you all know this already. It's just always interesting, from a weather hobbyist perspective, to see it happening right before your eyes, time and again. Let's hear it for the animated time-lapse satellite loops! 
Additionally, the disturbance is beginning to exhibit a greatly improved upper-level outflow pattern, with good outflow to the NE, and recently, beginning towards the S and SW, as well. Good ventilation will only support intensification.
94L is quite likely to become TS Felix in the not-too-distant future. The has been out for some time now, the thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly favorable and the 'negative' factors seem to be dwindling.
It'll be interesting to see what the Recon mission will reveal with regard to thermodynamic structure and wind fields.
And it'll be interesting, too, to see what becomes of the 'alleged' FAMCG (Far Atlantic Monsoon Cyclonic Gyre  ), currently cycling within a large area SW of the Cape Verde Islands, in the coming days as it seems that the gyre might be setting up shop there for a'while.
The latest tropical weather discussion (2am EDT, as I write) indicates " ... BROAD ELONGATED LOW / MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.", which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of a monsoon cyclonic gyre, as discussed in the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum. Pretty interesting stuff. Well worth a look.
Hold onto your hats and batten down the hatches, as it appears that "Ferocious Felix" will be the start to a quick succession of storms in the coming weeks, in a still yet predicted 'above average' season. 
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Flash: has just issued a 'SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT'.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/311310.shtml?
Apparently, they're impressed with its steadily improving satellite signature, as well.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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I'd be interested to know from the Mets here (or others more in the know than I) if 94L keeps heading in a fairly straight forward westerly direction, what, if any, impact could the northern coast of Venezula have on this developing system?
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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The post on the home page as well as some of the model runs are saying that 94L/TD6/Felix is to continue a generally westwards track. I have to disagree with this somewhat after looking at the 700 - 850 MB Steering Layer Map from CIMSS. The map shows a strong ridge in place, centered east of Bermuda, extending as far west as midway between Bermuda and the East Coast. Also, the southwestern corner of the high has very fast steering currents which lie just ahead of the system. Should it enter this area, we could see a brief, but rapid and significant northward jog of the system. If this occurs, the two major scenarios I could see would be for the system to go out to sea or possibly affect Florida and The Bahamas. Also, the Gulf Coast may have to watch this system in the future as the National Weather Services offices in Houston, Lake Charles, Slidell, and Mobile are all forecasting a retrograding trough over the northern GOM to spawn an upper-level low over central Texas which would move northeastwards causing a breakdown of the high pressure over the area.
In summary, everyone along the United States coast should watch this storm (check daily updates for now). As for the models, I do not put a whole lot of stock in them at this point as it is early and the storm has not become established yet. Also, Recon data that is inserted into the models can cause a massive impact on model guidance as we saw with Hurricane Dean.
Link to Steering Layer Map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Edit:
Almost forgot! This map from the HPC shows a low pressure and trough over the north-central United States which is forecast to help the breakdown in the ridge over the eastern half of the late next week.
Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
Edited by weatherguy08 (Fri Aug 31 2007 10:38 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I see your point. But, the models don't see it so... have to see if any of the next few model runs show any variation other than westward bound.
late next week might be too late for THIS system.. but any following might feel the weakness and have a different track from Dean2
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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That's one thing I am wondering about. About how fast will this thing move. Because again, if you look on the CIMSS map, there is a potential for a northward jog during the next 24 hours. In my opinion, I do not think this will move it very far to the north but it could delay its westward movement. In other words, it could buy the system some time before hurrying off to the west. But I agree, we should for sure continue to watch trends from the models and of course like I said earlier, if the decides to insert the Recon data into the models, we could see a shift in the guidance. Also, the breakdown of the high over the eastern is forecast to occur on Day 7 (next Friday) which is a very long way off. My point being that it may not be too late for our storm to "enter" the weakness as it will take 5 - 7 days to traverse the Caribbean. Remember that Dean which was cruising across the Caribbean, if my memory is right, it took it four days to go from the Windwards to the Yucatan. So if the system takes that northward jog, which if it does I would predict it to last 12 - 24 hours, it could delay the system an extra day in moving across the Caribbean.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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slower than Dean..so true
but that weakness also has shear doesn't it?
i noticed a few models "lost" Felix after it gets into the carib
good link tho to hold onto... because if felix doesn't stay low could gain a bit in lat...
time will tell
pretty little system today
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Hmmm. No 11am advisory on a "newly formed TD6", as some of us were expecting.
I suppose that, with the good folks with 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron heading for the disturbance, decided to avail themselves of all that great technology, and let the Recon Data decide what the status of the disturbance should be. I can understand their call.
And, as just noted, the recon data will be inserted into the global models, providing a much better and more accurate picture of what will evolve over the coming days. So they're hedging their bet with that Special Statement, and letting the awesome power of technology have the actual honors of making that crucial determination.
And maybe the 'Special Tropical Weather Statement' was issued because they thought it'd catch more attention from 'casual' visitors to their home page (and the media) if they FLASH it up there, whereas not everyone 'digs down' and reads the nitty-gritty on a routine basis, like many of us.
All I can say, IMHO, it sure looks like and could very well be a Depression already. And has just increased the winds to 30 Kts. Felix is ready to pop out of the oven. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Everything is moving west, including that current, which is clearly seen in the Sat pics... However, the ULL and trough in the West Carribean is not moving too fast so I do tend to agree that a more NW track is in the future, just not too sure as to when or for how long as the flow returns to westerly around the Greater Antilles.
In general this is a very confusing pattern effecting what this system will do, in contrast to Dean which was on a fast track all the way. I have never seen so tight track agreement throughout as that system (Dean) generated. The models will differ greatly on this one.
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doug
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Well I guess they wanted to wait to be SURE... or they want to prove the value of Recon.. I mean why bother to send a plane in to determine what is going on in the system if you can make the call from Sat obs and Quikscat? And... really, nothing like recon so ..
I'd imagine an upgrade around 2.. 2:30... official advisories maybe at 5.
Maybe they want to be sure it's a Tropical Depression and not a Tropical Storm?
We'll see but either way a headsup is basically a press release to the media to get your act together because we will probably have film at 11. News media and other weather sources..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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different year and different time of year.. different steering currents but you can't just assume a storm that comes through at that low level will keep going west as weather is fluid..
don't see anything in models to show other than west but its still early
and after the planes get more info the models will be more accurate
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/FLORA/track.gif
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
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Have I majorly missed something or are people using "Felix" just assuming that this system will be upgraded to a storm? Just a little confused as I've been away for a couple days and don't remember hearing about another storm yet. Thanks!
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"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."
2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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" Felix" should not be used...this system is unclassified and the historical data for storms in the proximity this may have to the continent indicate it may not develop at all beyond what is now there.
It is gradually building the strength and organization to become classified. What may be holding it back now is the LLC is still large and it may have to tightnen down some. I have not seen any recon data, if they even went in, the last Quicscat I saw was 25-30 mph and that's not good enough.
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doug
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NewWatcher01
Unregistered
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16:54:00 14.00N 60.45W 410.4 mb 7,422 m - From 69° (ENE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
that is the latest and isnt near the center yet
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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recon is indeed already in and investigating 94L's environment.
Here's one of the latest messages, decoded
Fri Aug 31 2007
1642 GMT
Latitude 14.7 N
Longitude 61.1 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 22999 feet (7010 meters)
Flight level winds 80 degrees at 16 knots (18 mph)
Temperature -14 C Dewpoint -48 C
Remarks: AF305 01FFA INVEST OB 03
Thought I would start to highlight something else -
Honorable mention to the quasi-tropical cyclone up around 42N. Hopefully we see an Invest tag slapped on it soon, such that model runs and microwave images become more available. Some tropical cyclogenesis is occurring within a deeply-stacked, non-tropical low... embedded within the parent large, cyclonic gyre, ESE of Newfoundland.
Here's what the latest has to say about it
A NEARLY STATIONARY AND RATHER STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Satellite imagery would support classification, but are holding off on doing so until RECON gets in. If it was 1000 miles further east then it would probably have been classified on imagery alone. The advantage is they will have a sure answer in the next hour or two. Given the motion it looks likely that northern Venezuela will get at least some wet and windy weather, but it is also possible the centre will track pretty near the coast. This interaction will probably limit its intensification during the time period too.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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last check on recon... they were directly south of Barbados... dropping in alt. down to about 16,000ft.
At 17:14:00Z (last observation), the observation was 36 miles (57 km) to the S (182°) from Bridgetown, Barbados... i expect will have atleast a TD.... maybe a TS... but again looking at the models... this looks to keep heading west... another central american system?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 31 2007 01:30 PM)
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Climate Aficionado
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
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That is some sight off of Newfie...
ESE NF
Edited by Climate Aficionado (Fri Aug 31 2007 01:34 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looks like we may have a TD. on HDOB the winds shifted, like there was a center... possible closed? more coming.. they went through a center.. winds at ft. lv. went down to 2kts.. (17:47:00Z at11.52N 58.52W at an alt. of (~ 28.54 inHg) 392 meters(~ 1,286 feet).... Flt. level winds From 94° at 2 knots
(From the E at ~ 2.3 mph) ).. more coming
**haven't seen any winds that would indicate a TS, yet... flt. lvl. winds around 15-25mph at 1,286ft***
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 31 2007 02:11 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon just went back through the center..... winds did shift... looks like we have a TD... haven't seen a vortex drop... winds went from ENE to WSW... flight level temp didn't change that much... which i would think its not closed?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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