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Archives >> 2007 Storm Forum

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: 99L [Re: doug]
      #77930 - Tue Sep 04 2007 05:57 PM

Some of the models are develping 99L ranging from a TS to a Cat 3. Really too early to tell as the models keep changing. When and if there is something to grab on to, we'll see.

Did you notice oil went up today on Dr. Grey's forcast of 6 more storms? The way I read it, Felix was one of them.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 99L [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #77935 - Tue Sep 04 2007 08:15 PM

I think they have the intensity off... Ive seen the models and just can't buy into that intensity right now.. not from a system that has so much shear it is having problems forming.

That being said.. if the HWRF said it was going to be that strong I might give it more creedence. The track has been off with it on Dean but the intensity was on the money sadly.

Watching and waiting to see a real center come forward.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: 99L [Re: doug]
      #77938 - Tue Sep 04 2007 09:05 PM

at 5pm you gave it (99l) less than a 3 but how is 99l looking now as of 9pm tonight? does it still get only a 3?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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inverst1
Unregistered




Re: 99L [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #77939 - Tue Sep 04 2007 09:29 PM

NRL as well as Dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a TD already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could TD before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 99L [Re: inverst1]
      #77940 - Tue Sep 04 2007 10:04 PM

We have a long way to go with 99L, but, for what it's worth, the recent models have all shifted to recurvature before the EC. See the main page for more.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: 99L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #77946 - Tue Sep 04 2007 11:55 PM

Officially still an invest at 11pm. Convection isn't over the center of vorticity.

However, satellite IR presentation is steadily getting better and NHC said they might need to initiate it sometime tomorrow. They still aren't sure if it will be tropical or subtropical.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: 99L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77947 - Wed Sep 05 2007 01:32 AM

I might have to repost this every six hours.
Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:


Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .

scottsvb


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: 99L [Re: LoisCane]
      #77948 - Wed Sep 05 2007 01:35 AM

Quote:

I think they have the intensity off... Ive seen the models and just can't buy into that intensity right now.. not from a system that has so much shear it is having problems forming.

That being said.. if the HWRF said it was going to be that strong I might give it more creedence. The track has been off with it on Dean but the intensity was on the money sadly.

Watching and waiting to see a real center come forward.




Not sure how one can certain of intensity suspicion considering that intensity is the lowest skill of all predictive efforts regarding tropical systems.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: 99L [Re: inverst1]
      #77949 - Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM

Quote:

NRL as well as Dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a TD already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could TD before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?




I don't think we can be certain this is a depression already. There are baroclinic signatures present and so long as that is the case, there inserts a question as to the storm's physical make-up. The term "subtropical low" is probably more accurate, or subtropical depression if that is what is being referred?

I have posted topical related to phase-transition and am admittedly a little biased so far in my own interpretation of this happening faster. There was a narrow window earlier this evening and late afternoon, when the UL winds demonstrated a sudden organization into a jet core pointing NE. This actually stopped the "NW" shear, and aligned just NW of a large canopy of strong divergence, separate, and over the center of active convection. This led me to believe we had two distinct scenarios in play that were simply a matter of being very close in proximity to oneanother. Fact of the matter is, there may have been two identifications temporarilty. But, the synoptic-scale forcing of said jet, and, perhaps a depression forming just barely SE of that jet axis have since appeared to team up, belaying the purer phase-transition.

So, yes and no. I think this is a probably a weak subtropical low feeding off some very high oceanic heat content in the area, while getting an ascent assist by the evactuative capacity of the jet max. This appears to be utilizing the dynamic processes of both worlds -- hense hybrid, subtropical, or whatever one wants to call it.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 05 2007 01:51 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 99L [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77968 - Wed Sep 05 2007 02:52 PM

For what it's worth, T numbers are now 2.0/2.0, I'd certainly consider it a sheared depression. But as typically the case, NHC waits to call a system a system during the year (more likely to upgrade during post season analysis). So they may wait for convection to get closer to the center before calling it (which means it may skip ever being an official 'depression').

Of course the naval site has a TCFA up for 99L but that's still a coin flip.

has anyone else noticed that old 98l is still out there spinning away?

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 99L [Re: Bloodstar]
      #77991 - Thu Sep 06 2007 08:55 AM

It's funny everyone on wunderground and on here are writing this storm off and you just wait.. because the same thing with Felix is gonna happen with this one, it will start to develop later on today or tonight.. write when everybody looses faith.. you know, shear is expected to weaken, Just give it some time folks, don't write it off yet, when a storm becomes tropical it WILL loose convection and maybe even structure but once it's fully tropical and out of the shear zone, it will develop. The shear is decreasing a tad, and it's moving a bit southeast into marginal or even favorable conditions, however I expect a tropical storm or minimal huricane at landfall around the Carolinas, not a catgeory 3. I'll give it a 7/10 chance of development, lets see what happens today, it seems like some minimal convection is trying to wrap around the center.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: 99L [Re: allan]
      #77994 - Thu Sep 06 2007 11:32 AM

Underground has alot of wishcasting and no knowledgable good Mets that post there. Im not talking about the blogers. Im not so sure this will be tropical..but still my path is straight forward with a turn towards Cape Hatteras..brushing by to the east and then heading NE out to sea.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: 99L [Re: scottsvb]
      #77995 - Thu Sep 06 2007 11:45 AM

I agree, models are in straight agreement (except for the clips but that's a climatology model), anyways.. any of you remember a very similiar storm 5 years ago? Subtropical Strom Gustav developed right around where this is.. well, maybe a bit more north.. it took the same exact path models are taking this..
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20027.asp

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77996 - Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM

Well, I have to admit...my opinion on this has changed...

I do not speak for anyone else, of course, but I believe there is reason here, quite valid actually, to believe nothing is going to evolve of this. This phrase people like to use, "Storm Cancel" seems more plausible than not.

1) The upper level synoptic evolution has changed. 2 days ago...the modeled solutions did not carry this TUTT, now, they do. That has to immediately hoist a red flag.

2) Upper level lows are, excuse the cliche, notoriously poorly handled. Why? Because for some reason the physics in the models seem to have a problem handling their internal workings, but also how those workings relate to the outside environment.

3) Enters a fledgling little sickly TD infant caught up in the throws of its circulatoin field? Not likely...

4) Moreover, now that the GFS has stipulated to the presence of this TUTT, look what it is doing with it AND the circulation of this TD seed? It is retrograding them west toward the SE Coast, in tandem, such that this seed never really gets into a favorable environment as previously thought:
06z H500 evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_500_all.htm
06z MSLP evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_slp_all.htm

...We cannot expect this would-be TD to end up in a favorable environment when it is entangled with any such retrograding TUTT, and that is factually what the GFS is suggesting here. The ECM is not really different than this, either and there we have it. A model consensus for confusion more than anything else, because unless the TUTT its self somehow goes through a phase transition with extreme rapidity -- not likely to happen -- this system more likely becomes a victom of emergent perturbation -- or in other words, perhaps the TUTT emerged spontaneously from those old chaos lessons we learned in our Junior year.

There has been a surplus of diurnal convection in the deep south and MV the last 2 days and I noticed immediately down sream there was a sharpened mid and upper level ridge curvature along with stronger winds.. These dove SE off the SE U.S. Coast and I think literally imparted a physical exertion of forcing a trough response due to "buckling" of the flow. I do not believe the models handled that synoptic forcing by latent heat flux of convection taking place -- the case needs a further study.

We'll see...but I am not at this time altogether very confident for any tropical rendition of what is going on out there. Even the 12Z NAM and its oft' intensity lust has backed way off and has a pultry 1000'ish mb low nearing the Carolinas.

Hopefully, this TUTT does not go on to interfere and this TD goes ahead and turns into the tempest that everyone seems to want. But, at this moment, that is definitely the lesser of the probabilities.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 06 2007 11:53 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #78000 - Thu Sep 06 2007 07:58 PM

How suddenly September 2007 seems to have stopped, and 2006 seems to have replaced it. For now.

Some "pictures are worth a thousand words" before & afters of 99L:

Before:


After:


Invest Pancake


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 572
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #78057 - Fri Sep 07 2007 10:54 PM


Subtropical declaration is quite fitting for this feature considering my own concerns recently posted in this thread. It's interaction with the TUTT have led directly to it evolution in this regard...

The question now becomes, will it complete phase transition and become purely tropical? Timing landfall will be critical in determing that... If it moves quickly toward the Coast and comes onboard than naturally it will only transition into a non-entity. If moves slower than modeled remains seaward for long period of time, than it will be sitting over some of the hottest waters (Gulf Stream) in the Atlantic Basin and a transition will likely occur.


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