MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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8:10AM Update 4 September 2007
Felix was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane at the 8PM advisory, and now is the second category 5 hurricane to make landfall in less than a month in Central America. This is the first time that two Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the same year. Prior to this year the last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall was hurricane Andrew.
Original Update
Felix has kept the more west than north motion throughout the system's life, and is now approaching Nicaragua as a strong Category 4 system.
The location it is making landfall will make it much more than a coastal event, and has the potential for inland damage in the form of floods and mudslides along with wind damage.
More to come later.
98L has lost a lot of punch and seems much less likely to form into anything, in fact, has stopped calling it an "invest" altogether.
The area off of Georgia/Florida is still persisting, but is in no immediate position to form into a depression, but still has the potential to over the next few days as it meanders off our coastline.
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Felix Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Felix
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Felix
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Felix
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Felix (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Felix
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Felix
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Felix -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
99L (Area off Georgia) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 99L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
98L (East Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 98L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
Second category five landfall of the year underway! 
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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For ever mile forward speed Felix slows down he will do more damage... the slower the worst and as bad as the increase in winds are ...it is a small core and they will be experienced over a small area but for every mile per hour forward speed he slows it will be felt over a much larger area inland.. very bad.
Just saying as much as we watch the windspeed the real damage will come over the greater area from flooding and mudslides and slow forward speed is a more serious problem and I am worried about it's slower forward speed.
and go figure he bends left not right at landfall
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Felix has the potential to produce a catastrophe very similar in impact to Hurricane Mitch. Yesterday's weakening/reorganization phase came at a very bad time because it allowed Felix to regain Cat5 strength prior to landfall. Even though the coastal communities of Nicaragua near the point of landfall will be destroyed, the biggest impact will be when Felix moves over the highlands of Nicaragua and Honduras over the next several days. Deforestation from the proliferation of banana and coffee plantations have denuded hillsides in this region, and flooding and mudslides will be enhanced because of it. This will be another sad hurricane disaster for Central America, and I can only pray that Felix does not slow down further.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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First visible satellite in of the storm. Impressive. I've attached the image. It looks like it has made landfall.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Looks like the only city in Nicaragua which will be directly affected is Puerto Cabezas and even this one will be on the left hand side of Felix. In Honduras the closest city would be Puerto Lempira, which should not get CAT5 winds. So maybe this one will not cause too much damage along the coast and will weaken enough by the time it reaches the most populated areas. I suppose that the biggest risk from Felix would be rain in the mountainous areas, right?
Judging from the map I have, there are only two roads into Puerto Cabezas. There is an airport, but it looks small and will probably take a bad beating. So getting help there will be done helicopters (of which Nicaragua has about 50 usable for transporting rescue teams, engineers, supplies). Hopefully, the authorities will be able to heliport equipment and troops to open the airport.
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nicaragua
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: corn island, nicaragua
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puerto cabezas is getting pounded now. i have been on the phone about every 15 minutes with a co worker of mine
light poles down, trees down, roofs blowing off, houses being blown apart. the the airport in port has one of the longest runways in nicaragua, and the road into puerto is bad on a good day. also you have thousands of people living within 50 miles north . miskito key, big sandy bay, wawa and several other small villages. there have been several distress calls from this area. cell phone reception is poor and in and out. but i have been able to have contact so far this morning. it is not looking good for this area.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
puerto cabezas is getting pounded now. i have been on the phone about every 15 minutes with a co worker of mine
light poles down, trees down, roofs blowing off, houses being blown apart. the the airport in port has one of the longest runways in nicaragua, and the road into puerto is bad on a good day. also you have thousands of people living within 50 miles north . miskito key, big sandy bay, wawa and several other small villages. there have been several distress calls from this area. cell phone reception is poor and in and out. but i have been able to have contact so far this morning. it is not looking good for this area.
do you have access to TV and radio? what are the autorities saying about their plans to assist the population there?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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Nicaragua:
May you and your people be safe during this storm.
So far, it seems from the satelite images that the eye of Felix is now completely inland. This will mean that it will start to lose intensity fast. Neverthless, you can expect heavy rains and as others have said, there is the danger of floods and mudslides. By all means, keep safe, and good luck.
Jorge G. Nakazawa
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nicaragua
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: corn island, nicaragua
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MANAGUA IS SENDING MORE TROOPS INTO THE AREA. THE RADIO IS ASKING EVERYONE TO STAY IN IF THEY CAN. THERE IS STILL ALOT OF THINGS FLYING THROUGH THE AIR. THE WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SOME BUT STILL FAIRLY STRONG. I WILL KNOW MORE IN A WHILE WHEN I CAN CONTACT PUERTO AGAIN.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Two fives in the same year is pretty incredible.
We wish the best for the people in Central America who are having to go through this storm. Our thoughts are with you all.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
MANAGUA IS SENDING MORE TROOPS INTO THE AREA. THE RADIO IS ASKING EVERYONE TO STAY IN IF THEY CAN. THERE IS STILL ALOT OF THINGS FLYING THROUGH THE AIR. THE WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SOME BUT STILL FAIRLY STRONG. I WILL KNOW MORE IN A WHILE WHEN I CAN CONTACT PUERTO AGAIN.
I just looked up Corn Island and realized that you also got hit (albeit I guess that the eye of Felix must have passed about 200km north of you). How are things on Corn Island? Stay safe & remember that most hurricane casualties occur *after* the hurricane has past!
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
Edited by vineyardsaker (Tue Sep 04 2007 10:45 AM)
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
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It looks like felix slow down a lot once it made landfall. Strengthened just before landfall and decreased in forward speed. I cannot imagine the damage he's causing.
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b.wind
Unregistered
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What's mind-boggling is two Cat 5 landfalls within the space of two weeks. Never before have we had witnessed two Atlantic basin hurricanes reach Cat 5 within two weeks of each other.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Also heard on the news tonight that this is also the first time that two hurricanes had landfalls on North America on the same day (Henriette on Baja California).
Looks like it's track is much more south than the models showed. It made that course change just before landfall and has tracked parallel to the border ever since.
Still has fairly good structure, but it hasn't hit the mountains yet.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I believe that the kept having it go south, sort of zigzag a bit wsw and west til it got to the Pacific vs the other models that insisted on bending the track to the right and bringing it into the BOC.
Once the bought into Felix it did rather well with him.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wanted to say thanks to nicaragua for giving us some ground truth reports from a part of the world not many of us are familiar with.
my take on things is fairly straightforward and i don't have much time tonight, but here goes.
felix keeps nudging southwestward as it goes inland and i suspect that some vestige of it will get onto the pacific side, rather than end up near the bay of campeche. unless something named crosses the will probably rename it, but it will be felix either way. i'd say chances are good. bad side of that is, it's slowing down, and i'd expect the extreme rainfall potential especially in el salvador, extreme southeastern mexico, and southern guatemala to be very high.
99L is going to be gabrielle. it might have that tag right now if a plane were to recon it. i was also probably precocious in calling it a threat to the florida to hatteras area. the system has moved far enough east that a return to places like florida and georgia is unlikely, low probability for south carolina.. but of course that perennial favorite of north carolina is quite likely to get a visit. i would not be in the least surprised if gabrielle is there per recon tomorrow, and if it starts intensifying quite quickly late in the week. dependent on how quickly it mixes out the dry air that will plague it, there is a chance of a significant hurricane hitting north carolina up the coast from there later this week.. as the reasonable models are showing. of course this thing can always do the ophelia thing.. never respond to the ridging and just mill around offshore, or come at the coast and then veer away. just the same, there's a pretty good chance the carolinas will take a licking this weekend. stay tuned.
good ol' 98L is still there. it's not generating deep convection and has been lapped by the wave to the rear, but has actually stayed barely coherent and is perhaps finally going to get the push of the trades back. whether it starts trying to go or not, some of the models have the next emerging wave developing faster than it can. something ought to pop up out there in the next few days either way.
HF 0026z05september
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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With Henriette apparently tracking up the Sea of Cortez and toward the Mexican state of Sonora, I was wondering if I could get some opinions from the experts here about the prospects for meaningful rainful in Southern Arizona. The annual summer monsoon there should be just about over. But hurricanes, especially Pacific hurricanes, sometimes bring us lots of rain. And I was wondering if even some of the huge bollus of moisture from Felix could somehow get entrained into Henriette or at least whether we can expect Henriette alone to bring us much needed rain--or even enough rain to cause flooding (in the desert, it doesn't take much if you live near a wash). Thoughts? Forecasts?
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
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99L is looking a lot more organized tonight. Much more convection thats seems to be sustaining itself to the right of the center. I wonder if the model concensus will start to become more accurate now.
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IslandLover
Unregistered
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Does anyone know what damage was done to the Corn Islands off the coast of Nicaragua?
(User should have registered and sent this as a PM to the Registered User from Corn Island - see previous posts above.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 11 2007 07:37 AM)
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