Hurricane Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean

Wow. I've been away for the day and look what's happened. Felix becomes a Hurricane!

I was speculating in my last post that Felix appeared to be steadily intensifying, just from it's ever improving satellite signature and noticing an increase in the extent and amount and organinzation of it's developing rainband structures, coupled with it's highly favorable thermodynamic environment and steadily improving outflow.

Additionally, the inner core convection has remained quite deep and tightly wound for at least the last day, and an eyewall feature has finally emerged, as Felix has matured into a hurricane remarkably fast. As in 27 hours fast!

Remember. The little invest which mushroomed into TD-6 occured just 2 nights ago, during the diurnal convective maximum cycle. And, as was widely posted, the invest could well have been at TD strength well before the Hurricane Hunters arrived on the scene and confirmed with instrumentation and sensors the fact that bonafide cyclogenesis had indeed occured.

So the first advisory on TD-6 went up at 5pm EDT Friday. And now, as of 8pm EDT Saturday, we have Hurricane Felix. From Depression to Hurricane in 27 Hours!

During this period, central pressures have dropped from 1008mb to 993mb, a drop of only 15mb, or an average of about a half-millibar per hour. And I don't think that quite meets the criteria for the definition of 'Explosive Intensification' of a tropical cyclone, and I'll look for that info and add it into the post later.

But even giving, say, a day and a half - the past 36 hours from now - we've went from just another little ho-hum invest that *none* of the global models were picking up on, let alone prognosticating a full-blown hurricane in a mere 36 hours, to a now fully developed Classic Caribbean Hurricane.

And judging from Felix's already rather potent appearance, which only steadily continues to improve, I'd underscore my previous thinking that Felix may very well become a Major Hurricane, and sooner rather than later.

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>> Shear is expected to remain low to non-existent, so an even stronger hurricane wouldn't be out of the question by the end of the forecast period.

>>Remember that mid and long range *intensity forecasts* have a much greater degree of error than do those regarding location, and all environmental factors appear to be favorable, once Felix pulls away from Venezuela and is able to more easily expand its wind field and overall circulation envelope.

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And, since that last post, it has indeed greatly expanded it's wind field and the extent of its circulation envelope, with it's rapidly developing, far-flung outer rainbands beginning to give this storm a much larger appearance.

We'll see what becomes of the pressure falls over the next day or two, and see if the criteria for 'Explosive Deepening' is attained and just how massive and potent Felix will eventually become. It certainly has all the earmarks of becoming a 'Dangerous Force' with which to contend.

And a slightly more northward track would certainly put much beloved Jamaica 'under the gun', again, where a TS Watch is already in effect.

It's certainly beginning to look like Felix could continue to evolve, and quite rapidly, into a very potent Classic Caribbean Hurricane. Let's just hope the ridging holds firm and keeps him far south of Jamaica and US Interests.

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